452
FXUS61 KAKQ 280146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
946 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds north of the region tonight into Friday.
Heat and humidity return over the weekend with an increased
chance of thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. Another cold front
crosses the area early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 945 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Patchy fog is possible across far southern Virginia and
  Northeast North Carolina overnight.

Temps as of 945 PM ranged from the low-mid 70s for most under
mostly clear skies. A secondary cold front is expected to cross
the area late tonight/early Fri AM with calm winds becoming
NNE/NE 5-10 mph late tonight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear
tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s N to the
lower 70s SE (most in the upper 60s). Additionally, given clear
skies across S/SE VA and NE NC with calm winds, some patchy fog
is possible later tonight (mainly after 2 AM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Not as hot and mainly dry Friday.

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity.

- Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on
  Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night.

High pressure builds across New England Friday following the frontal
passage. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower 80s along
the coast, with mid to upper 80s-90F inland. Surface high pressure
initially settles off the coast Friday night into early Saturday,
with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the
area. Therefore, there is a slight chc to low chc of showers and
perhaps a tstm from central VA and the Piedmont to the MD Eastern
Shore Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows Friday night
are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity
return Saturday as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast and
the low-level flow becomes SSE. This will allow 850mb temps to rise
to ~20C, which supports widespread lower to mid 90s inland. Highs
near the coast are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s (mid
80s at the MD beaches) as there will still be a bit of an onshore
component to the flow. This combined with surface dewpoints in the
lower 70s will result in heat indices of 100-105F. There is a slight
chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms over the Piedmont in vicinity
of a subtle lee-side trough, although mid to upper level height
rises will act to suppress more widespread convection despite the
fact that there will be a decent amount of sfc-based instability
present.

Another upper trough and cold front will approach the area on
Sunday, and that cold front will cross the area late Sunday night
into Monday morning. The LLVL flow will increase out of the SW on
Sunday ahead of the front, allowing 850mb temps to rise to 20-23C.
This will result in hot and humid conditions with mid 90s expected
inland/low-mid 90s near the coast (morning lows will be in the mid
to locally upper 70s). With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas
during peak heating, dangerous heat indices of 105-109F are in the
forecast. Note that the dew point forecast continues to be a couple
degrees lower than NBM and is more in line with MOS values. In
addition, scattered to numerous tstms are expected area-wide from
Sun aftn-Sun night along and ahead of the cold front. Tstms will
diminish from N to S late Sun night. Given the heat and
humidity/ample instability, could see localized damaging wind gusts
with any storms that form (mainly during the aftn/evening). Lows Sun
night in the mid 60s-lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before
  very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day.

A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake
of the cold front as the 12z/27 EPS and GEFS continue to depict
below average 850mb temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday.
However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the
region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day
with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area. Other
than a few lingering showers in NE NC Monday morning, dry wx is
expected through next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...

Mid and high level clouds clear across NE NC and SE VA over the
next few hours with additional cloud development over the
Piedmont tonight. However, most areas remain mostly clear for
the first half of the night with calm winds. Models now show the
potential for some patchy fog to develop across far S/SE VA and
NE NC after 2 AM. IFR/MVFR VIS is possible with any fog. While
confidence is low, have added fog to the ECG taf. ORF is a bit
more challenging given that most models keep the fog just south
of the airport. Any fog quickly erodes after sunrise. SCT
stratus moves in from W to E late tonight into Fri, with CU
developing Fri afternoon. A secondary cold front pushes S
tonight with winds becoming NE/NNE 5-10 kt late tonight into Fri
morning behind it. Winds gradually become E ~10 kt inland and
10-15 kt along the coast by late Fri morning into Fri afternoon.
Winds become light once more Fri night with increasing cloud
cover.

High pressure and dry conditions likely continue through
Saturday. Scattered showers/tstms are likely Sunday afternoon into
early Sunday night. High pressure and drier conditions return
by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

-Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy
onshore/southerly winds through the weekend

-Moderate risk of rip currents tomorrow and Saturday

Last night`s/this morning`s cold front is pushing south and east of
local waters this afternoon with high pressure gradually building in
behind it from the NW. Wind direction varies a bit this afternoon
with latest obs along the Atlantic coast and lower Ches Bay showing
onshore winds while locations in the middle/upper bay showing more
of a northerly wind. Regardless, winds are light at 5-10kt. Winds
will remain lighter and variable in direction through the night.
High pressure slides into the NE CONUS early Fri morning. Winds
become NE and increase to around 15kt (highest in Northern waters) in
a brief surge early Fri. Winds become more easterly through the day
Friday and remain breezy at 10-15kt. As high pressure to the N
slides offshore Fri night into Saturday, winds will turn the SE (10-
15kt). Another cold front will approach the area Sunday, and
southerly winds will increase ahead of it late Saturday night.
Cannot rule out SCAs for this time period, but forecast conditions
fall just short of criteria at 15-20kt over coastal waters and
around 15kt in the bay and rivers. S-SW winds continue at 10-15kt
through Sunday night, turning to the NNW behind the front Monday. A
brief surge will be possible behind the front, but looks to be sub-
SCA for now.

Seas this afternoon are around 2ft and waves are 1ft or less. Seas
likely increase to 3-4ft tomorrow and through the weekend with
breezy onshore flow in place. Waves increase to around 2ft early
tomorrow as winds increase (3ft at the mouth of the bay), then
remain at 1-2ft into Saturday. Waves up to 3ft will be possible in
the bay with the SE winds on Saturday. There is a moderate risk of
rip currents across all Atlantic-coast beaches in the FA tomorrow.
Moderate risk is expected for Saturday as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AM