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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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515 FXUS61 KALY 010538 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 138 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... With a cold front moving across the region, the threat for showers and stronger thunderstorms will lower this evening, with cooler and drier air moving into the area. It will be comfortable tomorrow with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures will turn warmer again towards the mid-week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms returning by Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 135 AM EDT, low clouds are expanding southward for most areas west and east of the Hudson River, as well as across most of the southern Adirondacks. Some light showers/sprinkles were occurring across portions of the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. As upper level trough moves across the region through sunrise, we expect cloud coverage to increase further, and will develop across portions of the Hudson River Valley as well, especially along and north of I-90. Isolated to scattered showers/sprinkles will also likely increase in coverage, especially across the eastern Catskills, southern Greens and Berkshires. West/northwest winds will occasionally gust up to 20-25 mph, within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires through daybreak. Temperatures will fall into the mid/upper 50s for many areas, with lower 50s across higher terrain areas, perhaps even slightly cooler across the SW Adirondacks. .PREVIOUS UPDATE...As of 1020 PM EDT...Light showers/virga have moved into the Southwest Adirondacks this evening in association with yet another weak wind shift boundary tracking south. The upper trough axis is nearing our overhead this evening and will traverse the region tonight as high pressure builds upstream. Outside of these light showers, the remainder of the region should remain dry throughout the night courtesy of our new, drier airmass. Only minor adjustments were necessary to temperatures and PoPs to ensure continuity with latest obs. Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape with additional details below... .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... As of 433 PM EDT...Surface cold front is crossing western and northern parts of the forecast area, as dewpoints can be seen falling into the 50s and lower 60s in NYS mesonet obs across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Another line of convection is trying to develop just ahead of the front across the eastern Catskills, Taconics and the Berkshires. Although there had been convection earlier today across southern areas, SPC mesoanalysis shows instability has recovered for these southern areas, with MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. 0-6 km bulk shear remains very strong around 50 kts. As a result, there will be the potential for some of these additional storms to become strong to severe as they track eastward ahead of the front and southern areas could see another round of severe storms over the next few hours. Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for Ulster, Columbia, Dutchess, Berkshire and Litchfield Counties and the main hazard continues to be damaging straight line winds. Further north, the Watch has been cancelled for Albany, Greene, Schenectady and Rensselaer Counties, as the threat has cleared that area with the front about to cross those areas from the northwest very shortly. Based off the latest CAMs, this final line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will be exiting our far southeastern areas by 5 to 7 pm. Once this occurs, all areas will be seeing a cooler and drier west to northwest flow across the area. With the upper level shortwave trough passing overhead, some clouds are still expected, especially for northern and high terrain areas. A few additional light showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out for northern areas overnight, but most spots will be done with the precip. With the breezy west to northwest conditions and lowering dewpoints, no threat for any fog tonight. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s for most spots. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cooler and less humid conditions are expected on Monday. The upper level shortwave will continue departing off to the east on Monday, so any additional showers will be located over central and eastern New England. While there may be some clouds to start the day, there should be increasing amounts of sun through the day. A gusty northerly wind will allow for dry and less humid conditions, with comfortable dewpoints in the 50s (some 40s across northern areas). Highs will be in the 70s across much of the area. With high pressure overhead, Monday night will be clear and quiet, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Some patchy fog may form in the typical favorable spots, but overall it will be a very comfortable night for early July. High pressure will slowly slide eastward on Tuesday across New England. WHile temperatures will be warmer than Monday with highs in the 80s, it will still be fairly dry for July, with dewpoints still in the 50s. After a sunny start to the day, some clouds may increase by late Tuesday. No precip is expected through Tuesday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... It will be turning warmer and more humid through the long term period. A warm front will be approaching the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Clouds will be increasing through the day on Wednesday with high temps in the mid 80s in valley areas. Dewpoints may start to rise a little bit, but the best increase in low level moisture may not occur until Thursday. It looks dry for most of Wednesday, but there will be a chance for some showers by late Wed into Wednesday night, as the front crosses the area from the west. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but the nocturnal timing should help prevent much strong winds from being able to mix down to the surface. Warm and more muggy conditions are expected for Thursday into Friday. Valley areas should reach the mid to upper 80s each day, with dewpoints in the 60s. A stray afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, but overall large scale forcing is weak, so precip coverage seems limited at this time. Over the weekend, another disturbance will be approaching from the west. This could allow for somewhat higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Saturday, although the exact timing of this disturbance is still uncertain. Overall, temps will still be above normal with highs well into the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06z/Tue...High pressure will slowly build into the region through the upcoming TAF period. Patchy MVFR/VFR stratocumulus clouds will be around through the overnight trending to just some fair weather cumulus above 5000 feet on Monday. Skies will then trend clear Monday evening with the high building overhead. West to northwesterly wind mainly between 5 and 10 kt overnight will become north to northwesterly at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt on Monday. Wind will decrease to less than 10 kt Monday evening. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant/KL SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Rathbun