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139
FXUS66 KOTX 181000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur again today across
the region especially over Northeast Washington and North Idaho.
A warming trend is expected through the week, with high
temperatures rebounding into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Today through Wednesday Night...An upper trough lingers over the
region which means more of the same today. There are some subtle
differences though. Precipitable water values and dewpoints have
increased compared to yesterday. Also, a mid level wave dropping
down from the northwest this afternoon will help initiate more
convection. Uncapped CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG will support scattered
thunderstorms over the northern mountains, with northwest storm
track favorable for these storms to come off the mountains into
the Upper Columbia Basin, and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene areas and
the Idaho Panhandle. All of the CAM`s models are showing gusty
outflow winds coming out of these storms, with gusts anywhere from
25-40 MPH (highest under any stronger storms that develop). There
will also be sufficient instability today for pop up showers or
thunderstorms around the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and LC
Valley. This activity will wind down during the late evening and
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. On Wednesday the
convection cycle repeats, but this time limited to mainly the
northern mountains and some drying in the atmosphere noses
northward from Oregon into central and southern portions of
Washington and the lower Idaho Panhandle.

Temperatures will remain below normal today, before moderating
close to normal values on Wednesday as the air mass continues to
modify despite the lingering upper trough over the region. More
mid-June sun heating up the lower atmosphere will be the main
reason for the warming. JW

Thursday through Tuesday: The Pacific Northwest will be under the
influence of weak ridging at the start of the period. It will
help jump start the gradual warming and dry trend for the Inland
Northwest. A slow moving Low will also begin to slide into the
region from the Gulf of Alaska. Ensembles are showing the Low
pushing occasional shortwaves across the region. There is not a
lotof moisture associated with these waves. Any indication of
precip is confined to the mountains of the Cascades and northern
portions of the Inland Northwest. Ensembles continue to show
warming temperatures peaking on Saturday. The run to run
comparisons of the highs on Saturday have cooled a few degrees
from previous forecasts. Highs are expected to be in the 80s to
low 90s. By Sunday, a dry cold front will swing through the region
and kick off a cooldown. across the region with highs on Monday
being in the 70s and low 80s. The front will also bring breezy
winds across the region with gusts reaching into the mid 30 MPH
range. Peaking ahead, Saturday has the potential of being the
warmest day for the remainder of June. /JDC
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&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue into the late evening
hours with the potential to impact KPUW/KLWS through 08Z. Models
continue to suggest the development of marginal VFR ceilings to
develop across far northeast Washington and north Idaho between 12
to 20Z on Tuesday with low clouds potentially developing across
the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. A repeat of diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday with a 30% chance
for thunderstorms developing across KGEG-KSFF-KCOE, and around a
20% chance in the vicinity of KPUW and KLWS in the afternoon and
early evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 40-60%
chance and moderate confidence for ceilings between 1000-3000
feet at Coeur d`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry from 12Z to 19Z.
There is a 20% chance that marginal VFR ceilings develop at the
Pullman/Moscow Airport early Tuesday morning. /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Spokane        66  44  75  49  82  51 /  40  30   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  43  72  47  80  49 /  60  40   0   0   0   0
Pullman        64  42  74  45  81  50 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       73  48  84  53  89  57 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       65  38  73  41  81  44 /  70  40  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      58  41  70  44  78  47 /  80  50  20   0   0  10
Kellogg        58  44  71  49  78  53 /  70  30  10   0   0  10
Moses Lake     75  46  82  54  88  56 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  52  81  56  86  60 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           72  46  79  51  86  53 /  30  30  10   0   0   0
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&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$