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070
FXUS61 KRNK 111746
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
146 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather through the work week,
bringing dry weather to the region. Temperatures trend warmer
with upper 80s and 90s possible for highs beginning Thursday.
The next chance of rain may occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Dry weather continues into Wednesday.

Upper trough begins to shift offshore this afternoon, but
northwest flow will persist behind the trough through tomorrow.
This will keep drier and cooler air filtering into the region.

Upslope stratocumulus has continued most of the day, but will
gradually erode through the overnight hours. Light breeze this
afternoon will go calm overnight and partly clear skies with
high pressure settling overhead will promote lows in the 50s
with some upper 40s across the mountains.

Slightly warmer tomorrow, and still dry with high pressure in
control. Northwest flow transitions to a slightly more westerly
flow with heights slowly building. Upper 70s in the mountains
and low/mid 80s in the lower elevations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Warming trend and mainly dry.

Forecast models trend toward a dry solution with heights/low level
temps increasing through Friday. A backdoor front tracking toward
the central Appalachians later Friday could bring a few
showers/storms toward our I-64 corridor, but trends are drier.

Friday could be the hottest day with compressional warming ahead of
the front, but if any convection upstream maintains itself, cloud
cover from it could keep temps a few degrees cooler, especially
north of US 460 while thinking is sunshine will be more plentiful
south.

Forecast confidence is above average on temps/sky/winds and average
on pops.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Summer Pattern Setting Up.

2) Fairly Dry But Afternoon/Evening Chances By Early Next Week For
Storms.

5h pattern this weekend shows a building ridge from the lower MS
Valley into the southeast and mid-Atlantic. Models seem in agreement
on this, but differ on extent of heat that occurs. At the surface
high pressure builds across the northeast and mid-Atlantic Sunday
and with a northeast to east flow will alleviate the heat somewhat.
Temperatures should run close to or just above normal this weekend.

Once the high shifts offshore early next week, models advertise
increasing moisture with a front tracking north of us Monday. There
are some model differences on 5h and 8h heights/temps, but starting
to look like early next week will be more humid with temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Storm chances start increasing as well but will keep it capped
at 30-40 percent mainly across the mountains, with less chance
east.

Forecast confidence is high on temperatures increasing next week but
moderate on chance of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mostly VFR scattered cloud cover continues this afternoon.
Should see clouds gradually erode through the evening. Light
WNW winds will decrease to calm overnight. Winds tomorrow will
be light and variable with high pressure overhead.

Tonight MVFR or lower patchy fog is possible in the river and
mountain valleys, especially at LWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through the upcoming week. Mainly dry conditions
expected through Sunday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...BMG