108
FXUS61 KAKQ 300730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity build through today ahead of an approaching
cold front. Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain will
be possible this afternoon into tonight. The front pushes south
of the area Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and
lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return
later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EDT Saturday...

- Key message: mainly precip-free tonight, but warm and very
  humid.

Late evening wx analysis indicates WSW flow aloft over the
region, in between a broad upper ridge centered across the SE
CONUS, and a strong upper trough over central Canada into the
upper midwest. At the sfc, there is a lee trough is developing
well inland, with high pressure well off the coast of New
England, and low pressure over Quebec with a cold front still
well to our NW which will approach the region later Sun/Sun
night. It`s still warm and humid with temperatures in the lower-
mid 80s and dew pts in the 70s. Tstms to our north should
generally stay N of the FA overnight, although an isolated
shower or storm can`t be ruled out from the central VA Piedmont
to the MD ern shore. With the SSW winds overnight, it will
remain warm and very humid keeping min temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of the area
  Sunday where confidence is highest at reaching heat indices of
  at least 105F.

- The potential is there for strong to severe storms Sunday
  aftn/early evening, likely transitioning more to a heavy rain
  threat later Sunday night.

An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of
year), will approach the area from thr NW Sun, crossing the
region Sun night through Mon morning. Ahead of the front, S/SW
low level flow will allow hot and very humid conditions to
continue. The typical mid morning peak in dew pts will tend to
see them avg from the mid 70s to perhaps around 80F along the
Albemarle sound in NE NC, before mixing out a few degrees during
the aftn. There remain some uncertainties regarding an earlier
than usual shower/storm development between 15-18Z, and this
could limit the temperatures to some extent. Right now, this
appears most likely over the northern portions of the CWA so
have left them out of the Advisory for now. Even in areas within
the Advisory over central and southern VA, there will be a chc
for some spotty showers/tstms by mid/late morning but the
thinking is that the anomalously high dew pts should push heat
indices towards 105F rather quickly. While the potential for
morning convection exists, the main threat for sctd to numerous
storms will be in the aftn and into the overnight hours,
probably in 2 rounds (earlier with storms well ahead of the
front and overnight with additional forcing from the front
itself). The greatest severe threat will be in the aftn/early
evening ahead of the front with ML CAPE to 1000-1500 J/Kg and
will primarily be from damaging winds given increasing mid level
flow with shear to 30-35 kt. Thus, there is a Slight risk for
severe storms for just about the entire FA, and a Marginal risk
for most of NE NC where shear is a bit less. Locally heavy
rainfall is expected, especially E of I-95 across VA, where PWs
will approach 2.25", and the latest HREF shows 10-30%+ for 3" of
rain in 3 hr. WPC continues with a Marginal ERO for much of the
region. Pcpn will taper off and end from NW to SE from late Sun
night through Mon morning. Lows Sun night will range from
around 60F over the far NW to the lower 70s far SE.

Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering
much drier and cooler air into the region during the day. The
sky will become mostly sunny (with lingering clouds over the SE)
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear or mostly clear
and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from
the N. Lows will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Similar
setup for Tuesday, as the sfc high settles across the region
with highs upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast to the mid 80s
inland with comfortable dew pts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Saturday...

- Key Message: Pleasant Tue night, heat and humidity returns
  late in the week.

 The models show good consensus for the return of the upper
ridge over the southeast CONUS by mid to late next week. With
sfc high pressure still along the coast Wed, conditions will be
seasonable for early July with highs mid 80s to around 90F with
moderate humidity levels and little to no chance for rain. Thu-
Sat looks to turn hot with fairly high humidity. Highs will be
mostly in the mid to upper 90s (lower 90s over the Lower MD and
VA ern shore both days). With dewpoints climbing back into the
upper 60s to lower 70s both days, heat indices will likely be over
100F. There also will be a chance for mainly aftn/evening tstms
Thu- Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions were prevailing at the TAF sites very early this
morning, with SSW winds 5-12 kt. Mainly dry conditions will
continue into this morning, except for an isolated shower extrm
NNW areas. Dry/mainly VFR through 16-17z today, except for a
low chc of a shower/tstm at SBY. Sctd to numerous showers/tstms
are likely this aftn through late this evening, with showers
and a few tstms likely tonight into early Mon morning. Some
of the storms could be strong to severe (esply during this
aftn/evening), with brief wind gusts of 30-50 kt possible.
Any tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR-LIFR flight
restrictions in heavy rain. Winds shift to the NNE Mon morning
and will be gusty, esply at the coast. High pressure and drier
conditions return for later Mon morning/early Mon aftn through
Tue, and mainly dry Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches through
  Monday.

- A period of SCA conditions is expected for the bay, lower
  James and Currituck sound late tonight into Monday with
  northerly winds behind a cold front.

- High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period,
  with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek.

Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb surface high pressure centered east
of Atlantic Canada early this morning, extending SW well off
the New England and northeast coastline. ~1004mb sfc low
pressure continues to cross central Quebec, with the associated
surface cold front pushing east of the eastern Great Lakes into
the northeast. Locally, winds are SSW ~10-15 kt. Southerly
channeling which resulted in a surge of low-end SCA winds have
gradually diminished as expected this morning, and expect any
gusts to ~20 kt over the bay and lower James to diminish over
the next couple of hours. Will therefore allow SCA to expire on
time at 08z. Seas should remain 3- 4ft this morning, with waves
2-3ft on the bay. Sub-SCA winds through this afternoon, with
winds backing to the SSE once again ~10-15 kt.

The previously referenced cold front, a strong cold front relative
to late June/July, approaches from the NW today. Still expecting
some strong to severe tstms ahead of the frontal passage late
this afternoon and this evening. These storms could bring some
locally stronger convective wind gusts, best handled with marine
statements and Warnings as needed. The front crosses into the
area after midnight late tonight/early Monday, with a decent
CAA surge post-frontal. NNW winds of 15-25kt expected. Seas
build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCAs have
been hoisted for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck
Sound. Have held off for the coastal waters for now, but a brief
window of NNW winds ~25 kt are possible early Monday, with the
best chances south of Cape Charles. Winds remain N ~15-20 kt
into Monday aftn, before diminishing to NE 10-15kt Monday night
into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the New England
coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the lower bay
and lower James Monday night before gradually diminishing. Seas
slowly subside to ~3ft by late Monday night, as high pressure
builds into the region. The high eventually settles S off the
coastal Carolinas by midweek with the wind becoming southerly.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches Sunday and Monday.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ065>069-079>090-092-093-095>098-512>520-522>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/MAM