088
FXUS61 KALY 132330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
730 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to slowly advance eastward through the
day tomorrow supporting additional areas of rain and
thunderstorms, especially for areas south and east of the
Capital District. Heavy rain leading to localized flooding is
the primary concern before confidence increases for another
period of dangerous heat for the middle to end of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe thunderstorms
  are once again a concern tomorrow for areas mainly near and
  south and east of the Capital District. Areas where heavy rain
  or storms can repeatedly impact will have the highest risk for
  flooding.

- There is a 50 to 75% chance of high temperatures exceeding 90
  degrees on Tuesday in valley areas. Such warm temperatures
  combined with moderate humidity may result in heat index
  values nearing the 95F heat advisory criteria.

Discussion:

As of 730 PM EDT...A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms
continue to impact the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. The
heaviest rainfall rates have been around 1 inch per hour within
the heaviest downpours over the central Adirondacks. This
activity will continue to spread eastward, but should start to
weaken somewhat with the loss of daytime heating. Heading into
tonight, convection will gradually weaken as we approach
Midnight and areas of rain/storms push down the Mohawk Valley.
While periods of rain and storms continue along the boundary
overnight, severe weather and flooding should diminish.

We are start Monday with the boundary around the Capital
District with clouds and stratus widespread once again. The very
warm and moist buoyant sector will now be positioned from the
Capital District south and east into western New England, the
mid-Hudson Valley and the eastern Catskills. As clouds give way
to break of sun eroding the low-level inversion and PWATs
remain high around 2" (nearly 2 standard deviations above normal
per the NAEFS), ML CAPE will once again quickly increase to
1-2k J/kg. As instability increases by midday into the early
afternoon so will the coverage of convection and heavy rain.
Similar kinematics to Sunday, the very weak flow oriented
parallel to the boundary and high FZ heights supportive of
efficient warm rain processes will easily result in heavy
downpours with rain potentially training/backbuilding or
repeatedly impacting a given area. This raises concerns for
isolated to scattered flash flooding and we collaborated with
WPC to increase the ERO to a slight risk (level 2 of 4) from the
Capital District south and east. No flood watch issued on this
shift given we already have a flood watch out for Herkimer
County for tonight but we will re-evaluate the need with our
next forecast package. Flash flood guidance values are once
again rather high at 2-3" in 3 hours and soil moisture is low but
the 12 UTC HREF shows 40-50% chance of exceeding 2" of rain in
3 hours tomorrow P.M into early evening with the probability
match mean even showing 10% chance of exceeding 3" in 3 hours.
As the main trough axis arrives by late afternoon enhancing
forcing for ascent with guidance even suggesting a secondary
low develops along the boundary, coverage and intensity of heavy
rain will likely further raising flooding concerns. Deep layer
shear is again weak ranging 20-25kts with mediocre lapse rates
5-5.5C/km but given potential for wet microbursts resulting
damaging winds, we collaborated with SPC to introduce a marginal
risk in this area. Heavy rain and storm coverage shifts in our
far southern zones including Dutchess/Litchfield County by early
evening but activity should wane shortly after Midnight.

Tuesday finally turns drier as weak high pressure and shortwave
ridging from the Ohio Valley builds eastward. Our boundary
stalls just to our south and some lingering showers/clouds
could graze our southern zones so 20-30% were introduced in
these areas. Otherwise, we will need to monitor the heat on
Tuesday and potential need for heat advisories. While northwest
winds in the wake of the front will usher in slightly lower
PWATs/humidity, dew points remain in the upper 60s. Given much
more sunshine for areas from the I-90 corridor northward,
daytime highs will likely rise into the upper 80s to low 90s in
valley areas resulting in peak heat index values flirting with
the 95F criteria. The higher insolation will support deeper
boundary layer mixing helping to reduce dew points during peak
heating and overall coverage of 95F+ heat index values but it
certainly will be close and bares monitoring. More clouds in
the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT may limit the potential to hit
the 95F criteria so less confidence there.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Index values or "feels-Like" temperatures may reach the
  mid 90s to low 100s in the valley areas for the middle to end
  of this week.

- Watching Thursday - Friday for increased chances for
  thunderstorms and potential severe weather.

Discussion:

Wednesday will likely be the hottest day of the week. With weak
ridging building overhead resulting in southwest flow aloft,
850 hPa isotherms build back to +18 to +20C. Therefore, there is
a 50 - 80% probability of high temperatures exceeding 90F for
elevations mainly below 1000 ft. Dew points will also be back on
the rise given the flow regime and current peak heat index
values range from the upper 90s to low 100s. HeatRisk values
continue to be in the "major" range for Wednesday. While most of
the day will be dry, clouds increase through the day as our
ridge slides to our east and the boundary stalled to our south
gradually lifts back northward as a warm front. Chances for
rain and storms return late Wed P.M into Wed night as a
shortwave tracks through the Saint Lawrence River Valley with
forcing for ascent spreading into the hot and humid air mass. By
Thursday, we remain in the very warm and moist air mass but
increased cloud coverage could reduce high temperatures a few
degrees so not as confident as Wednesday in needing heat
advisories. Given additional shortwaves tracking within the
westerly flow regime, POPs trend from chance to likely on
Thursday for showers and thunderstorms. Timing of shortwaves
remain uncertain so not expecting a complete washout but periods
of rain/storms are possible. Similar to Wed night, Thursday
night will not provide much relief from the very warm and muggy
air mass with overnight lows only dropping into the low to mid
70s (60s higher terrain).

As discussed in the previous discussion, we will need to closely
monitor the Thursday evening - Friday time for our next
potential severe weather event. A potent cold front and
shortwave trough looks to track through the region and with it
entering into such a warm and moist environment, instability
will be more than sufficient to support strong updrafts while
the forcing will provide strong lift and shear to support
organized convection. Timing will be key as a later day or
overnight arrival of the sfc boundary and shortwave will limit
the overlap with peak heating/instability and thereby limit
severe potential. Zonal flow then ensues for the weekend as sfc
high pressure ushers in drier air and a relief from the
heat/humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites ahead of
an approaching cold front. A large broken line of showers and
thunderstorms are currently over the Adirondacks and these may
impact KGFL over the next few hours. Although it should weaken
somewhat, a period of rain and thunder is expected at KGFL
through 03z with occasional MVFR conditions for visibility.
Further south, some showers may impact KALB/KPSF into the
overnight, but the heaviest activity should remain north and
west. Brief MVFR visibility cannot be ruled out through 08z or
so from showers. This activity look to stay north of KPOU.
Southerly winds around 10 kts will gradually decrease through
the overnight to 5 kts or less.

For the late night hours, some MVFR stratus may develop for all
TAF sites, especially if rainfall occurs. Ceilings will be
around 1000-1500 ft. Some IFR cannot be totally ruled out, but
it looks to mainly be MVFR at this time. This stratus may linger
until the mid to late morning hours before dissipating for all
sites.

Once any stratus burns off, it should be VFR with bkn cigs
around 4-5 kft for the day on Monday. As the front crosses, some
scattered showers or t-storms are expected during the afternoon
hours, especially for KPSF and KPOU. IFR conditions for
visibility within brief bursts of heavier rainfall can`t be
ruled out. Some gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms
as well. Otherwise, it will stay VFR with bkn cigs around 4-5
and southerly winds around 5 to 10 kts through the early
evening hours.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CIRA ALPW satellite imagery continues to show increasing low-
level moisture pooling ahead of the incoming slow moving boundary
with PWATs nearing 2.0" and warm cloud depths >12 kft. Mid-
level flow remains weak and fairly parallel to the approaching
cold front supporting the potential for backbuilding and
training storms late this afternoon into tonight for areas
north/west of the Capital District. Our flash flood watch
remains in effect through 5 AM for southern Herkimer County as
there are pockets of lower flash flood guidance values near 1-2"
in 1 hour. With such efficient warm rain processes at play,
rainfall rates could reach up to 1-2" per hour and locally up to
3" if rain persist over a long enough time. The flood threat is
greatest for the more urban areas, as well as low-lying and
poor drainage areas in southern Herkimer County. WPC has
maintained their marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall
to the northwest of the Capital District through tonight.

Coverage of rain and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours
increases tomorrow afternoon, mainly from the Capital District
south and east in western New England, the mid-Hudson Valley and
the eastern Catskills which will remain in the highly moist and
warm/buoyant sector ahead of the boundary. We and neighboring
WFOs collaborated with WPC to have the excessive rainfall
outlook upgraded in this area to a slight risk (level 2 of 4)
for Monday. We continue to monitor the potential for isolated to
scattered flash flooding, given increased potential for storms
to train or persist over a given area resulting in higher
rainfall rates reaching 1-2" per hour (locally higher even up to
3" not ruled out). The greatest flooding risk once again will
be for the more urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas
through Monday evening.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Monday for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale/Frugis
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Main/Speciale