Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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148 FXUS65 KABQ 240524 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1124 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening will gradually dissipate after sunset. A few showers or thunderstorms could linger overnight in the northeast plains, Santa Fe area and possibly for the east mountain area of Albuquerque. This work week will start out with more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for the northwest half of the state Monday. Dry air above mountain top level is forecast to give the Ruidoso area a break from heavy rainfall on Monday. Unfortunately, the break will be short lived as thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and continue each afternoon through this week. In fact, daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast areawide through the week with locally heavy rainfall likely on Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Bermuda high center over NM this afternoon will shift slightly southeastward overnight. As it does so, it`s forecast to entrain single digit RH air at 500 mb from West TX, shutting down the potential for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon for the southeast half to third of the state including the Ruidoso area. It`s unfortunately a quick break between convection with mid level moisture wrapping back around the high and back into southeast NM and the Ruidoso area Tuesday. While this is technically not the monsoon high, this set up acts a lot like it. Over the northwest half or so of the state, mainly scattered thunderstorm activity is forecast Monday afternoon. Storm motion on Monday afternoon will be to the east between 10-15 mph. Monday`s set up will take afternoon thunderstorms off the peaks of the Sangre de Cristos and over the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon (HPCC) burn scar during the early afternoon. Latest high resolution models are not as bullish with the heavy rain potential for the Grants/Milan area Monday afternoon. 18Z NAM12, however, continues to suggest storms will drift to the southeast off Mt. Taylor during the late afternoon. This could result in additional heavy rain for one area still reeling from heavy rain and flash flooding this past Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A very active long term forecast period is expected during the upcoming work week. Starting Tuesday, a kidney bean shaped (NAM12) Bermuda high is forecast to be centered over NM. NAM12 progs a fairly strong centroid within the high center over south- central NM Tuesday afternoon. The storm steering flow that results on Tuesday afternoon is westerly around 10 mph for much of the forecast area. The one exception appears to be over the HPCC burn scare where steering flow is forecast to be light and variable. Storms over the Sangre de Cristo mountains, as a result, are forecast to be mainly stationary Tuesday afternoon, and could result in a greater risk for flash flooding for the mountain range as a whole, but especially for the HPCC burn scar. Then things get even more active Wednesday and Thursday. Bermuda high center is progged to shift to over southeast AZ. As it does so, the flow over NM becomes northwesterly. Northwest flow aloft with moisture in place is notorious for strong to severe storms in northeast NM, including the HPCC burn scar. Additionally, the NAM12 and GFS hit the Sacramento Mountains and the Ruidoso area particularly hard with heavy rain from slow moving storms on Wednesday afternoon as well. As if all of this isn`t bad enough, another unseasonably deep/cold closed low remains on tap to move into the PACNW Thursday. A portion of the stronger than average subtropical jet stream hits the Bermuda high and gets forced northeastward over AZ and northwest NM Thursday. PWAT values from the NAM12 Wednesday night approach and may exceed all time records for ABQ (1.6"). And with a 50 kt jet level speed max moving in according to the 12Z ECMWF, a round of scattered to numerous strong to potentialy severe thunderstorms are forecast for the northwest third or so of the state Thursday afternoon and evening. Global models agree that convection will finally trend down on Friday. Enough residual moisture may remain over the Gila and Sacramento mountains, however, for weak showers or a possible thunderstorm Friday afternoon. Dry weather is expected elsewhere Friday. For next weekend, the Bermuda high center is progged to shift east over West TX, possibly setting the stage for more strong to severe storms for northeast NM and possibly the east mountain area of ABQ. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Remnant debris cloud cover lingers over much of northern and central NM this hour. Like last night, much of this bkn to ovc skies will remain through the overnight period and well into the morning. An area of light showers is also moving eastward from the Continental Divide into the middle Rio Grande and will likely provide a period of light rain at KAEG and KABQ tonight. Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be Monday afternoon`s thunderstorm activity. Overall coverage is expected to trend lower compared to recent days with isolated to scattered thunderstorms focused over the western and northern mountains. Localized MVFR conditions will accompany any thunderstorm. There are a few PROB30 mentions at the sites that have higher confidence for a more direct impact. Some TEMPO`s were also included for terminals where there is lower confidence for a direct thunderstorm impact, but higher confidence an outflow gust can still reach that terminal. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will again slowly diminish Monday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 With dewpoint temperatures expected to remain well above average for this time of year through this upcoming week and the Bermuda high overhead, a monsoon like pattern will persist for at least another week to 10 days. Flash flooding threat from strong afternoon and evening thunderstorms remains high through the week with Wednesday and Thursday looking like the days with the highest threat level. A brief downtick in activity remains on track for Friday, but more strong to severe storms are forecast to move back in next weekend. High temperatures will trend up above average Tuesday, trending back down to below average Wednesday and Thursday. A warm up Friday will be countered with a cool down for the northeast third Saturday and for much of the forecast area Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 91 64 95 / 10 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 48 89 48 92 / 20 20 0 10 Cuba............................ 57 86 58 89 / 10 30 10 20 Gallup.......................... 54 89 55 92 / 20 50 10 20 El Morro........................ 57 85 58 86 / 30 60 20 40 Grants.......................... 56 89 56 91 / 30 60 20 40 Quemado......................... 58 86 59 87 / 30 70 30 60 Magdalena....................... 64 87 65 89 / 40 60 20 50 Datil........................... 61 84 61 85 / 40 70 20 70 Reserve......................... 54 91 55 93 / 30 70 30 70 Glenwood........................ 66 96 67 98 / 30 70 20 70 Chama........................... 49 83 50 86 / 20 30 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 64 84 65 88 / 10 40 5 30 Pecos........................... 59 86 63 88 / 20 30 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 83 50 86 / 10 30 5 30 Red River....................... 49 77 50 79 / 10 30 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 45 79 46 82 / 10 30 0 20 Taos............................ 55 86 55 91 / 10 20 0 20 Mora............................ 53 85 55 87 / 20 40 0 30 Espanola........................ 61 92 62 96 / 10 30 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 64 87 65 89 / 20 30 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 90 63 93 / 10 30 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 69 95 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 95 70 96 / 10 20 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 97 67 98 / 10 20 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 68 97 / 10 20 10 10 Belen........................... 66 97 67 99 / 20 30 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 68 96 69 98 / 10 20 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 65 96 66 98 / 20 30 10 20 Corrales........................ 68 97 69 98 / 10 20 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 67 96 68 99 / 20 30 10 20 Placitas........................ 67 91 68 93 / 10 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 69 95 70 97 / 10 20 10 10 Socorro......................... 70 98 72 101 / 40 40 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 86 65 89 / 20 30 10 20 Tijeras......................... 62 89 63 92 / 20 30 10 20 Edgewood........................ 59 90 60 92 / 20 20 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 91 59 93 / 20 30 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 59 86 60 88 / 20 30 10 20 Mountainair..................... 61 89 61 92 / 30 30 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 61 89 64 92 / 30 30 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 70 97 / 20 20 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 60 85 63 88 / 10 30 10 50 Capulin......................... 58 88 59 89 / 20 20 0 10 Raton........................... 56 91 59 93 / 10 20 0 10 Springer........................ 58 91 60 94 / 20 30 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 57 86 60 88 / 30 30 5 20 Clayton......................... 67 95 67 97 / 20 20 0 5 Roy............................. 63 91 63 93 / 30 30 0 10 Conchas......................... 68 98 68 99 / 20 20 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 65 94 67 96 / 20 20 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 69 98 71 100 / 20 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 67 96 70 99 / 10 5 0 5 Portales........................ 67 96 71 100 / 5 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 69 96 71 100 / 20 10 5 5 Roswell......................... 71 101 75 105 / 5 5 0 10 Picacho......................... 65 94 68 97 / 10 20 5 40 Elk............................. 60 93 63 95 / 5 20 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...24