Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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301 FXUS65 KABQ 260549 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1149 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Abnormally high moisture remains across NM for today causing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Moisture amounts increase to an extreme level on Wednesday and Thursday, which coupled with a passing trough, will lead to fairly widespread and heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. Flooding and flash flooding is very much of a concern due to the extreme levels of moisture. Following a brief respite on Friday another round of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms may occur this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Convection thus far this afternoon has been isolated, but updrafts that have developed are producing localized heavy rainfall, including over the Cerro Pelado burn scar. There`s a stark PWAT gradient over northern NM, with less than 0.5" along the upper Rio Grande Valley and as much as 1.5" across the southeast plains. The drier air should limit storm coverage over the northern mountains this afternoon and evening so storms will focus over the eastern plains. With the lack of shear close to the center of the high, storms will go up and come down quickly. Severe outflow gusts are possible across the eastern plains where greater than 1000 J/Kg of DCAPE will help bring strong gusts down to the surface. Scattered development along colliding outflow boundaries will likely occur through the night. High pressure sliding to the south tomorrow will bring an influx of moisture in from the west, surging afternoon PWATs to near record levels. The deepest moisture doesn`t arrive from the west until the mid/late-afternoon so this should inhibit convective activity enough to allow maximal atmospheric destabilization. Storms will slowly drift off the high terrain and expand in coverage during the evening as moisture rises to 3 to 5 standard deviations above average. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch was issued for most of the central mountain chain and portions of western and northern NM. These areas have the highest confidence for flash flooding (especially the recent burn scars), but flash flooding is still possible elsewhere with this very moist and unstable airmass. Rounds of storms with heavy rainfall will increase the risk of large debris flows below recent burn scars that will be able to damage roads, bridges, and vulnerable structures. A weakness in the ridge will provide the forcing to help clusters of storms develop during the evening, particularly in the highlands adjacent to the central mountain chain thanks to moist flow from the southeast. Therefore, the flooding risk will persist well into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 NM has a high chance to see continued active weather for the mid week through the weekend and into next week. Thursday will see the high pressure briefly flattened by a trough to the NW of the region. Thursday will still have an extreme level of moisture sitting across the whole state. This will see this moisture peak during the morning hours with PWAT of 1 to 1.5 in which will put in the top 1% or even max of moisture events for this time of year. This extreme moisture will fuel fairly widespread rain showers and thunderstorms that will be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall. Even with the influence of the trough making storms more progressive in eastward motion the added ventilation should allow for stronger storm cores that will produce higher rainfall rates. So even with the progressive storms the potential for very high rain rates in the extremely moist environment will allow for flash flooding. The area most that has the highest chances of seeing these very west storms on Thursday is the western to central portions of NM with decreasing chances to the east. The trend for the storms on Thursday has been an increase in coverage with increasing storm motions. Thursday still has heightened concern for flooding and flash flooding with a Flood Watch still looking inevitable at this time. The silver lining of the moisture will be that all the clouds, rain showers, and thunderstorms will help to keep NM on the cooler side with the valleys in the 80s to 90s. Friday should see a break in the active weather as the flattened high pressure will allow westerly winds to push the moisture out of NM. A little remnant moisture will remain which will allow for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to still form over the mountains. However these should only produce limited rainfall amounts. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s. The highs in the hottest spot could even reach heat advisory levels for Friday afternoon and evening. Then for the weekend the high has a moderately high chance of pushing back to the west setting up a very similar pattern to Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern is already showing signs of pushing in another round of abnormally high moisture across NM. This batch of abnormally high moisture is already flagging to be in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1 to 1.3 inch range. This moisture seems to be from the Gulf of Mexico streaming into NM from the SE. The moisture will allow for another round of rain showers and thunderstorms that could be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall. To further complicate the scenario there is a moderate chance that a cold front will push NE to SW across NM late on Saturday. This front should then stall in the central portions of NM around the Albuquerque area. Prior to it stalling this front may act as a forcing mechanism that can organize and intensify rain showers and thunderstorms. Once it stalls it would still act as a forcing area as moisture overruns it increasing rain intensity and amounts around and along the front. Flooding remains a high concern for this weekend as the moisture and dynamics will allow it to occur. Monday and Tuesday has a moderate chance of keeping the abnormally high moisture across NM leading to continued rain showers and thunderstorms. Flooding remains a concern as the moisture across NM is still abnormally high. Monday may see a weak jet form over the central portions of NM that could further aid in the formation and strength of rain showers and thunderstorms. If the jet forms then the concern for flooding will be increased for Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Sprinkles, mid level cloud cover, and remnant outflow boundaries over the region late tonight will dissipate thru sunrise. A rich tap of moisture will develop into NM Wednesday with significantly greater coverage of SHRA/TS compared to Tuesday. Convection will fire up over higher terrain areas around 11am then move slow and erratically into nearby highlands and valleys thru the evening. Torrential rainfall is likely under the strongest cells along with small hail and wet microburst winds possible. Direct hits will be capable of brief IFR. SHRA/TS will evolve into areas of light to moderate rain Wednesday night with widespread mid level cloud cover thru sunrise Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Above normal moisture persists over NM today and will be increasing to extreme levels on Wednesday and Thursday. For today this is causing the ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms. The overall storm motion is a weak easterly to southeasterly drift allowing for the storms to produce small rain foot prints. However the slow motions will is causing flood concerns as a high amount of rainfall can fall over a single area. With increasing moisture for Wednesday and Thursday the amount and intensity of the rain showers and thunderstorms will increase across all of NM. The storm motion looks to be slow with a eastward drift on Wednesday. Thursday should see a more progressive eastward motion of the storms. Regardless of storm motion, these storms will bring increased threat of flash flooding to all the fire areas and burn scars on Wednesday and Thursday. If flash flooding does occur on a fire area it is possible that dangerous debris flows may occur. A small break in the active weather is still in store for Friday as the moisture moves away. This break comes to an end for the weekend into next week as another round of abnormally high moisture moves back across NM. This can lead to another round of rain showers and thunderstorms that may be capable of producing very high rainfall. The silver lining to all this moisture is that the RH will see great overnight recoveries and remain elevated during the days with the possible exception of Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 94 66 89 / 0 50 60 50 Dulce........................... 54 89 55 84 / 0 50 40 60 Cuba............................ 60 90 59 83 / 0 70 70 70 Gallup.......................... 59 90 58 87 / 20 60 50 40 El Morro........................ 59 84 58 82 / 20 80 70 60 Grants.......................... 59 88 57 86 / 10 80 70 70 Quemado......................... 60 86 60 83 / 40 90 70 70 Magdalena....................... 67 89 65 84 / 10 80 80 80 Datil........................... 61 85 60 82 / 20 90 70 80 Reserve......................... 59 90 57 89 / 40 80 70 50 Glenwood........................ 70 95 68 95 / 30 70 60 40 Chama........................... 53 84 52 77 / 10 60 60 80 Los Alamos...................... 68 86 64 81 / 5 80 70 80 Pecos........................... 61 89 59 83 / 10 70 80 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 85 52 78 / 10 80 60 70 Red River....................... 51 75 50 71 / 10 80 60 70 Angel Fire...................... 46 80 48 76 / 20 70 50 60 Taos............................ 57 91 58 83 / 0 60 50 60 Mora............................ 55 82 55 82 / 5 70 60 70 Espanola........................ 64 95 64 89 / 5 60 60 60 Santa Fe........................ 67 88 63 84 / 10 70 80 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 93 64 87 / 5 60 70 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 94 69 90 / 0 70 80 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 96 69 91 / 0 50 70 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 98 69 93 / 0 50 70 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 98 69 91 / 0 50 70 60 Belen........................... 68 98 67 93 / 5 60 80 60 Bernalillo...................... 70 97 69 92 / 0 50 70 60 Bosque Farms.................... 66 98 65 92 / 0 50 70 60 Corrales........................ 69 97 68 92 / 0 50 70 60 Los Lunas....................... 66 99 65 92 / 0 50 70 60 Placitas........................ 70 94 68 88 / 0 50 70 60 Rio Rancho...................... 71 96 69 91 / 0 50 70 60 Socorro......................... 73 101 71 95 / 10 70 80 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 89 62 83 / 0 60 70 60 Tijeras......................... 68 91 65 85 / 0 60 80 70 Edgewood........................ 65 91 63 86 / 5 60 70 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 60 93 60 88 / 10 60 70 60 Clines Corners.................. 61 88 59 82 / 10 60 70 50 Mountainair..................... 64 91 63 86 / 20 70 80 60 Gran Quivira.................... 63 91 61 86 / 20 80 80 70 Carrizozo....................... 72 93 68 90 / 20 70 70 50 Ruidoso......................... 64 86 61 83 / 20 60 60 60 Capulin......................... 61 87 61 84 / 10 70 40 50 Raton........................... 60 91 60 88 / 0 70 30 50 Springer........................ 61 93 63 89 / 5 70 40 50 Las Vegas....................... 60 85 59 83 / 10 70 70 60 Clayton......................... 67 95 66 92 / 10 50 40 20 Roy............................. 65 91 65 87 / 10 60 60 40 Conchas......................... 70 99 70 95 / 20 40 60 30 Santa Rosa...................... 68 95 67 91 / 20 40 60 30 Tucumcari....................... 69 100 68 96 / 30 20 60 5 Clovis.......................... 70 99 70 96 / 30 20 40 5 Portales........................ 72 99 71 97 / 30 10 40 5 Fort Sumner..................... 72 100 71 95 / 30 30 60 20 Roswell......................... 76 104 74 101 / 30 30 30 20 Picacho......................... 69 94 67 92 / 20 60 50 50 Elk............................. 66 90 63 91 / 20 70 50 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT Wednesday through late Wednesday night for NMZ204-207-211-214-215-217-222-223-226-229-233-239. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...42