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136
FXUS63 KTOP 271928
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
228 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Scattered storms, some strong to severe are possible late this evening
  into the overnight period. Damaging wind gusts are the main
  hazard.

- The heat returns briefly on Friday afternoon with maximum heat indices
  between 103 to 106 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued.

- Severe storms are possible late Friday afternoon into the
  evening and overnight periods.

- Sporadic shower and storm chances persist in the late evening
  and overnight periods this weekend into most of next week. Not
  all areas will see rain, while some areas may see at least an
  inch of rainfall or more.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Weak embedded troughing throughout the eastern half of the central
plains has resulted in lingering light showers and isolated
thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon. A secondary
stronger shortwave trough is observed traversing the CO rockies,
progged to bring another round of showers and storms this
evening to eastern Kansas. Latest CAM guidance remains somewhat
inconsistent on the timing and track of convection overnight as
the better low level moisture and theta-e advection remains over
western Kansas. The southerly LLJ should aid thunderstorms in
surging eastward, entering north central KS where up to 2000
J/KG is expected. Effective shear is on the weak side at 30 kts
or less so would expect these clusters to carry a threat for
damaging wind gusts. As they trek into northeast Kansas towards
12Z Friday, MUCAPE values drop below 1000 J/KG so would
anticipate a weakening trend with convection into the mid-
morning Friday before exiting into Missouri. Clouds and/or rain
showers may linger just long enough into the daytime Friday to
inhibit heat indices from reaching advisory criteria,
especially far eastern Kansas from Topeka to Lawrence and
Garnett. Went ahead with a Heat Advisory for much of the area to
the west where gusty southerly winds should aid sfc dewpoints
to rise into the middle 70s, resulting in heat indices from 103
to 108 in the afternoon. Will continue to monitor convective
trends overnight to see if the advisory needs to be expanded.

On Friday afternoon, a frontal boundary sags southward through the
CWA, creating a focus for isolated convection to form in the late
afternoon. Strong convergence along the boundary is not apparent on
latest guidance,despite the RAP and Namnest eroding the capping
layer after 23Z. Given the ample instability (Over 4000 J/KG of sfc
MUCAPE) and 40 kts of bulk shear present, any storm that does
form will be capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. If storms do not form along the boundary in the
early evening, another MCS coming out of NE overnight could
reach portions of the CWA, bringing another damaging wind risk
through Saturday morning.

Things begin to quiet down for the weekend as upper ridging attempts
to spread over the central plains. Depending on where the boundary
hangs up Saturday evening, additional storms are expected generally
south of Interstate 70 through the overnight period. Damaging winds
and hail would be the main hazards with this event. It`s worth
northing that the 12Z guidance has trended further south with
highest QPF values in southern Kansas.

Upper ridge exits the region Sunday evening as broad westerly flow
introduces several weak waves capable of producing overnight storm
complexes beginning Monday morning and each subsequent early morning
through the July 4th holiday. Confidence in pops and severe weather
probs are overall low for this period. Temperatures are mostly near
normal in the low 90s for highs with the exception of Tuesday
afternoon where heat indices once again surge to around 105.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR at terminals as high and mid clouds continue to stream
southward through the afternoon. Southeast winds above 10 kts
subside briefly before scattered TSRA increases in coverage aft
05Z as southerly winds increase. Activity spreads east
overnight, impacting all terminals through sunrise. Some minor
differences in timing of storms, but overall consistent in
formation and track thru 15Z. Sfc winds veer to the south,
becoming gusty as the low level jet mixes down Friday morning,
tempering concerns for LLWS at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto