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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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127 FXUS61 KAKQ 272353 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 753 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds north of the region tonight into Friday. Heat and humidity return over the weekend with an increased chance of thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. Another cold front crosses the area early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 755 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Patchy fog is possible across far southern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina overnight. An upper level trough continues to move across SE portions of the region this evening with showers now S of the local area. A secondary cold front is expected to cross the area late tonight/early Fri AM with calm winds becoming NNE/NE 5-10 mph late tonight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s N to the lower 70s SE (most in the upper 60s). Additionally, given clear skies across S/SE VA and NE NC with calm winds, some patchy fog is possible later tonight (mainly after 2 AM). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Not as hot and mainly dry Friday. - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity. - Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. High pressure builds across New England Friday following the frontal passage. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower 80s along the coast, with mid to upper 80s-90F inland. Surface high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday night into early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a slight chc to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central VA and the Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity return Saturday as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast and the low-level flow becomes SSE. This will allow 850mb temps to rise to ~20C, which supports widespread lower to mid 90s inland. Highs near the coast are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s (mid 80s at the MD beaches) as there will still be a bit of an onshore component to the flow. This combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices of 100-105F. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms over the Piedmont in vicinity of a subtle lee-side trough, although mid to upper level height rises will act to suppress more widespread convection despite the fact that there will be a decent amount of sfc-based instability present. Another upper trough and cold front will approach the area on Sunday, and that cold front will cross the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. The LLVL flow will increase out of the SW on Sunday ahead of the front, allowing 850mb temps to rise to 20-23C. This will result in hot and humid conditions with mid 90s expected inland/low-mid 90s near the coast (morning lows will be in the mid to locally upper 70s). With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices of 105-109F are in the forecast. Note that the dew point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower than NBM and is more in line with MOS values. In addition, scattered to numerous tstms are expected area-wide from Sun aftn-Sun night along and ahead of the cold front. Tstms will diminish from N to S late Sun night. Given the heat and humidity/ample instability, could see localized damaging wind gusts with any storms that form (mainly during the aftn/evening). Lows Sun night in the mid 60s-lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 12z/27 EPS and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area. Other than a few lingering showers in NE NC Monday morning, dry wx is expected through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Thursday... Mid and high level clouds clear across NE NC and SE VA over the next few hours with additional cloud development over the Piedmont tonight. However, most areas remain mostly clear for the first half of the night with calm winds. Models now show the potential for some patchy fog to develop across far S/SE VA and NE NC after 2 AM. IFR/MVFR VIS is possible with any fog. While confidence is low, have added fog to the ECG taf. ORF is a bit more challenging given that most models keep the fog just south of the airport. Any fog quickly erodes after sunrise. SCT stratus moves in from W to E late tonight into Fri, with CU developing Fri afternoon. A secondary cold front pushes S tonight with winds becoming NE/NNE 5-10 kt late tonight into Fri morning behind it. Winds gradually become E ~10 kt inland and 10-15 kt along the coast by late Fri morning into Fri afternoon. Winds become light once more Fri night with increasing cloud cover. High pressure and dry conditions likely continue through Saturday. Scattered showers/tstms are likely Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night. High pressure and drier conditions return by Monday. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Key messages: -Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy onshore/southerly winds through the weekend -Moderate risk of rip currents tomorrow and Saturday Last night`s/this morning`s cold front is pushing south and east of local waters this afternoon with high pressure gradually building in behind it from the NW. Wind direction varies a bit this afternoon with latest obs along the Atlantic coast and lower Ches Bay showing onshore winds while locations in the middle/upper bay showing more of a northerly wind. Regardless, winds are light at 5-10kt. Winds will remain lighter and variable in direction through the night. High pressure slides into the NE CONUS early Fri morning. Winds become NE and increase to around 15kt (highest in Northern waters) in a brief surge early Fri. Winds become more easterly through the day Friday and remain breezy at 10-15kt. As high pressure to the N slides offshore Fri night into Saturday, winds will turn the SE (10- 15kt). Another cold front will approach the area Sunday, and southerly winds will increase ahead of it late Saturday night. Cannot rule out SCAs for this time period, but forecast conditions fall just short of criteria at 15-20kt over coastal waters and around 15kt in the bay and rivers. S-SW winds continue at 10-15kt through Sunday night, turning to the NNW behind the front Monday. A brief surge will be possible behind the front, but looks to be sub- SCA for now. Seas this afternoon are around 2ft and waves are 1ft or less. Seas likely increase to 3-4ft tomorrow and through the weekend with breezy onshore flow in place. Waves increase to around 2ft early tomorrow as winds increase (3ft at the mouth of the bay), then remain at 1-2ft into Saturday. Waves up to 3ft will be possible in the bay with the SE winds on Saturday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic-coast beaches in the FA tomorrow. Moderate risk is expected for Saturday as well. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AM