233
FXUS61 KAKQ 032342
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the
western Atlantic through late this week. Heat and humidity build
over the region from Independence Day through early next week.
Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms also return from Independence Day into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Pleasant and dry conditions continue tonight.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper ridge across the Gulf
Coast and Southeast this afternoon, with a trough over the
Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the
Mid- Atlantic and Northeast coasts, with a cold front well to
the NW of the region and approaching the Ohio Valley. Partly to
mostly sunny this afternoon with temperatures in the upper
70s/around 80F along the coast and in the mid 80s inland.
Dewpoints are reasonable for early July and mainly in the lower
to mid 60s. Surface high pressure sinks S off the coast tonight.
Becoming more humid later tonight/toward morning with overnight
lows in the upper 60s to around 70F under a mostly clear sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions return for Thursday through Saturday.

- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the
  evening on Independence Day and again on Friday and Saturday.
  Best rain chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into
  the VA Piedmont.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return Independence Day
with increasing SSW flow as the surface high becomes centered
off the Southeast coast. High temperatures range from the upper
80s/lower 90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. Continue
to undercut the very moist NBM dewpoint numbers, but nonetheless
more humid Thursday, with PWs to climb to ~2.00 by Thursday
night. Forecast dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F during
peak heating result in heat indices well into the upper 90s to
lower 100s.

There is a potential for widely scattered showers/tstms
developing along pre-frontal/lee trough Thursday afternoon and
evening. Rain chances are generally 20-40% (although 60% for the
NW Piedmont) for mainly late aftn/evening tstms (highest PoPs
NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Ocean City MD line). A convective
Marginal Risk remains in place from the SPC for the far NW, with
gusty winds from wet microbursts the main hazard. Partly
cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.

PWs trend up further for Friday, reaching 2-2.25" by Friday
morning (*near daily max value). Forecast highs Friday are
similar to Thursday. However, it will be a bit more humid and
with dewpoints slightly higher, heat indices at or above 105F
are likely for central and SE VA and into NE NC. There is
another chance of afternoon showers/tstms Friday along the lee
trough lingering over the area. Partly cloudy warm and muggy
Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. The weakening
cold front drops into the area Saturday. Once again hot and very
humid ahead of the boundary with highs in the lower to mid 90s
and heat indices of 105-109F possible if not likely. This
boundary should become the focus for showers/tstms by afternoon.
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place and the
500mb flow does increase to 30-35kt across the NW, so some
stronger tstms are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity linger for Sunday into the
  first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled with a
  chance for mainly late day and evening showers and storms each
  day.

The upper ridge slowly shifts E off the SE coast while slowly
weakening later this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper trough will
remain to our NW over the Great Lakes. The weak cold front from
Saturday may push far enough E Sunday to allow some drier air to
filter in from the NW, with slightly lower chances of
afternoon/evening showers/tstms, and mainly over the SE. The
front lifts back N and remains in vicinity of the region early
to the middle of next week with chances of afternoon/evening
showers/tstms continuing. High will generally be in the upper
80s to lower 90s, and locally mid 90s, with heat indices mainly
100-105F Sunday through Wednesday. Have remained a little below
the typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect
them to be back in the low- mid 70s for the period. Nights will
be warm and humid with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
Some very patchy early morning stratus is possible Thursday
morning. Otherwise, VFR Independence Day with SCT-BKN late
morning to aftn CU with bases of 4-6kft and a SSW wind of
8-12kt. A few showers/tstms could drift into RIC after 19-20z
and closer to 00z at SBY.

Any showers/tstms should dissipate later Thursday evening.
There is a potential for early morning shallow ground fog/low
stratus Friday through Sunday mornings with increased low-level
moisture. This will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening
showers/tstms as a slow moving boundary approaches from the NW
Thursday/Friday and gradually weakens as it crosses into the
region over the weekend into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- South winds increase to 15-20 kt across the upper Chesapeake Bay
  tonight with Small Craft Advisories in effect.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed late Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday evening for the Chesapeake Bay and the
  Virginia coastal waters.

- A period of elevated, diurnally-driven southerly winds is
  possible Friday and Saturday with Small Craft Advisory
  conditions possible.

High pressure is situated offshore this afternoon, its center to the
NE of local waters. High pressure will remain along the coast
through through tomorrow. A weak front will attempt to pass through
the area Friday, which will push the high away from the coast. Winds
today are out of the ESE with latest obs reflecting flow of 5-10kt.
Over the next few days, winds will follow a diurnal pattern of
becoming slightly elevated in the evenings and early overnight
hours. This evening, SSE winds will pick up to 10-15 in the coastal
waters and rivers, around 15kt in the lower/middle bay, and 15-20 in
the upper bay (which has a SCA for tonight). Tomorrow morning, winds
fall back to 10-15 everywhere and turn SSW. The pressure gradient
tightens a bit tomorrow evening between the approaching front and
the offshore high. This, combined with sea breeze effects, will
allow SSE winds to pick up to 15-20kt in the bay and coastal waters.
The rivers/currituck sound look to stay ~10kt in the evening, but
could see potential for a few elevated gusts above 15kt. Additional
SCAs will likely be need for this time period. Friday follows a
similar pattern as Thurs, except the evening increase looks to be
higher in the coastal waters (15-20kt) than in the bay (10-15kt).
Similar conditions expected Sat, then lighter winds expected Sunday.

Seas this afternoon are 2-3ft, waves are 1-2ft. Seas pick up to 3ft
overnight, then increase to 3-4ft Thursday evening through Sat.
There is potential for seas ~5ft out near 20nm Fri-Sat, mostly N of
Cape Charles. Waves will follow a general pattern of 1-2ft during
the early morning-early afternoon hours, then increasing to 2-3ft in
the evening hours with the diurnal wind increase.

Regarding rip currents, have decided to upgrade the northern beaches
to a high rip current risk for tomorrow due to increasing wave
heights, longer periods (~12sec), and near shore normal wave
directions. Have maintained the moderate risk for the southern
beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

        7/4          7/5       7/6
RIC   100/2002    102/2012   105/1977
ORF    98/1997     98/2012   102/1881
SBY   100/1919    102/2012   102/2010
ECG   100/1997    100/2012    99/2012


Record high minimum temperatures Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

         7/4         7/5       7/6
RIC    77/1900     79/2012    80/2012
ORF    79/2012     80/1999    80/1999
SBY    78/2012     81/2012    77/2012
ECG    78/2012     77/2018    78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...AM
CLIMATE...AKQ