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866
FXUS66 KOTX 242158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warming, dry trend expected through Tuesday. A cold front arrives
Wednesday with wind and storms that lasts into Thursday. Then the
cycle repeats. More mild and drier weather is likely for Friday
followed by heat Saturday and then more wind and storms for
Sunday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Tonight and Tuesday: A ridge pattern over the region will bring a
mild, dry period. There is no threat to precip. The overnight lows
will be in the upper 40s to 50s. Tuesday highs will be a few degrees
higher than Mondays reaching into the 80s and low 90s.

Wednesday and Thursday: An incoming low will bring a big shift to
the pattern to the region. Ensembles are good agreement on the
timing. They do differ on the strength and moisture associated with
with the low. The GFS is bringing a quick moving plume of moisture
starting late Wednesday morning. The EC is not carrying the plume.
The instability parameters are also stronger with the GFS. The
forecast leans more to GFS. It has introduced thunder potential for
most of eastern Washington particularly along the the Cascades on
Wednesday morning. The probability of thunder is at least 12%. By
the evening, the threat of showers and thunder over the Basin has
diminished. It still exists over the Cascades, northern
mountains, and North Idaho Panhandle. Showers and potential
thunder remain in these areas through Thursday as the Low
continues to slide through region. The main concern with the
storms will be lightning. High temperatures will take a decent dip
between the two days. Highs will be in the 80s and low 90s for
Wednesday and drop into the 70s for Thursday. Overnight lows will
continue to be in the 40s and low 50s.

Friday and the weekend: A ridge is expected to fill in behind the
low and bring a return of warm, dry weather through Saturday. Highs
will climb back up to the 80s and low 90s. The next system on Sunday
will not be as strong as the midweek system. Any shower activity
will generally be in the northern mountains. Highs will drop
slightly to upper 70s and 80s. /JDC
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&&

.AVIATION...
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00z TAFS: VFR conditions expected for the TAF sites for the next
24 hours. Little to no clouds is expected. Winds will be light
and terrain driven. Some funnel through the Cascade gaps could
bring brief increases but not expected to be more than 15 kts.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. /JDC
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Spokane        51  86  57  86  56  71 /   0   0   0  20  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  50  83  56  81  55  68 /   0   0   0  20  20  40
Pullman        49  85  56  83  53  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston       57  94  64  92  63  79 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Colville       44  84  48  83  46  68 /   0   0   0  40  40  70
Sandpoint      47  81  52  80  52  64 /   0   0   0  20  30  70
Kellogg        53  83  61  83  56  63 /   0   0   0  20  30  50
Moses Lake     52  91  58  88  54  77 /   0   0   0  20   0  10
Wenatchee      57  89  64  86  58  73 /   0   0   0  20   0  10
Omak           54  90  59  86  55  77 /   0   0   0  30  20  30
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&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$