356
FXUS61 KAKQ 240736
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly crosses the area today and there is a
chance for showers or storms through this afternoon. Drier
weather returns tonight into Tuesday, but humidity and
temperatures increase yet again for Wednesday. Another cold
front approaches the region later Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Not as hot today. Humidity levels will decrease through the day.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop over
  far southeast VA and northeast NC late this morning into the
  afternoon.

994 mb low pressure is located over far northern New England this
morning. The associated cold front extends SSW through the Mid-
Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Locally, the front is is
approaching our western CWA border and scattered shower activity is
noted along and ahead of it. Elsewhere, scattered showers and
embedded storms are occurring over SE VA. With a moderately unstable
air mass in place (along with elevated downdraft instability/DCAPE),
locally strong/gusty winds remain possible in any quick-moving storm
cluster. There also appears to be another reservoir of locally higher
instability from the Northern Neck eastward onto the Eastern Shore
and CAM output suggests potential convective growth here closer to
sunrise here. A locally strong storm also cannot be ruled out.

The front will progress SE through the area through this morning and
will located over the far SE by the afternoon hours.
Despite the frontal passage, temps will still increase to hot
levels, with temps in the upper 80s-lower 90s by the late morning
and early afternoon. However, dew points will drop off considerably
behind the front and it will feel much better across the Piedmont
and N/NE portions of the area. Along and ahead of the front,
moderate-strong instability is forecast to develop given the
presence of a moist/hot airmass. CAMs show numerous storms
developing by noon or 1 PM across far SE VA/NE NC, with storms
progressing S through the rest of the afternoon. Will maintain the
highest PoPs in these areas and have introduced categorical (80%)
PoPs in coastal NE NC and along the Albemarle Sound. While shear
remains on the weak side (~20 kt), soundings show very steep low-
level lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg, and moderately high DCAPE.
This suggests the potential for damaging downburst winds and
marginally severe hail. An isolated supercell could also develop
given any favorable storm or boundary interaction. SPC has
maintained the marginal risk for svr wx across NE NC. Otherwise,
frequent lightning and heavy rain are expected in any storm. QPF
will limited to those who see storms, but could reach 1-2"+ in spots
per the 00z HREF. The dry conditions of late should mitigate any
widespread flash flooding concerns. Expect storms to be S of the
area by the early evening (6-8 PM). Comfortable wx tonight with
lower humidity and lows in the mid-upper 60s, with upper 50s or
lower 60s possible in rural locations across interior NC and VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining hot Tuesday, though humidity levels will be comfortable.

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices may near or exceed
  100 F again.

Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures
will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will
only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become
southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into
the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The hot and humid weather returns again for Wednesday
with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of
the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat
indices increase to 100-105 F in the afternoon and Heat Advisories
may be needed. Another cold front will approach from the
N/NW late in the day. Guidance is trending more aggressive with
shower and storm potential with this feature, especially in the
later afternoon and evening. The highest coverage will tend to focus
over northern and northeast portions of the area. A few storms could
approach strong or severe levels given moderately strong instability
and increasing wind fields aloft (best chance N). Shower/storm
chances linger into the overnight period with temps generally in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front
  later Wednesday and Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

The front will drop S Wednesday night into Thursday, focusing the
thunderstorm chances across southern VA and NE NC Thursday
afternoon. Another period of stronger storms will be possible
during the afternoon heating period, but lower shear and wind fields
across the S suggest a lower threat. Per collaboration with
neighboring offices to our S, have introduced likely PoPs in NE NC.
High temps Thursday generally in the upper 80s to around 90 F.
High pressure will situate N of the area behind the front Friday,
shifting offshore by the weekend. An isolated shower or storm
cannot be ruled out Friday across NC or the far SW Piedmont, but
most should stay dry and mostly sunny. Hot weather is expected for
the weekend as an upper-level dome of high pressure (594+ dm)
expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The ridge retreats W as a
trough drops S of the Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday, bringing
a cold front through the area. Scattered showers and storms are thus
possible Sunday ahead of this front.

Unfortunately, generally low aerial coverage of rainfall through the
extended period suggests continued dry conditions and
potential drought development or expansion.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Monday...

Areas of convection with gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning are moving eastward across SE VA as of 6z this
morning. Brief degraded flight conditions in the near term are
most likely at PHF and possible at ORF. Otherwise, the potential
for widely scattered showers or an isolated storm continues
through this morning. SSW winds of 10-15 kt (w/ gusts ~20 kt)
continue across area terminals through most of this morning.
After 9z, guidance hints at some higher coverage of precip
toward SBY, w/ perhaps an embedded storm as well. Additionally,
some MVFR CIGs will be possible at the southeastern TAF sites as
we approach sunrise, with the best chance at ECG. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms return late this morning into
this afternoon, mainly focused along coastal terminals with
some localized sub- VFR conditions possible. A few storms could
be on the strong to severe side. Winds flip around to the NW in
the later morning and afternoon today in the wake of the front.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected Monday
night through midweek. The next chance for widely scattered
showers and storms is Wed aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories end this morning for the Chesapeake Bay,
  lower James River, Currituck Sound, and the coastal Atlantic.

- Benign marine conditions expected tonight into Tuesday.

- Modest southerly flow returns midweek.

Low pressure is centered over northern New England early this
morning, with a trailing and weakening cold front approaching the
Mid-Atlantic coast from the NW. The wind remains SW 15-20kt with
gusts to ~25kt for most of the marine area aside from the upper
rivers. Seas range from 3-5ft S to 5-7ft N, with waves in the Ches.
Bay 2-4ft. SCAs have been extended to 7 AM for the Ches. Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound, and continue through 10 AM for the
coastal Atlantic.

The cold front pushes offshore this morning into this evening as
weak high pressure builds in from the N. Drier air arrives behind
the front but not much cooler. The wind will shift to NW 10-15kt
across the northern tier of the area later this morning. In vicinity
of the coasts of SE VA/NE NC, the wind will initially be WSW early
Monday, and then become light and locally variable in the aftn as
the front stalls. By tonight, the wind becomes NNW 5-10kt for most
of the marine area, and 10-15kt offshore N of Parramore Is. The
front washes out in vicinity of the Carolina coastal plain Tuesday
with very weak flow expected through early-mid aftn Tuesday. High
pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of the week with sub-SCA
southerly flow returning, generally S to SSW 10-15kt with gusts up
to 20kt and strongest late aftn and evening Tuesday and Wednesday.
Seas will mainly be 2-3ft tonight into Tuesday with 1-2ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft N midweek and waves in the Bay
~2ft with increasing southerly flow. Another weakening cold front
pushes through the region Thursday into Thursday night. The wind
shifts to NE then E late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt
as of this forecast cycle.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high min temp was set 78 was set at Richmond yesterday
(6/23) and a record high max temp of 99 for the date was tied
at Norfolk.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...