Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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593 FXUS65 KABQ 252348 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 548 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tranquil weather remains throughout New Mexico, with high temperatures on Wednesday remaining near to 5 degrees above average. Temperatures increase slightly on Thursday, with locations western and central NM seeing near record to record highs. Isolated showers may form over the northern mountains on Friday, though most if not all rain is likely to evaporate before reaching the ground. The weekend will remain dry and calm, with very small temperature differences from day to day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A ridge of high pressure is moving over NM from the northwest continuing the stretch of severely pristine weather across the Land of Enchantment. The 592dm H5 high remains directly over NM Thursday allowing for continued warming. Many central and western areas will see near record to record high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. While 80s to 90s will be present across the eastern plains, these values will be several degrees closer to their climatological averages. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The ridge of high pressure will remain over the southwest US through Friday and into the weekend. The 500mb low, nearing 590-592dm, will be shoved slightly west on Friday, centering itself more over the southern half of the NM/AZ border. Due to these high pressure heights (near 90th percentile for this time of year), temperatures in the western and central regions could be up to 10F above average. Eastern regions, though with similar temperatures, are only sitting roughly 5-7F above average. The aforementioned shoving is a result of a dance that the cycling 500mb low over the MO/IL border and likely Hurricane Helene will perform, sliding the low more over AR and thus forcing our high westward. In conjuncture with the high shifting west, a weak shortwave will slide southward along the ridge, introducing some mid-level moisture into northern NM. With consistent inverted-V forecast soundings over much of northern NM, collocated with near-saturated mid-levels, high based cumulus clouds and virga showers are possible across much of the northern mountains and adjacent highlands. These virga showers could produce isolated gusty winds, and a dry thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Much of the same setup will be on display Saturday and even into Sunday, with afternoon/evening virga showers and gusty winds possible. As the 500mb high continues to lay over much of the southwest through the weekend, very little changes day to day in terms of temperature and precipitation. Western and central zones will see highs near 10F above average, with eastern zones sitting around 5F above average. It isn`t until Monday that we see any signal of change in the pattern, where deterministic models have progged a backdoor cold front to sweep down the Plains and into NM Monday evening and into Tuesday. Ensembles are less excited about this playing out, and have been over the past few days. The main feature driving any potential cold front is the polar jet, located of the coast of British Columbia. Deterministic models and ensembles have this feature strengthening and deepening at varying times, leading to uncertainty about where a cold front would develop along the Plains, and how robust it would be. Nonetheless, a setup is possible for decreased temperatures on Tuesday. Other than a potential drop in temperatures, the forecast remains dry and calm through the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR prevails with light winds during the next 24 hour TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 No critical fire weather concerns thru the next seven days. High pressure dominates the forecast pattern each day with above average warmth and poor to fair ventilation. A frontal boundary does move through eastern plains and westward through the gaps of the central mountain chain Friday. Scattered light showers and virga will be present over the northern mountains and adjacent valley locations Friday and Saturday afternoon. A stray erratic gusty wind will be possible from these showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 49 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 41 83 44 85 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 46 82 50 85 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 39 85 40 87 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 49 82 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 39 85 42 87 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 45 83 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 55 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 48 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 43 86 47 92 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 52 89 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 41 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 55 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 46 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 10 Red River....................... 43 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 27 76 27 73 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 41 82 45 82 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 40 81 46 78 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 51 88 53 89 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 51 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 90 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 52 90 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 45 90 47 91 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 51 91 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 90 48 92 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 58 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 58 91 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 54 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 51 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 86 42 87 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 45 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 51 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 48 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 62 85 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 48 79 44 81 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 45 83 48 78 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 42 86 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 42 87 48 85 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 44 83 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 50 85 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 48 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 89 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 49 89 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 51 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 61 92 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 52 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...33