-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
840
FXUS63 KSGF 012328
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity return Tuesday through Thursday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday through Friday with
  severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A persistent MCS is moving across central Missouri this
afternoon, despite CAMS indicating it should be dissipating.
This was bringing rain, cloud cover and cooler temperatures to
the areas around Lake of the Ozarks and central Missouri with
some spots only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

South of the cloud cover however temperatures were in the upper
70s to lower 90s in full sun. Synoptic models support the
weakening and dissipation of the MCS this afternoon as the
upper level trough over the region gets pushed/flattened to the
east as an upper level storm system moves across southern
Canada.

The upper trough and attendant surface low will move east
towards the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold
front extending south from the low into the plains will push
towards the Ozarks into the day Tuesday. In advance of the
front, the surface pressure gradient will tighten quickly and
allow for a rapid influx of warm and moist air from the Gulf
region through tonight and Tuesday. Despite windy conditions,
temperature will climb into the 90s during the day tomorrow with
heat index values in the 100 to 110 range (warmest in the
western Ozarks). As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issue
from 11am to 8 pm Tuesday. This may need to be expanded
depending on how warm temperatures get.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The cold front will begin to make its way south late Tuesday
evening into Tuesday night which will bring the potential for
some isolated strong to severe storms thanks to the warm and
moist air that will be in place across the Ozarks Tuesday. The
are differences in synoptic, short range and CAMS as to how far
south storms will make it before losing support and weakening by
Wednesday morning. This is likely due to the front slowing and
stalling somewhere across central Missouri to the Arkansas
state line.

This stalled front will become the main focus for additional
storms Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. south of
the front, strong warm air and moisture advection will continue
and bring the potential for additional heat headlines Wednesday,
mainly for southern Missouri and provide the fuel for storm
development Wednesday evening. With ample CAPE the focus of the
front, storms may again be strong to severe.

The 4th of July looks complicated with some synoptic models
again developing late afternoon into evening storms as another
surface low in the plains (and associated front) is pushed into
the Ozarks by an upper level low moving across the northern
plains. Ensembles and some synoptic models lean towards a
wetter solution, though some models hold storms off until late
in the evening (possibly after festivities are over) though
confidence in a dry solution is rather low. This activity, again
may be strong to severe and will need to be watched closely.

The front will have made its way south of the Ozarks by Friday
morning with a cooler airmass filtering into the region through
the day. This will bring relief from the heat and last through
Saturday as the upper level flow pattern becomes more
northwesterly and surface high pressure moves over the region.

Heading into Sunday and early next week, the upper pattern
remains and several short waves move through the pattern which
should keep temperatures near to slightly below seasonable.
Additional rain may occur early next week thanks to the
shortwaves moving through the upper level pattern and weak
surface low development.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period
with some passing high clouds. Southeast winds will continue
with gusts around 20kts at times. Low level wind shear is
possible overnight but too low to include at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Nelson