805
FXUS61 KAKQ 292028
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
428 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity build through Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain will
be possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The front pushes
south of the area Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures
and lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return
later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

- Key message: mainly precip-free tonight, but warm and very
  humid.

The latest WX analysis indicates a WSW flow aloft over the
region, in between a broad upper ridge centered across the SE
CONUS, and a strong upper trough over central Canada into the
upper midwest. At the sfc, the pressure pattern is starting to
transition as a bit of a lee trough is developing well inland,
with high pressure well off the coast of New England, and low
pressure over Lake Superior. It remains quite humid this aftn
with dew pts generally near 70F to the lower 70s well inland to
the mid-upper 70s near the coast. Heat indices range from the
upper 90s to ~103F. Isolated showers continue over eastern NC,
and will generally stay there into the early evening, but will maintain
PoPs to around 15 over interior NE NC. CAMs are not very
excited about any showers/storms through early evening, but
will keep a slight chc over the far NW for where the upper
heights are a bit lower closer to the approaching upper trough.
The models also depict some weak sfc troughing advancing to the
E of the mountains later tonight. With the winds turning to the
SSW this evening/overnight, it will remain warm and very humid
keeping min temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of the area
  Sunday where confidence is highest at reaching heat indices of
  at least 105F.


- The potential is there for strong to severe storms Sunday
  aftn/early evening, likely transitioning more to a heavy rain
  threat later Sunday night.


An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year),
will approach the area from thr NW Sun, crossing the region Sun
night through Mon morning. Ahead of the front, S/SW low level flow
will allow hot and very humid conditions to continue. The
typical mid morning peak in dew pts will tend to see them avg
from the mid 70s to perhaps around 80F along the Albemarle sound
in NE NC, before mixing out a few degrees during the aftn. There
remain some uncertainties regarding an earlier than usual
shower/storm development between 15-18Z, and this could limit
the temperatures to some extent. Right now, this appears most
likely over the northern portions of the CWA so have left them
out of the Advisory for now. Even in areas within the Advisory
over central and southern VA, there will be a chc for some
spotty showers/tstms by mid/late morning but the thinking is
that the anomalously high dew pts should push heat indices
towards 105F rather quickly. While the potential for morning
convection exists, the main threat for sctd to numerous storms
will be in the aftn and into the overnight hours, probably in 2
rounds (earlier with storms well ahead of the front and
overnight with additional forcing from the front itself). The
greatest severe threat will be in the aftn/early evening ahead
of the front with ML CAPE to 1000-1500 J/Kg and will primarily
be from damaging winds given increasing mid level flow with
shear to 30-35 kt. Thus, there is a Slight risk for severe
storms for just about the entire FA, and a Marginal risk for
most of NE NC where shear is a bit less. Locally heavy rainfall
is expected, especially E of I-95 across VA, where PWs will
approach 2.25", and the latest HREF shows 10-30%+ for 3" of rain
in 3 hr. WPC continues with a Marginal ERO for much of the
region. Pcpn will taper off and end from NW to SE from late Sun
night through Mon morning. Lows Sun night will range from around
60F over the far NW to the lower 70s far SE.

Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering
much drier and cooler air into the region during the day. The
sky will become mostly sunny (with lingering clouds over the SE)
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear or mostly clear
and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from
the N. Lows will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Similar
setup for Tuesday, as the sfc high settles across the region
with highs upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast to the mid 80s
inland with comfortable dew pts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Saturday...

- Key Message: Pleasant Tue night, heat and humidity returns
  late in the week.

 The models show good consensus for the return of the upper
ridge over the southeast CONUS by mid to late next week. With
sfc high pressure still along the coast Wed, conditions will be
seasonable for early July with highs mid 80s to around 90F with
moderate humidity levels and little to no chance for rain. Thu-
Sat looks to turn hot with fairly high humidity. Highs will be
mostly in the mid to upper 90s (lower 90s over the Lower MD and
VA ern shore both days). With dewpoints climbing back into the
upper 60s to lower 70s both days, heat indices will likely be over
100F. There also will be a chance for mainly aftn/evening tstms
Thu- Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR except local IFR-MVFR at the Atlantic coast of the ern
shore this aftn. Mainly dry conditions continue into tonight,
with just an isolated threat of a shower or storm. Sctd to
numerous showers/tstms are likely Sun aftn through Sun night,
some of which could be strong to severe and will bring flight
restrictions in heavy rain. Winds shift to the NNE Mon morning
and will be gusty, especially at the coast. High pressure and
drier conditions return for later Mon morning through Tue, and
mainly dry Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- A High Rip Risk for eastern shore (VA/MD) beaches today, with
  moderate Rip Risk for SE VA & NE NC. Moderate Rip for all
  beaches Sunday.

- A brief period of SCA level winds is expected in the bay late
  this afternoon and this evening, and a Small Craft Advisory
  is in effect during this period.

- A period of SCA conditions is very likely for most of the
  waters on Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front.

High pressure is centered off the New England coast early this
aftn. The wind is mainly SE 10-15kt, with some lingering 3-4ft
swell over the ocean. High pressure sinks S off the coast
tonight. There is a period of channeling across the Ches. Bay
late this aftn and evening, with a SSE wind of 15-20kt with
gusts to 25kt. SCAs for the Ches. Bay remain in effect from 4 PM
to 1 AM. Elsewhere, expected a SSE wind of 10-15kt with gusts
to 20kt. The wind shifts to SSW later tonight and diminishes to
10-15kt. Seas should remain 3- 4ft tonight, but could touch 5ft
out near 20nm off the MD coast, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches.
Bay. A rather strong cold front for summer approaches from the
NW Sunday. The wind should generally remain SW 10-15kt out ahead
of the front. However, some strong to severe tstms could bring
some locally stronger wind gusts. A decent CAA surge will follow
the cold front late Sunday night into early Monday morning with
a NNW wind of 15-25kt. Seas build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. SCAs are likely for the Ches. Bay, lower James,
and Currituck Sound, and potentially the coastal waters S of
Cape Charles. The wind remains N 10-15kt Monday aftn, and then
becomes NE 10-15kt Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure
builds SE toward the New England coast. Seas slowly subside to
~3ft. High pressure settles S off the coast by the middle of
next week with the wind becoming southerly.

A high rip current risk continues through this evening for the
northern beaches with a moderate S. A moderate rip current risk
is forecast for all beaches Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ065>069-
     079>090-092-093-095>098-512>520-522>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...LKB/TMG
MARINE...AJZ