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524
FXUS65 KSLC 302144
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
344 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and dry southwest flow through the day with
critical fire weather conditions across the western half of the
state while moisture holds on across eastern Utah with isolated
storms. A cold front tomorrow brings isolated showers to northern
Utah with cooler temperatures while central and southern Utah stay
dry and windy.
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.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...
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Dry and hot conditions
are observed across the western half of Utah. RH in the single
digits in Utah motivated an inclusion of northern Utah from the
Wasatch Front to points west into the Red Flag Warning for today.
Winds have been strong enough to create isolated pockets of
blowing dust. Moisture across eastern Utah has resulted in a
cumulus field with little vertical development or storms, but this
has kept temperatures cooler with higher RH and a lower fire
weather risk.

A cold front is moving into northern Utah this evening. Much
cooler temperatures behind the front are noted across southern
Idaho with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. This front
will continue to slowly push into northern Utah overnight. A few
showers are possible along the front tomorrow morning and early
afternoon, but dwindling moisture will prevent anything from going
much further south than the GSL. Southerly winds and temperatures
stay elevated, along with low RH, tomorrow across central and
southern Utah ahead of the front. Red flag warnings remain in
effect for west central and southwest Utah with south central Utah
red flag warnings going into effect during the day tomorrow and
lasting through the evening. See fire weather section of the AFD
for more details. The front will help to scour the moisture out of
eastern Utah tomorrow, but an isolated storm can`t be ruled out
across the far eastern periphery of the CWA along the moisture
gradient.

By Tuesday, the front will have moved through the entirety of the
CWA. This will leave temperatures near normal across the area with
a very dry air mass and weaker winds resulting in a reduction in
the fire weather risk. A shortwave will move through late
Tuesday/early Wednesday and bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air,
but the very dry airmass will prevent precipitation from
developing.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday), Issued 242 AM MDT... Our mid-
week cooldown across northern and central Utah remains on track
thanks to the passage of cold, dry frontal boundary. Temperatures
are expected to be the coolest Tuesday with a gradual warm up
quickly already beginning Wednesday. Utah will sit in between an
exiting low pressure trough to the east and building high pressure
from the west Wednesday through Friday. As a result, little
overall change in the weather pattern will be noticed.

Over the weekend, forecast trends have been favoring the warmer
temperatures associated with strong high pressure building over the
region over the slightly cooler temperatures associated with a
northwest flow pattern. There does remain question where the area of
high pressure will center itself, thus with questions of how hot
will temperatures get across our region.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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KSLC...VFR conditions expected. Gusty SW winds in the 15
to 25kt range will continue through about 00Z this evening, when
gustiness will drop off. A cold front will cause an abrupt wind
shift to the NW this evening, with the wind shift expected between
04-06Z. Winds will gust up to around 25kts along and behind the cold
front, with gusts subsiding 1 or 2 hours after the passage of the
front. Winds will likely remain NW overnight but there is a low (30%
chance) that winds will become southerly between 10-12Z. A few
showers will be in the vicinity between 12-18Z Monday morning.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated diurnal convection
possible across eastern Utah through 06Z this evening. Otherwise,
anticipate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and VFR
conditions. A cold front will move across northern Utah and SW
Wyoming this evening, causing an abrupt wind shift to the N-NW
with gusty winds lingering 1-3 hours after the cold frontal
passage. The front will move through central Utah after midnight.
A few showers will be in the vicinity of northern Utah in the
morning, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms expected
along/near the Idaho border Monday afternoon and early evening.
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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An approaching trough will keep a dry southwesterly
flow across the area with higher moisture across eastern Utah
that has been advected in from high pressure centered over Texas.
This trough will bring a cold front through northern Utah on
Monday which will decrease the temperatures and winds resulting in
increased RH and reduction in the fire weather risk.
Southwesterly winds stay elevated across west central and southern
Utah on Monday maintaining critical fire weather conditions. The
front moves through late Monday and early Tuesday bringing a
reduction in the fire weather risk by Tuesday as winds lessening
and transitioning to a northerly component, but RH stays low.

A second frontal passage on Wednesday will elevate northwesterly
winds across eastern Utah and pair with low RH resulting in an
increased fire weather risk that could linger through Thursday.
Temperatures increase into the weekend as high pressure starts to
build back into the Great Basin.
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.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ478.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ492-495>497.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ498.

WY...None.
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$$

SHORT TERM...Mahan
LONG TERM...N. DeSmet
AVIATION...A. DeSmet
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity