771
FXUS65 KABQ 291803 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1203 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Quick update to expand the Flood Watch across the remainder of
northeast NM for this afternoon and tonight. Latest CAMs show
potential for greater than 3" of rainfall in some areas,
especially Union and Harding counties late tonight. New FFA
already out.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Widespread showers and storms are expected today and tonight,
creating an elevated risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars
and in the central and northeast highlands. The active weather will
continue into early next week with scattered to widespread showers
and storms favoring the western and northern high terrain each
afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances trend down mid and
especially late week, but burn scar flash flooding will continue to
remain a possibility. Temperatures the next several days will likely
be near seasonal averages in the central and eastern portions of the
state and 5 to 10 degrees below average in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Moist backdoor cold front in southeast CO is just now approaching
Trinidad early this morning on its way south into eastern NM today.
At the same time an elongated Bermuda high extending as far west as
eastern NM is tapping subtropical moisture over Sonora and Chihuahua
Mexico. These two features are forecast to combine with one another
to result in another active to very active afternoon and evening
featuring scattered to numerous thunderstorms with the potential
for torrential rainfall to portions of central and northeast NM
today. Latest global models along with the HREF suggestive of a
several heavy rain bullseyes (ranging from 1.5"-3.25") near and just
east of the central mountain chain. The main precipitation bullseye
that the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members have
latched on to are in eastern Mora county along and east of I-25,
southeast Colfax county east of Maxwell, and for portions of western
San Miguel county over and near Las Vegas. Additionally, heavy
rainfall potential is possible in the East Mountain area of ABQ
including Edgewood along with much of western and central Torrance
county where heavy rain is also possible late this afternoon through
mid evening. These areas have been added to the Flood Watch for
Flash Flooding this afternoon and evening. Models indicating that
with PWAT values near 1.6" in northeast NM and cells training over
the same location, that heavy rain is the primary threat today.
Effective bulk shear will be plenty sufficient for several hours of
strong to severe thunderstorm potential in northeast NM during the
late afternoon before convection there turns to all an excessive
rain threat toward sunset through early morning Sunday.

Dry air aloft over West Texas moves into much of NM Sunday, shifting
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity to the south
central mountains including Ruidoso and far western areas west of
the Divide. Storm motion is forecast to be to the north around 15
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Drier air will continue to infiltrate from the south Sunday night,
stabilizing the atmosphere and keeping precipitation coverage across
the eastern two-thirds of the state to a minimum. However, showers
and storms near the AZ border will likely continue through the night
as a subtle feature moves northward across the area. High pressure
over the southern Plains is expected to slide eastward on Monday,
tilting the moisture axis back across New Mexico. However, the
moisture gradient will be relatively tight with PWATs ranging from
around 120% of normal over central NM to as high as 250% of normal
across the far northwest. In addition, the base of a trough will
swing through the Intermountain West Monday, providing the lift and
shear needed for a few stronger storms in the Four Corners region
where the heaviest rainfall will focus. The trough is expected to
scour out some of the moisture, but leave enough behind for
scattered to widespread showers and storms both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

A pattern change is expected on Thursday as the Bermuda High
retreats back over the southeastern US and an amplified ridge
develops over the eastern Pacific off the US west coast. This along
with a mean 500mb trough over the northern Rockies will dry out The
Great Basin region and some of that dry air is expected to make its
way into northern NM. This will keep most convective activity to the
south on Thursday and Friday, but storms are still possible in the
Sacramento mountains if the dry air doesn`t intrude quite far enough
south. After Thursday, confidence in the forecast is low. Cluster
analysis shows a couple different potential synoptic patterns. The
first solution hints at a monsoon ridge building over the
Intermountain West, allowing some sub-tropical moisture to sneak
back up into the state, whereas the second shows the amplified ridge
sticking around off the west coast of the US. The second pattern
would likely be drier for the western half of the state, but wetter
for the eastern half since it would increase the likelihood of a
backdoor cold front intrusion from the east (as suggested by both
the deterministic GFS and EC).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A backdoor cold front has pushed through northeast NM this morning
and is currently positioned just south of a KCQC to KTCC line.
Moist upslope flow behind this front will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and east of the Central Mt Chain
this afternoon. Severe storms are possible, with large hail
possible initially, but impacts will transition to damaging winds
and heavy rainfall which may result vsby. Areas along and east of
the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mts to the OK and TX borders have
the best chances at severe weather this afternoon and evening with
heavy rainfall potentially lasting through 12Z. Outflow may push
an east wind through the gaps of the Central Mt Chain at KSAF and
KABQ tonight, but latest model guidance suggest that outflow from
storms elsewhere may interfere with a strong gap wind. Thus, it
may be more moderate in nature or winds may be from the N or NW.
Additional storms will develop this afternoon across both western
and north central NM as well with brief cig and/or vsby reductions
possible. Storms across western NM will diminish around sunset.
Low cigs are likely across NE NM overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A climate pattern that mimics the monsoon will continue to bring a
heavy rain threat to much of central and eastern NM today. This
active pattern is forecast to shift to northwest NM Sunday. Moisture
moves back along a swath from the upper Gila northeastward to the
northern Sangre de Cristo mountains on Monday afternoon. The swath
of thunderstorm activity is forecast to sag southward slightly
Tuesday for another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
with locally very heavy rain. A trend toward drier weather is
anticipated Thursday and Friday. The active pattern, however, is
forecast to return again next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  67  91  66 /  20  20  70  40
Dulce...........................  89  52  86  54 /  20  40  80  50
Cuba............................  88  60  86  60 /  40  50  60  50
Gallup..........................  89  58  90  59 /  30  30  60  40
El Morro........................  84  60  86  59 /  70  40  60  50
Grants..........................  89  58  88  59 /  50  50  60  50
Quemado.........................  86  60  88  60 /  60  30  60  50
Magdalena.......................  91  65  88  65 /  40  40  30  30
Datil...........................  86  60  86  61 /  70  30  40  40
Reserve.........................  91  57  92  59 /  60  30  40  60
Glenwood........................  98  67  96  68 /  60  30  40  50
Chama...........................  83  51  79  52 /  30  50  80  60
Los Alamos......................  87  63  83  64 /  40  60  70  40
Pecos...........................  86  60  82  61 /  50  60  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  83  49  80  52 /  60  70  80  40
Red River.......................  74  50  74  51 /  80  70  80  30
Angel Fire......................  76  48  75  50 /  70  70  60  20
Taos............................  87  57  84  57 /  40  70  60  30
Mora............................  81  54  80  55 /  70  60  60  20
Espanola........................  95  63  91  65 /  30  60  50  30
Santa Fe........................  88  63  84  64 /  30  60  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  91  63  88  64 /  30  60  50  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  69  92  70 /  30  50  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  72  94  70 /  20  40  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  69  96  70 /  20  40  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  70  95  71 /  20  50  30  30
Belen...........................  99  67  96  69 /  20  40  20  30
Bernalillo......................  97  69  95  70 /  20  50  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  98  65  96  68 /  20  40  20  30
Corrales........................  98  69  96  70 /  20  50  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  99  67  96  70 /  20  40  20  30
Placitas........................  93  67  91  69 /  20  50  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  96  68  94  70 /  20  50  30  30
Socorro......................... 101  71  98  72 /  30  40  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  61  85  64 /  50  60  30  30
Tijeras.........................  89  63  88  65 /  40  60  30  30
Edgewood........................  89  60  88  62 /  50  60  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  59  88  61 /  40  60  30  20
Clines Corners..................  84  58  83  60 /  50  70  20  20
Mountainair.....................  90  61  88  62 /  30  50  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  91  61  89  62 /  30  50  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  96  67  91  66 /  30  30  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  87  60  83  60 /  50  20  30  20
Capulin.........................  77  57  81  62 /  70  90  50  10
Raton...........................  82  59  83  59 /  80  70  50  10
Springer........................  87  60  86  62 /  70  80  50  10
Las Vegas.......................  82  58  80  60 /  60  70  40  20
Clayton.........................  82  63  88  68 /  40  70  30   5
Roy.............................  83  62  85  65 /  60  80  30   5
Conchas.........................  93  68  93  70 /  30  60  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  91  66  88  68 /  20  60  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  94  68  94  71 /  20  60  10   0
Clovis..........................  98  70  94  69 /  30  30  10   0
Portales........................  99  71  95  70 /  20  30   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  98  70  94  71 /  20  40   5   0
Roswell......................... 104  74  98  74 /  20  20   5   0
Picacho.........................  96  67  91  66 /  30  30  20  10
Elk.............................  94  61  90  62 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-221>223-226>232.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34