Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
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Issued by NWS Portland, OR
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --783 FXUS66 KPQR 250041 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 541 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --FOR TESTING PURPOSES-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --&&-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --SYNOPSIS-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --A transient shortwave ridge will bring dry and warm conditions to the area Monday and Tuesday, warmest on Tuesday-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --An upper level trough will then bring relatively cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday with increasing chances for rain showers-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Warm and dry conditions will return Friday and Saturday with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --&&-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --SHORT TERM-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --A transient shortwave ridge will bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions the rest of Monday and Tuesday-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Temperatures today will peak in the upper 70s for the Willamette Valley, mid 60s at the coast-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Tuesday is projected to be even warmer-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --For the Willamette Valley, NBM guidance shows a 60-80% chance of highs over 85 deg, and 20-40% chance of highs over 90 deg-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --The coast should remain cooler, closer to the upper 60s-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Cloud cover will be fairly minimal during these two days-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Tuesday night, the ridge begins to move eastward, accompanied by a shift to westerly onshore flow, and the following upper level trough begins to impact us-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --A few light showers may be possible Tuesday night and Wed morning, but the weak warm front passes through Wed afternoon, bringing a 10-20% chance of rain (mostly north of Salem)-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Accumulations look little to none-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --This will be followed by a cold front Wednesday night, with better chances for rain-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --PoPs at 40-70% for northern regions, decreasing south of Salem-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Rain continues until Thursday evening, and chance of 0-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --25" of accumulation is below 10% everywhere but the WA Cascades-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --The northern Willamette Valley and northern coast can expect somewhere around 0-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --10-0-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --15" of rain, and areas south of Salem should see little accumulation at all except in the Cascades-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --LONG TERM-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Friday shows the trough moving through, and we return to more of a ridge pattern-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --While uncertainty still exists as to when the ridge moves out of the area, Friday at least shows no real chance for rainfall, with a 60% chance of temperatures in the Willamette Valley above 80-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Saturday sees much more uncertainty; WPC Cluster analysis shows 60% chance of weak ridging continuing, but there is the potential for a very weak and transitory shortwave trough-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --If this occurs, expect very weak showers and possibly cooler temperatures back into the low/mid 70s-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Sunday sees better ensemble agreement (70-80%) on stronger ridging beginning to develop, continuing into early next week-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --/JLiu && AVIATION-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --High pressure remains over the region, with dry mild southwest flow aloft-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --This will maintain VFR under mostly clear skies through Tuesday at all inland sites although CAM guidance does suggest a 20-40% chance for MVFR low clouds to back build off the Cascades towards the I-5 corridor between roughly 12-16z-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --The coast likely sees MVFR to IFR low clouds building in overnight into Tuesday morning before slowly reverting to VFR by Tuesday afternoon-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --PDX AND APPROACHES-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --High pressure with mild dry southwest flow aloft will maintain VFR under clear skies-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Will need to watch for SCT-BKN 1-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --5kft cloud deck back building off the Cascades 12-16z, otherwise, high confidence in VFR-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---Schuldt &&-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --MARINE-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --High pressure will remain over the offshore waters tonight and Tuesday-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Meanwhile, thermal low pressure stays over northwest Calif into far sw Oregon-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --This will keep the northerly pressure gradient tight enough to support north winds gusting 20 to 25 kt into this evening far the waters south of Newport-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Seas still running at 6 to 8 ft, but will fall back to 5 to 6 ft later tonight into Tue-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Otherwise, not much change in the pattern for early this week, as high pressure remains anchored off the Pac NW-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Low pressure will arrive mid-week, with a weakening front arriving-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --This will bring return of unsettled weather, with return of west to southwest winds, but still mostly 15 kt or less-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --/Higockey &&-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --OR-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --None-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --WA-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --None-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --PZ-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion ---- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ252-253- 272-273-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ www-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --weather-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --facebook-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --com/NWSPortland www-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --twitter-- Changed Discussion --.-- End Changed Discussion --com/NWSPortland