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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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937 FXUS65 KABQ 281152 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 552 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will decrease today. It will also be hotter with many areas in the upper 80s and 90s. Roswell is likely to reach close to 105 today. A backdoor cold front arriving tonight will increase storm chances once again across northern NM on Saturday. Heavy rainfall may lead to more flash flooding, especially around wildfire burn scars. Sunday and Monday will be active as well with more locally heavy rainfall over northern and western NM. The chance for storms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a possible drier pattern by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 An unseasonably deep closed low moving east along the Canadian border today is progged to flatten and elongate the Bermuda, not monsoon, high as it continues to be a pretender over TX this morning. Dry mid and low level air works in from the northwest during the day, mainly shutting down afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances for all but the far western quarter of the state. Models indicating enough residual low level moisture will combine with very dry mid level air to result in strong instability for isolated showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Bermuda high pumps back up over TX starting Friday night, resulting in increased mid and low level moisture advection from the southwest. Meanwhile, a backdoor front is forecast to drop into northeast NM Saturday morning and with near record to record PWATs, sets the stage for a marked increase in thunderstorm activity for all but the northwest third Saturday afternoon. The flash flooding threat for the HPCC, Blue2, South Fork, Salt and McBride burn scars is also expected to increase markedly Saturday afternoon. Storm motion is forecast to be primarily to the north and northeast ranging between 10-15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 By Saturday night, areas of rain and embedded storms will taper off across northern NM. The moist instability axis will be draped from southwest to northeast across the area Sunday morning with a near-record daily PWAT possible again for KABQ. The focus for showers and storms will shift more into northern and western NM Sunday afternoon as H5 pressure heights rise over eastern NM. By Monday, the upper level high will progress even farther west into NM with the heavy rainfall activity mainly west of the Cont Divide. Extended forecast models begin diverging on the overall pattern by Tuesday. A decrease in coverage may occur over northern and western NM on Tuesday with drier air filtering in from the Four Corners region. Another backdoor cold front may enter eastern NM Tuesday night with greater storm coverage possible again for Wednesday. More dry air may enter northern NM Thursday with yet another decrease in storm coverage and hotter temps. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VRF condtions will prevail during the next 24 hours as drier air filters in from the west and northwest today with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring the western quarter of the state. Storm motion will generally be toward the east and southeast around 10-15 kt. Showers and storms will dissipate relatively early this evening. Moisture is forecast to return Saturday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage expected Saturday for all but the northwest third of the state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Today will trend drier with hotter temperatures. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be confined to isolated mainly from the Divide westward. The drying trend will be short lived, however, as mid level moisture returns from the southwest while a backdoor cold front enters northeast NM Saturday morning. This combination results in a very noticeable increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity for an increased potential for burn scar flash flooding Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to shift over west central and northwest NM Sunday and Monday as high pressure aloft builds back westward over eastern NM. The current weather pattern mimicking the monsoon is forecast to continue through the next week. Wednesday looks like the most active thunderstorm day as another backdoor front is forecast to drop in from the northeast to help trigger afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 90 63 94 68 / 10 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 87 47 90 53 / 10 0 5 20 Cuba............................ 85 57 88 59 / 10 0 20 30 Gallup.......................... 87 55 90 58 / 20 5 10 20 El Morro........................ 83 57 85 61 / 20 5 20 30 Grants.......................... 87 56 89 60 / 20 5 30 40 Quemado......................... 84 58 87 61 / 20 10 40 40 Magdalena....................... 87 66 89 65 / 20 10 40 50 Datil........................... 83 62 85 61 / 30 10 50 40 Reserve......................... 88 57 92 59 / 20 10 40 30 Glenwood........................ 94 70 98 71 / 20 10 40 40 Chama........................... 81 49 84 52 / 10 0 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 85 65 86 64 / 10 0 50 50 Pecos........................... 86 62 84 61 / 5 0 60 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 48 82 49 / 5 0 60 60 Red River....................... 77 48 75 49 / 10 0 70 60 Angel Fire...................... 79 41 76 48 / 5 0 70 60 Taos............................ 88 54 87 57 / 0 0 50 50 Mora............................ 85 55 80 53 / 5 0 70 60 Espanola........................ 93 60 94 63 / 5 0 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 86 63 87 64 / 5 0 50 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 61 90 65 / 5 0 40 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 69 94 69 / 5 0 30 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 70 95 69 / 5 0 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 67 97 69 / 5 0 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 68 96 69 / 5 0 20 40 Belen........................... 96 66 98 68 / 5 5 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 95 67 97 69 / 0 0 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 95 64 97 66 / 5 0 20 40 Corrales........................ 95 68 97 69 / 5 0 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 95 66 98 68 / 5 0 20 40 Placitas........................ 91 67 92 67 / 5 0 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 94 69 96 69 / 5 0 20 40 Socorro......................... 98 73 100 71 / 10 10 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 65 86 62 / 5 0 30 40 Tijeras......................... 88 62 89 64 / 5 0 30 50 Edgewood........................ 88 59 88 61 / 0 0 30 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 57 89 60 / 0 0 40 50 Clines Corners.................. 86 60 83 58 / 0 0 40 50 Mountainair..................... 88 61 89 61 / 5 5 30 50 Gran Quivira.................... 89 62 90 61 / 10 5 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 94 70 95 67 / 10 10 30 50 Ruidoso......................... 86 65 86 61 / 30 20 50 40 Capulin......................... 88 57 77 58 / 20 20 60 60 Raton........................... 92 59 84 58 / 10 10 70 50 Springer........................ 94 60 86 61 / 5 5 70 60 Las Vegas....................... 86 58 81 58 / 0 0 70 70 Clayton......................... 95 65 84 63 / 10 20 30 60 Roy............................. 91 64 84 62 / 10 10 60 70 Conchas......................... 99 68 93 66 / 5 5 40 70 Santa Rosa...................... 95 67 90 65 / 5 5 30 60 Tucumcari....................... 101 69 93 66 / 0 5 20 60 Clovis.......................... 100 71 95 69 / 5 10 30 50 Portales........................ 100 72 98 70 / 5 10 20 50 Fort Sumner..................... 99 71 97 70 / 5 5 20 50 Roswell......................... 104 76 103 75 / 20 20 20 30 Picacho......................... 96 70 95 66 / 40 20 40 40 Elk............................. 94 66 93 61 / 50 20 50 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...33