Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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226 FXUS61 KALY 141956 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 356 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will track through the region this evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms to areas mainly south and east of the Capital District, some of which could be strong to severe. High pressure will then build across the region through the weekend, bringing fair weather and seasonable temperatures. Hot and humid weather arrives for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT, leading edge of drier low level air now extending from SW VT to areas just S/E of the Capital Region into the NE Catskills. A cumulus cloud field has developed along this leading edge, with additional isolated to scattered convection possible through this afternoon for areas S and E of this boundary. MU CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg have developed ahead of this boundary, along with with 0-6 KM Effective Shear of 30-40 KT per latest SPC Mesoanalysis. So, this area, south/east of Albany extending into the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and Berkshires will remain where the greatest threat for few potential instances of severe thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening, mainly for strong/damaging wind gusts. Cluster of showers/storms across eastern PA may graze far southern Ulster/Dutchess and Litchfield Counties after 5 PM this evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms, especially close to the I-84 corridor. Additional isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop across the southern Adirondacks later this afternoon, closer to the actual cold front, and proximate to colder air aloft. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates SB CAPES of 500-1000 J/kg in this area, so some low topped convection will be possible in this area, perhaps extending as far south and east as the Lake George region early this evening. Max temps have spiked into the lower/mid 80s across portions of the Capital Region and upper Hudson Valley, with mainly mid 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. For tonight, showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires and Litchfield County, CT, with some lighter showers possibly expanding as far north as southern portions of the Capital Region and central Berkshires. Showers/thunderstorms should decrease from NW to SE after midnight as shortwave passes by and cold front shifts farther south and east of region. Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning, especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs, otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning, especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in the 70s. Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the 40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon, otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s. Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly likely for much of next week... Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper 80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak front possibly approaches from the north. Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes nearby. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Leading edge of drier air will sink south and east of KALB through this afternoon. Ahead of this, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible and affect KPSF and KPOU through this evening. Heaviest downpours may produce MVFR/IFR Vsbys. Little if any showers are expected at KALB and KGFL through this afternoon. Main cold front will sink southward across the region tonight, with isolated showers possible. Coverage of showers looks to remain limited outside of KPOU and KPSF, so no mention of showers at KGFL and KALB. Some patchy fog could form in areas where rainfall occurs this afternoon and before the cold front passes through, so can not rule out a period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys at KPSF and KPOU overnight. VFR conditions will then prevail Saturday. South to southeast winds will shift into the west/southwest at KGFL and KALB this afternoon at 5-10 KT with some gusts up to 20 KT possible. Winds will remain south to southwest at 5-10 KT at KPSF and KPOU. For tonight, winds will shift into the west/northwest at 5-10 KT, then into the north to northeast after midnight at similar speeds. North to northeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT after sunrise with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially at KGFL through around noontime. North to northeast winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL