Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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876 FXUS65 KABQ 242129 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 329 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Abnormally high moisture remains across NM for today and Tuesday leading to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Moisture amounts increase to an extreme level on Wednesday and Thursday, which coupled with a passing trough, will lead to fairly widespread and heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. The shear amount of moisture in play is very much a concern for impactful flooding and flash flooding. Following a brief respite on Friday another round of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms may occur this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Radar is starting to light up with scattered storms focused over the southwest mountains. There`s another area of convection focusing along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, but that has been tame thus far. The 12Z sounding at ABQ showed another high PWAT of 1.13", but an inversion around 500mb and that has so far done a good job at preventing more widespread convection and heavier rainfall rates from developing. A broad area of High pressure is currently centered over southern NM so steering flow is slow from the west to east. Storms will struggle to maintain their strength has they head east toward the Rio Grande Valley, but cannot rule out some late afternoon showers and associated gusty winds. Storms should quickly wind down this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The aformentioned ridge will slowly wobble westward tomorrow as moisture continues to recycle. Some drier air is expected to infiltrate along the north side of the ridge, leading to a downtick in precip. coverage across the north, but similar coverage as today across the west. Hi-res models are showing a few showers developing over the peaks of the Sacramento mtns early tomorrow afternoon again, however confidence in heavy enough rainfall rates to produce flash flooding was not quite high enough to issue a Flash Flood Watch on this shift. The other concern tomorrow will be the heat as heights tick upward and help temps rise a few degrees above today`s highs, particularly across the east where low 100s are expected. Highs will approach 105 in the Roswell area so a Heat Advisory may be needed for tomorrow afternoon there. Moderate heat risk concerns are expected as far west as the Rio Grande Valley as well, but at least some afternoon clouds and showers will offer some late afternoon relief. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 NM has a high chance to see active weather for the mid week through the weekend and into next week. This will take the form of the Four Corners high retreating to the east and combining with the Bermuda Azores high. This seemingly small shift in the pattern will have a large impact across NM as it draw in extreme amounts of moisture. This moisture will be sourced from two different areas that will then combine over portions of NM. The first and largest contributer to the moisture will be from the SW which is the same moisture feed that has been causing the present rain showers and thunderstorms. The second moisture feed will be from the SE which will add a smaller but still impactful amount of moisture to NM. For Wednesday this will see PWAT values of 0.75 in to over 1 in across much of NM which will put it in the top 10% to 2.5% of moisture events for this time of year. Thursday will see this moisture peak during the morning hours with PWAT of 1 to 1.5 in which will put in the top 1% or even max of moisture events for this time of year. This translates to there being an extreme amount of moisture in the atmosphere that can fuel any rain shower or thunderstorm. To further add to the threat a weak short wave will drawn up around the retreating high pressure moving first across western NM then northern NM Wednesday through Thursday morning. This feature will act both as a trigger to start rain showers and thunderstorms and to provide forcing to enhance them. The generally weak western flow aloft will also allow the N/S mountains to provide some upslope forcing that will also help enhance rain showers and thunderstorms. What this boils down to is that there is a lot of moisture and plenty of forcing across NM that will allow for ample rain showers and thunderstorms to form. Currently the western and central portions of NM will have the highest odds of seeing rain showers and thunderstorms while the NW and SE have lesser chances. The trend continues to be to high chances for rain showers and thunderstorms from the increasing confidence in the moisture and forcing. The steering flow is generally expected to be on the weaker side with a general eastward drift which will allow for the rain showers and thunderstorms to persist over a given spot for a long duration. This is especially bad as the rain showers and thunderstorms have a moderate to even high chance of producing copious amounts of rainfall. There will be an exception to the slower storm motions on Thursday for northern NM. This area may come more under the influence of a trough to the NW of the region which will allow the rain showers and thunderstorms to become more progressive in their easterly movement. The downside is if this does occurs then these storms will see better ventilation which will allow them to be stronger and produce higher rainfall rates. So even with these more progressive storms the threat of flooding remains intact. So both Wednesday and Thursday have heightened concern for flooding and flash flooding with a Flood Watch still looking inevitable at this time. The ample amount of moisture, rain shower and thunderstorms, and clouds will have a small silver lining in that they will keep NM on the cooler side. Highs in the 90s to 100s in the valleys on Wednesday will fall to 80s and 90s on Thursday. Friday looks to be a bit of a break in the active weather as the high pressure retreats further eastward. This will allow a westerly flow to push out the ample moisture from Wednesday and Thursday from NM. A little remnant moisture will remain which will allow for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to still form over the mountains. However these should only produce limited rainfall amounts. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s. Then for the weekend into next week the high has a moderate chance of pushing back to the west setting up a very similar pattern to Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern is already showing signs of pushing in another round of abnormally high moisture across NM. This batch of abnormally high moisture is already flagging to be in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1 to 1.3 inch range. This moisture seems to be from the Gulf of Mexico streaming into NM from the SE. The moisture will allow for another round of rain showers and thunderstorms that could be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall. If this event continues to shape up as it seems it might, then NM may be in store for another round of flooding to close out June and welcome July. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Scattered showers and storms will favor the western and northern high terrain from 20Z through around 02Z with showers lingering through the overnight hours. Storms may produce small hail and gusty outflow winds. VFR cigs will prevail through the TAF period, although brief MVFR to IFR cigs are possible with heavier showers and storms, particularly over the western high terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Above normal moisture persists over NM today and will be increasing to extreme levels by mid week. For today and Tuesday this will cause afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms that generally favor western and north central NM. The overall storm motion is a weak easterly drift allowing for the storms to produce small rain foot prints. There is a small threat for localized flash flooding over fire areas and burn scars. Then with increasing moisture for Wednesday and Thursday the amount and intensity of the rain showers and thunderstorms will increase across all of NM. These rain showers and thunderstorms have a high chance of having slow generally eastward drifting storm motions which will allow for long residence times over a given spot. The exception being in N NM where there storms will see more progressive eastward motion but be overall more intense. Regardless of storm motion, these storms will bring increased threat of flash flooding to all the fire areas and burn scars on Wednesday and Thursday. If flash flooding does occur on a fire area it is possible to see life threatening debris flows similar to what was seen at Ruidoso. A small break in the active weather may occur for Friday as the moisture moves away. This break comes to an end for the weekend as another round of abnormally high moisture moves back across NM. This can cause another round of rain showers and thunderstorms that can produce very high rainfall. The silver lining to all this moisture is that the RH will see great overnight recoveries and remain elevated during the days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 96 67 91 / 0 5 0 20 Dulce........................... 51 93 53 88 / 5 10 0 30 Cuba............................ 58 91 60 86 / 10 10 5 50 Gallup.......................... 57 92 60 88 / 20 20 10 50 El Morro........................ 58 86 60 82 / 50 40 20 70 Grants.......................... 57 91 60 87 / 30 30 10 70 Quemado......................... 59 87 61 83 / 30 60 30 80 Magdalena....................... 65 89 67 86 / 30 40 20 70 Datil........................... 60 85 61 82 / 30 60 20 80 Reserve......................... 57 92 58 89 / 30 70 30 80 Glenwood........................ 69 97 69 94 / 30 70 20 80 Chama........................... 51 86 52 82 / 20 20 5 50 Los Alamos...................... 64 89 67 85 / 10 30 5 60 Pecos........................... 59 90 61 85 / 10 30 10 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 87 52 82 / 20 30 10 60 Red River....................... 49 78 49 74 / 20 30 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 45 82 45 77 / 20 30 10 50 Taos............................ 55 92 57 87 / 5 20 5 50 Mora............................ 54 87 55 82 / 10 30 5 60 Espanola........................ 63 97 65 93 / 5 20 5 50 Santa Fe........................ 64 90 66 86 / 10 20 10 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 95 66 90 / 10 20 10 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 96 72 92 / 10 20 10 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 98 72 94 / 10 10 10 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 99 71 96 / 10 10 10 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 98 72 95 / 10 10 10 40 Belen........................... 67 99 69 96 / 20 10 10 50 Bernalillo...................... 69 99 71 95 / 10 10 10 40 Bosque Farms.................... 65 99 67 96 / 20 10 10 40 Corrales........................ 68 99 70 96 / 10 10 10 40 Los Lunas....................... 65 99 67 96 / 20 10 10 40 Placitas........................ 69 95 70 90 / 10 10 10 50 Rio Rancho...................... 70 98 72 95 / 10 10 10 40 Socorro......................... 71 101 73 98 / 30 30 20 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 90 65 85 / 10 10 10 50 Tijeras......................... 65 92 67 88 / 10 10 10 50 Edgewood........................ 62 93 64 89 / 10 20 10 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 94 60 90 / 10 20 10 50 Clines Corners.................. 60 89 61 85 / 10 20 10 50 Mountainair..................... 63 92 63 88 / 20 20 20 50 Gran Quivira.................... 62 92 62 88 / 30 30 20 60 Carrizozo....................... 70 96 71 92 / 20 30 20 50 Ruidoso......................... 62 88 63 84 / 10 50 20 70 Capulin......................... 59 90 60 84 / 20 20 5 50 Raton........................... 59 93 60 88 / 10 20 0 50 Springer........................ 59 96 61 90 / 10 20 5 50 Las Vegas....................... 58 88 59 84 / 10 30 10 60 Clayton......................... 66 98 67 91 / 10 20 10 20 Roy............................. 63 94 65 89 / 20 20 10 40 Conchas......................... 69 100 70 96 / 20 20 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 68 97 68 92 / 20 20 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 70 101 69 96 / 10 20 20 20 Clovis.......................... 70 99 70 96 / 5 20 30 20 Portales........................ 72 100 71 97 / 5 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 71 100 72 97 / 10 20 20 20 Roswell......................... 75 105 76 101 / 5 20 20 20 Picacho......................... 67 96 68 93 / 10 50 20 60 Elk............................. 64 94 65 91 / 10 50 20 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...16