138
FXUS61 KAKQ 131102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
702 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into next week with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible into the mid week period
before heat builds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms are expected again today, mainly west of the
  Chesapeake Bay.

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the slow-moving
  convection this afternoon and evening with continued threat
  for localized flash flooding.

Some fog and low stratus clouds are likely to fill in across
the area toward sunrise, especially in areas that have seen
significant rainfall over the last 24 hours. CAM guidance has
struggled mightily over the last few days (to say the least) but
the general consensus shows another day of scattered storms for
the western 2/3 of the area. A weak front that moved in from
the coast on Saturday continues to linger over the area and will
likely serve as the focus for convection again this afternoon.
Low level convergence along the front, combined with continued
deep moisture and weak flow through the column, will result in
the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding again today.
PWATs of 1.75-2" remain entrenched across the region so any
storms that fire this afternoon will pose a localized flooding
risk. WPC has all but the immediate coast in a marginal ERO with
a slight ERO along and west of a line from Mecklenburg county
NNE to Caroline county in VA. Similarly, SPC has outlined a
marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts, generally along
and west of the I-95 corridor. Forecast soundings show ample
instability across the region with MLCAPE on the order of
2000-3000 J/kg by this afternoon. Very weak flow aloft argues
for pulse type convection with very slow storm motions. Not much
dry air aloft to support strong downdraft acceleration today
but collapsing/water-loaded convection could result in locally
strong wind gusts. Seasonably warm again today with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s along the Eastern Shore
coast to the upper 80s and low 90s for areas west of the weak
frontal boundary. Heat indices generally in the upper 90s to low
100s this afternoon for areas west of the front. Some showers
linger across the Piedmont after sunset before ending around
midnight. Muggy and warm tonight with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday, resulting
  in greater coverage of showers and storms. A Flood Watch may
  be necessary for portions of the area.

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday with additional rounds of
  showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area.

Warm and humid again on Monday with greater coverage of showers and
storms expected, mainly across the western 2/3 of the area. Sounding
like a broken record here but we will again see ample instability
and weak shear along with anomalously moist conditions, resulting in
slow-moving showers and storms. Depending on how today plays out, a
Flood Watch may be necessary for portions of the area as cumulative
days of rainfall and soil saturation require less additional
rainfall to flood. WPC has most of the area in a slight ERO with a
marginal ERO from eastern North Carolina NE through Norfolk and into
the Eastern Shore. The highest PoPs are focused west of the
Chesapeake. SPC does not have a severe risk for the area on Monday
but gusty winds will certainly be possible in water-loaded
downdrafts. Showers and storms likely linger later into Monday
evening and even the overnight hours as the focus for precip
shifts east toward the coast. High temps range from the upper
80s along the coast to the low 90s inland. Lows again in the
70s.

The front stalls west or NW of the area on Tuesday, bringing yet
another day of showers and storms with heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. More clouds through the day result in cooler high temps,
generally in the mid 80s inland with upper 80s along the coast.
Highest PoPs are favored over the Piedmont, tapering to chance along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Stagnant pattern continues mid to late week with daily shower and
  storm chances

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Rinse and repeat pattern continues Wed-Sat with storm chances each
afternoon and evening. Upper ridging builds across the area Thursday
and especially Friday, resulting in the potential for Heat
Advisories. Rising heights aloft argue for lower convective coverage
but have continued with the blended guidance in the extended
forecast which maintains 30-50% PoPs (highest W). Highs generally in
the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday, increasing to the low/mid 90s on
Thursday and Friday. Friday still looks to be hottest day of the
forecast period. Heat indices 100-104F are likely Thursday with some
areas of 105+F on Friday. Perhaps a touch cooler on Saturday with
triple digit heat indices confined to the southern third of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

Wide mix of flying weather out there this morning with IFR most
widespread along US 58. All terminals become VFR over the next
hour or two. Light and variable winds this morning become E or
SE this afternoon. Showers and storms are possible again this
afternoon but low confidence in coverage precludes mention in
the TAF for now.

Outlook: Another round of isolated to scattered afternoon-late
evening tstms are expected to recur each day into early next
week, along with the potential for early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

High pressure is centered near Nova Scotia early this morning and
extends SW toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A trough is
located inland over the Piedmont, with weak low pressure well E of
the VA coast. The wind is primarily E 5-10kt early this morning,
with seas ~2ft, and waves 1ft to occasionally 2ft in the Ches. Bay.
Additionally, patchy marine fog is possible early this morning. A
similar pressure pattern continues today into this evening with the
wind becoming SE and generally remaining 5-10kt, although a later
aftn/evening diurnal increase to 8-12kt is expected in the Ches.
Bay. High pressure retreats E of the Canadian Maritimes later
tonight into Monday. Meanwhile, subtropical high pressure rebuilds
off the Southeast coast through the middle of the week. This will
allow the wind to become S to SW 5-10kt early in the week, with a
mid-aftn to early evening sea-breeze influenced shift to SSE Monday
and Tuesday. The pressure gradient tightens Wednesday night into
Thursday as low pressure tracks NE of the Great Lakes into the St.
Lawrence Valley. This will potentially bring SCA conditions in a SW
wind, with the best chc in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes by
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes due to a weakening front
dropping to the region. Seas will mainly be ~2ft through Tuesday and
then 2-3ft by Wednesday, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the
Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by Wednesday night
and Thursday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Aftn/evening showers/tstms will have limited coverage over the
marine area today, with higher chances during the aftn/evening hours
Monday through Wednesday. The main hazards with tstms will be brief
strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced vsby in heavy
rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/NB