-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
166
FXUS61 KOKX 111123
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough lingers nearby today and early tonight with high
pressure settling in for mid week. Weak high pressure eventually
gives way to a cold front late Friday. High pressure will then
follow for the weekend and continues to build into the start of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes attm as the forecast remains right on track.

For today with a trough of low pressure lingering at the
surface and high pressure slowly nosing in, look for a weaker
synoptic pressure gradient than yesterday. This should allow for
more in the way of sea breeze development for this afternoon.
Temperatures will be very similar to Monday, perhaps one or two
degrees warmer with mainly middle and a few upper 70s for
daytime maxes. Again, quite comfortable with dew point readings
mainly in the middle 50s with broken sunshine towards early
afternoon. Spokes of upper level energy will pivot through from
time to time with a weakness in the height field and lower
heights lingering. This will lead to more in the way of cumulus
with daytime heating. Look for perhaps some taller cumulus along
any lower level convergence. CAM reflectivity forecasts
suggestive of at least a slight chance of a few showers for the
afternoon, but have kept this chance minimal.

For Tuesday night high pressure will be directly over the area
providing mainly clear skies. Temperatures once again will be very
comfortable with lows in the 50s again in outlying areas, and lower
to a few middle 60s into the metropolitan area, and around 60 at the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level troughing fills in and pushes up to the northeast on
Wednesday. Another weak shortwave attempts to slide in from the west
later in the day. The dry airmass begins to undergo some slight
modification later in the day and into Wednesday night. Still one
more fairly comfortable day in terms of fairly low humidity for this
time of year, although dew point readings for coastal sections do
approach 60 later in the day. Seasonable temperatures once gain with
highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Sea breeze enhancement
takes place quickly in the afternoon with a weak pressure gradient
in place and high pressure in control. Some higher res guidance does
indicate a slight chance of shower or isolated t-shower activity
across northeast sections later in the day. Thus with a weak
shortwave pivoting through, have added slight chance shower wording
for northeastern CT zones for the afternoon. Otherwise it will be a
predominantly dry and seasonable day.

For Wednesday night it will be slightly warmer as the area undergoes
more of a return flow regime. This will begin to usher in warmer and
slightly more humid air into the region. Lows will be in the 60s for
the city and the coast, with upper 50s to around 60 across much of
the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave ridge crosses the region on Thursday with weak high
pressure at the surface. Dry weather will continue with 850 mb warm
air advection late Thursday into early Friday. Temperatures will not
be anomalously warm aloft and onshore flow will increase in the
afternoon to evening on Thursday. This means coastal locations will
be cooler than interior locations with afternoon temperatures
ranging from the upper-70s to near 90. Most will see low/mid-80s.

Warm air advection aloft increases on Friday as a shortwave ridge
gives way to a shortwave trough. Max temperatures may be a few
degrees warmer on Friday than on Thursday. This will occur in tandem
with increasing surface dewpoints in the upper-60s to near 70.
Moisture gets advected in from onshore flow ahead of a cold front
that will push through late Friday as PWATs could be greater than 2
inches which would exceed the max moving average seen on SPC`s
sounding climatology page. Showers are expected ahead and along the
cold frontal passage on Friday and given the forcing, available
moisture, and warm air columns, some brief heavy downpours can not
be ruled out. Still thinking CAPEs could end up higher than the
currently progged 1000 J/kg from global models, the shortwave would
promote steepening mid-level lapse rates, and there could be upper
jet streak lift as well. Thunderstorms look likely to occur,
particularly for the interior, some of which could be strong. Still
too early to have too much confidence in the severe weather
potential, but given the aforementioned ingredients along with
global models giving 0-6km shear values anywhere between 30 kt and
60 kt, trends will need to be monitored for the possibility.

High pressure then builds in from the NW during the weekend with dry
conditions and more comfortable dewpoints. High temperatures still
above normal both days. An strengthening upper-level ridge with
increasingly anomalous 850mb temperatures could lead to
significantly warmer temperatures to start next week with mid-90s
looking like a possibility. Right now, the Canadian looks to be the
only 00Z global model that is not catching on to an increasingly
amplified ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. A surface trough may lead to isolated showers today, but
given the minimal chance, it has not been included in the TAFs.
A small chance for thunder exists near city terminals, but any
thunder activity will likely occur out of the area and farther
south in New Jersey.

Winds are currently north at city terminals and some terminals
are variable. Light N-NNE flow continues today before sea
breezes develop late morning into the afternoon. Winds shift to
the S at most sites except for Lower Hudson Valley terminals.
Winds will return to variable Tuesday night. Tomorrow winds
will turn west, with another sea breeze possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze may be off by 1-3 hours.

Slight shower chance was too low to include in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday - Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly tranquil conditions continue on the coastal waters with light
winds and seas generally around 2 ft through Wednesday. A return
flow gets established with a southwest flow regime by Wednesday
night. S winds on the ocean for Thursday and Friday may gust near 25
kt, primarily west of Fire Island Inlet, with seas possibly reaching
5 ft on Friday. Aside from this, sub-advisory conditions are
expected through the long term period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The potential exists for moderate to heavy downpours in showers and
thunderstorms on Friday. Hard to pinpoint exact risks this far out,
but will be monitoring trends closely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There remains a low risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches today
and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...