493
FXUS61 KALY 302354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
754 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a cold front moving across the region, the threat
for showers and stronger thunderstorms will lower this evening, with
cooler and drier air moving into the area.  It will be comfortable
tomorrow with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures will
turn warmer again towards the mid-week, with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms returning by Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 755 PM EDT...

**The threat for severe thunderstorms has ended. Therefore, the
 Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire with this
 update.**

A few rogue showers within the Mid-Hudson Valley and northwest
Connecticut are all that remain of today`s convective activity
as the surface cold front now lies south and east of Albany.
Behind the front, conditions have become more comfortable with
temperatures having fallen into the 60s and 70s with dewpoints
primarily in the 50s. A downward trend of temperatures and
dewpoints will continue throughout the evening and into tonight
with dry air being ushered into the mid levels of the atmosphere
with high pressure approaching from the west. The aforementioned
scattered showers should taper off here in the next hour or two
with KENX radar showing a weakening trend in reflectivity with
latest scans.

The forecast remains in good shape with this update and only
minor adjustments to temperatures and PoPs were needed to ensure
continuity with latest obs and trends. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 433 PM EDT...Surface cold front is crossing western and
northern parts of the forecast area, as dewpoints can be seen
falling into the 50s and lower 60s in NYS mesonet obs across the
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Another line of convection is
trying to develop just ahead of the front across the eastern
Catskills, Taconics and the Berkshires.

Although there had been convection earlier today across southern
areas, SPC mesoanalysis shows instability has recovered for
these southern areas, with MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. 0-6 km
bulk shear remains very strong around 50 kts. As a result, there
will be the potential for some of these additional storms to
become strong to severe as they track eastward ahead of the
front and southern areas could see another round of severe
storms over the next few hours. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect for Ulster, Columbia, Dutchess, Berkshire and
Litchfield Counties and the main hazard continues to be
damaging straight line winds. Further north, the Watch has been
cancelled for Albany, Greene, Schenectady and Rensselaer
Counties, as the threat has cleared that area with the front
about to cross those areas from the northwest very shortly.

Based off the latest CAMs, this final line of thunderstorms
ahead of the front will be exiting our far southeastern areas by
5 to 7 pm. Once this occurs, all areas will be seeing a cooler
and drier west to northwest flow across the area. With the upper
level shortwave trough passing overhead, some clouds are still
expected, especially for northern and high terrain areas. A few
additional light showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out for
northern areas overnight, but most spots will be done with the
precip. With the breezy west to northwest conditions and
lowering dewpoints, no threat for any fog tonight. Overnight
lows will fall into the 50s for most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected on Monday. The
upper level shortwave will continue departing off to the east on
Monday, so any additional showers will be located over central
and eastern New England. While there may be some clouds to start
the day, there should be increasing amounts of sun through the
day. A gusty northerly wind will allow for dry and less humid
conditions, with comfortable dewpoints in the 50s (some 40s
across northern areas). Highs will be in the 70s across much of
the area.

With high pressure overhead, Monday night will be clear and
quiet, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Some patchy fog
may form in the typical favorable spots, but overall it will be
a very comfortable night for early July.

High pressure will slowly slide eastward on Tuesday across New
England. WHile temperatures will be warmer than Monday with
highs in the 80s, it will still be fairly dry for July, with
dewpoints still in the 50s. After a sunny start to the day, some
clouds may increase by late Tuesday. No precip is expected
through Tuesday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It will be turning warmer and more humid through the long term
period.

A warm front will be approaching the area on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Clouds will be increasing through the day on
Wednesday with high temps in the mid 80s in valley areas.
Dewpoints may start to rise a little bit, but the best increase
in low level moisture may not occur until Thursday. It looks dry
for most of Wednesday, but there will be a chance for some
showers by late Wed into Wednesday night, as the front crosses
the area from the west. A few rumbles of thunder are possible,
but the nocturnal timing should help prevent much strong winds
from being able to mix down to the surface.

Warm and more muggy conditions are expected for Thursday into
Friday. Valley areas should reach the mid to upper 80s each day,
with dewpoints in the 60s. A stray afternoon or evening shower
or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, but overall large scale
forcing is weak, so precip coverage seems limited at this time.

Over the weekend, another disturbance will be approaching from
the west. This could allow for somewhat higher coverage of
showers and thunderstorms during the day on Saturday, although
the exact timing of this disturbance is still uncertain.
Overall, temps will still be above normal with highs well into
the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z/Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this evening with shower and thunderstorm activity
having just about ceased across the area. The only terminal
currently at threat of receiving some rain is KPOU where a
nearby shower looks to cross into the terminal vicinity shortly.
However, no impact to VFR conditions is anticipated.

VFR conditions are anticipated to remain steady throughout the
duration of the 00z TAF cycle with high pressure beginning to
approach from the west acting to enforce a drier airmass across
the region. Latest thermal profiles did indicates some lower
cloud bases especially throughout the overnight with some
moisture becoming trapped in the lower levels. However, with
the amount of dry air present within this environment, it is not
thought that MVFR ceilings will develop.

Winds throughout the period will remain breezy, further negating
the probability of mist/fog formation tonight. Winds will
primarily prevail out of the northwest at sustained speeds of
5-8 kt overnight before increasing to 10-12 kt during the day
tomorrow. KALB/KGFL/KPSF should lose their current 15-25 kt
gusts as daylight is lost but all terminals should develop gusts
up to 20 kt again by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant