Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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770 FXUS61 KAKQ 281416 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1016 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds north of the region through this morning, then slides off the southern New England coast for this afternoon into tonight, providing dry weather. Heat and humidity return for Saturday and Sunday, with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front drops across the area late Sunday night through Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1010 AM EDT Friday... Mid-morning sfc analysis shows high pressure building into the NE CONUS. High pressure will slide offshore later this afternoon. Latest observations show temps in the mid- upper 70s, but a few sites have warmed into the low 80s across the southern inland portion of the FA. Breezy onshore winds will keep temps a bit cooler along the coast with highs in the low- mid 80s. The Maryland beaches likely stay in the upper 70s today. Elsewhere, away from the water, temps warm into the upper 80s. Highest temps look to be in the SW piedmont where highs may reach 90. Staying dry today under partly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity. - Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The sfc high pressure will be off the New England coast for tonight into early Sat, with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the area. Will maintain a dry fcst, but an isolated shower could come up into NE NC by Sat morning. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity return Sat, as high pressure shifts farther out to sea resulting in low level flow becoming SSE. This will allow 850mb temps to rise to ~20C, which supports widespread lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont. Highs near the coast are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90 (lower to mid 80s at the MD beaches), as there will still be a bit of an onshore component to the flow. This combined with sfc dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms over the Piedmont in the vicinity of a subtle lee-side trough. Although mid to upper level height rises will act to suppress more widespread convection despite the fact that there will be a decent amount of sfc-based instability present. Another upper trough and cold front will approach the area on Sun, and that cold front will cross the area Sun evening into Mon morning. The LLVL flow will increase out of the SW on Sun ahead of the front, allowing 850mb temps to rise to 20-23C. This will result in hot and humid conditions with mid 90s expected inland/Piedmont, and 88-94 near the coast (morning lows will be in the mid to locally upper 70s). With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices of 105-107F are in the forecast. Note that the dew point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower than NBM and is more in line with MOS values. In addition, sctd to numerous tstms are expected area-wide from Sun aftn-Sun night along and ahead of the cold front. Tstms will diminish from NW to SE late Sun night. Given the heat and humidity/ample instability, could see localized damaging wind gusts with any storms that form (mainly during the aftn/evening). Lows Sun night in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: - A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake of the cold front, as the 00z/28 EPS and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Mon and Tue. However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day, with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area. Other than a few lingering showers in NE NC Mon morning, dry wx is expected through next Wed. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 AM EDT Friday... Just SCT mid and high clouds will prevail at the TAF sites from early this morning into tonight. But, patchy fog will be likely across far S/SE VA and NE NC until 11-12z, before NE winds pick up over the region, with NE then E winds continuing into tonight with speeds 10-15 kt possible. IFR/MVFR VIS is possible with any fog early this morning. Winds become E then SE and lighter later tonight into Sat morning, with increasing cloud cover. High pressure and mainly dry conditions will prevail for today through at least Sat morning. Sctd showers/tstms are likely Sun into Sun night. High pressure and drier conditions return for Mon. && .MARINE... As of 945 AM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy onshore/southerly winds late this afternoon through the weekend. - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday. The secondary cold front has crossed the waters and E-NE winds of 10-20 kt (w/ gusts to 25 kt N of New Pt Comfort) continue, and we`ve extended the Small Craft Advisory for the nrn two Ches Bay zones until 1 PM. Still expect gusts to 20 kt across the lower bay/rivers for much of today. Winds become E at 10-15 kt by late aftn. As high pressure to the N slides offshore later today and tonight, expect winds veer to the SE, becoming SSE by Saturday morning, with SE winds persisting Sat aftn ~10-15 kt. Another cold front looks to approach the area Sunday, and southerly winds will increase ahead of it late Saturday night as surface high pressure slides farther offshore ahead of the approaching front. Southerly channeling in the lower James and Ches Bay look increasingly likely to create a brief period of SCA- level winds late Saturday into Sunday morning, with winds appearing to fall just short of criteria over the coastal waters and most of the eastern Va rivers. Breezy S-SW winds continue ~10-15kt Sun aftn and night, turning to the NNW behind the front Monday. Models showing winds remaining sub- SCA at this time but given decent CAA for early July, another short-lived SCA appears quite possible Sunday night into Monday, again, mainly in the bay. Showers and storms will also accompany the front, with some SMW/MWS likely to be needed Sunday night. Waves/seas 1-2 ft early this morning. Seas increasing to 3-4ft later this morning (highest north) with developing onshore (NE) wind. Waves increase to around 2-3 ft (highest at the mouth of the bay), then remain at 1-2ft into Saturday. Waves up to 3ft will be possible in the bay onshore flow persisting on Saturday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic- coast beaches in the FA through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG LONG TERM...ERI/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ERI/MAM