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614
FXUS61 KOKX 142336
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this evening with high
pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure
becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by
Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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The line of severe/marginally severe thunderstorms moved east
of the watch area, and the watch has been cancelled. The line
was moving into a more stable airmass, and the storms continues
to slowly diminish.

A cold front will be pushing through the forecast area into
this evening, shifting east of us overnight.

An isolated stronger storm remains possible early this evening,
until the line pushes farther to the east into more stable air.
Also with tall/skinny CAPE will be present with PWATs expected
to to climb up to around 1.6 inches and heavy rainfall remains
possible, with a local flood threat, and a few flood advisories
remain in effect.

Rain threat should be done by daybreak, with low temperatures
mostly in the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and less muggy
conditions as dewpoints fall to around 50. Both days look to feature
mostly sunny conditions, with some cumulus development on Saturday
and perhaps some cirrus streaming by on Sunday. Highs mostly around
80 on Saturday, with slightly cooler conditions on Sunday for
coastal areas as winds shift onshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The key point for the long term is that there is increasing
confidence in a prolonged heat wave in the middle to late next week
with heat indices approaching or exceeding 100F at times Tuesday
through Friday.

Ongoing deep-layered ridging on Monday continues into at least
Wednesday. Models show slight flattening of the ridge aloft with
maybe a weak surface trough setting up for both Thursday and Friday.
Will continue to advertise dry weather through at least Thursday
given the subsidence/capping working against whatever CAPE may
manage to build up to. Slight chance/chance PoPs for Friday as per
NBM. Still too early to have any confidence in any over-the-ridge
convection spilling over into the forecast area for any of the days
in the long term.

Based on global deterministic and ensemble guidance, best guess for
850mb temps for Monday are 16-17C, approaching 20C on Tuesday, then
20-21C Wednesday through Friday. After high temperatures of mostly
85-90 on Monday, highs mostly in the middle and upper 90s are
expected away from the coast Tuesday through Friday. Although it`s
too soon to have high confidence in detailed heat indices during
this period, at least advisory criteria would likely be met for a
good portion of the forecast area starting on Tuesday given the
current forecast. So far, models aren`t indicating a very dry
boundary layer each afternoon or west to NW surface winds, so these
two factors would limit daytime mixing out of surface dewpoints.

Given the potential duration of the heat, it`ll be important to take
precautions to protect one`s health, particularly those without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive
industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent
of this heat as well.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A pre frontal trough was moving into the lower Hudson Valley
and into northeastern New Jersey at 17Z with showers and an
isolated thunderstorm possible. A cold front will follow late
this afternoon through late tonight.

VFR expected outside of any showers and thunderstorms when MVFR
conditions are expected, with brief IFR possible in stronger
thunderstorms. Timing of the thunderstorms continues to trend
slightly later, with thunderstorms in the NYC metro area 21Z to
01Z, and to the east 23Z to 03Z. Stronger storms, with gusty
winds and small hail possible, will be more likely across the
lower Hudson Valley into northeastern New Jersey, and the NYC
terminals. A few showers will remain possible in the vicinity
of, and post frontal into late tonight.

S to SW winds ahead of the cold front may briefly become light
and variable in the vicinity of the pre frontal trough. Post
cold front winds shift to NW to N and become gusty. Overnight
gusts may be more occasional.


  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Showers were moving across the terminals, with an isolated
thunderstorm possible, through 20Z.

More organized thunderstorms will become likely late afternoon
into this evening 22Z to 01Z. Timing has trended slightly
later, and that trend may continue. A stronger storm remains
possible with gusts up to 40kt and small hail possible.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
A southerly flow will occasionally gust up to 25kt this afternoon on
the ocean waters, otherwise, sub-advisory conditions outside of any
thunderstorms, which may be strong to severe.

For the weekend through Monday, sub-advisory conditions prevail.
There may be a chance of a few S-SW gusts to 25kt and seas
approaching 5 ft each afternoon/early evening for Mon-Wed on the
ocean west of Fire Island inlet. SCAs probably won`t be needed for
each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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The heaviest rains have moved into portions of southwestern
Connecticut and into Nassau county. A few flood advisories
remain across Rockland county, Southern Westchester county,
and into Southern Fairfield county where up to 2 to 2 1/2 inches
of rain has fallen. With the storms weakening farther to the
east the heavy rainfall threat will be diminishing.

Average storm total rainfall amounts will be between half an
inch and 1.50 inches, with pockets of 2-plus inches possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk for rip current development along Atlantic
facing beaches today with southerly flow 15 to 20 kt along the
shoreline and surf up to 4 ft expected.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk
forecast as winds shift offshore.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...