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617
FXUS61 KRNK 090646
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front tracks across the area today with scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains. Dry weather
returns Monday. Next opportunity for showers looks like it will
hold off until the end of next week. The week as a whole is
expected to be dry.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Moderate confidence in scattered showers/storms mainly across
the west and south today as a front moves through.

2. Cooler and drier follows beginning tonight.

A large upper level low centered over southeastern Canada will
continue to shift east south-east today, gradually pushing the
southern edge of the parent trough towards the Mid Atlantic
region. This will in turn push a cold front through by tonight.

Satellite imagery this morning showed multiple MCSs in progress
along the more active part of the front in the central/southern
Plains and the Midwest. Over northern PA and NY State, more
stratiform rainfall was occurring. CAMs show precipitation
trying to fill in between these 2 areas as it nears the southern
and central Appalachians later this morning.

Mid level clouds already covered WV and were pushing into into
western VA and NC. Increasing Petterssen frontogenesis along
with the impinging short wave energy will trigger scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms today, mainly west of I-77
and later sinking towards the NC High Country and NC Piedmont.

Severe weather threat looks low with a cap around 7kft and
plenty of cloud cover. QPF amounts will average 0.10-0.25 where
it does rain, so not expecting flooding problems even if it does
briefly rain hard. Although PWATs are around an inch, there is
plenty of dry air to overcome in the lower levels. A gusty WNW
LLJ will also develop today, with 30-35 kt winds just off the
surface. Increased gusts slightly today as a portion of this
should mix down with the rain, especially at the higher
elevations. Winds decrease around 9-10 pm.

Tonight, much drier air arrives from the north, with dew points
dropping into the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows drop into the low
to mid 50s for the mountains as upslope clouds diminish in the
wake of the dry air. Expect mid to upper 50s for the Piedmont
with any lingering cloudiness shifting south.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
2. Warming trend starts Wednesday.
3. Mainly dry through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push a cold front across the area
Monday afternoon. Not much moisture for this front to work
with, therefore will only see an increase in clouds through the
day. The trough is expected to pivot over the region Monday
night into Tuesday and may bring some light showers across the
western slopes of southeast West Virginia Monday evening. While
this trough is in the vicinity, Monday`s and Tuesday`s
temperatures will run slightly cooler than normal.

High pressure builds over the region with heights increasing
aloft Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to
lower 80s across the mountains and mid to upper 80s in the
foothills and piedmont.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 240 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Warmer than normal temperatures through the period.
2. Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

High pressure will keep the area dry on Thursday an possibly
Friday. Models are bring a cold front into the region Friday
evening, but with not much rainfall. Once the front tracks to
the east, high pressure is expected to wedge south across the
area. Having a hard time believing this scenario as warm season
fronts/CAD events typically do not move through the area without
convection and/or removing a very warm airmass (mid 80s to
lower 90s). For this package, will keep warmer than normal
temperatures with typical diurnal convection Friday into Sunday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Ceilings will lower from west to east in the mountains by late
morning, with MVFR at KLWB and KBLF around 14-15Z with a low
chance for SHRA/TSRA for just a few hours. Elsewhere, expect
overcast VFR with negligible rain chances.

A passing front will will veer west winds to more NW by this
afternoon. Wind speeds generally less than 10 kts early this
morning before becoming gusty mid morning. A LLJ of 30-35 kts at
5kft AGL will translate to surface wind gusts in the 20-30 kt
range.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR for most of the period.

Mainly dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday.

The probability of precipitation increases again for Thursday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH