Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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020 FXUS63 KABR 020816 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few rain showers are possible across south central and east central South Dakota this morning into the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through Wednesday morning. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening across central South Dakota. The main threats with the stronger storms will be large hail and strong wind gusts. - The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists through the workweek. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 An upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains today, with some pretty potent energy sliding across parts of the southern and eastern CWA. As the trough exits to the east, will see the flow become more zonal tonight and Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front will set up over southern South Dakota today, and in conjunction with the upper level energy, may be the focus for precipitation, mainly in the form of rain showers. High pressure will begin to drop in over the region late this afternoon and tonight, keeping conditions dry through Wednesday morning, A frontal boundary associated with low pressure over Colorado will set up over western South Dakota Wednesday afternoon, and may see some shower and thunderstorm activity develop as far east as central South Dakota. Instability will be pretty limited, but will see shear of 40 to 60 knots during the late afternoon hours. SPC has highlighted the western half of the CWA with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats with any storms that develop. High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Wednesday evening starts the long term in westerly flow. Thursday, a low pressure system dips south out of Canada. Deterministic models are very similar on track and timing, bringing the center over northern SD. This low continues to move east through the overnight hours and by Friday morning is over southern MN. Flow will be out of the northwest for Saturday. On Sunday, another low moves across our north. Monday through the end of the period we stay in a northerly flow pattern aloft. Thursday will be the first active day of the period. 60-80% PoPs start in north central and central SD and spread east throughout the day. By mid afternoon, 70+ PoPs cover the entire forecast area. Chances start to diminish overnight but 30% PoPs remain through Friday for eastern SD. 48 hour rain accumulations ending Saturday morning have around an 80% chance of exceeding a tenth of an inch, but only a 40 to 50% chance of exceeding a half inch for eastern SD, less west of the James River. This, of course, does not include any rain from possible thunderstorms. Storms are not expected to be severe at this time. 30 to 45% chances return Saturday night for areas east of the James River, but are expected to diminish Sunday morning. Thursday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, or about 10 to 15 degrees below average. The rest of the period will be around average with highs in the 80s. Winds aren`t expected to be much of a problem with highest wind gusts around 25 mph. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR cigs across the east will clear from west to east overnight as a trough exits the region, leaving VFR conditions. A few more showers and thunderstorms may move south of Pierre tonight, but most of the region is expected to remain dry overnight and through the day Tuesday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Parkin