Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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261 FXUS61 KALY 130526 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 126 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer temperatures return today with dry conditions anticipated as high pressure dominates the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into tonight ahead of an upper- level disturbance and cold front that will track through the region tomorrow. Additional showers and thunderstorms, some potentially becoming severe, are anticipated across much of the region tomorrow along and ahead of the front. Dry, seasonable weather then returns for the weekend before Summer-like heat can be expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 125 AM EDT...Clear skies prevail across eastern New York and western New England this morning. As such, temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s to low/mid 50s with pockets of low 40s at higher elevations. GOES-16 Night Fog indicates some light fog development in lower-lying areas of the SW Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills, so added patches of fog to the weather forecast to account for this and the anticipation of additional development in sheltered areas throughout the night. Other than minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover to match recent obs and trends, the forecast remains in good shape. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... As of 1007 PM EDT...IR satellite imagery shows that the widespread clouds that were over the region today have broken up thanks to the loss of daytime heating and drier air making its way into the area. Skies are now fairly clear and with high pressure building into the area, the expectation is for clear skies to continue through much of the overnight hours, along with light to calm winds. With the good radiational cooling, some patchy fog may develop in sheltered areas, but this doesn`t look too widespread. Otherwise, quiet weather continues with lows falling back into the mid-40s to mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak upper-level ridging will be in place on Thursday with surface high pressure located to our south and east. This will result in a southerly low-level flow advecting in a warmer air mass. 850 hPa temperatures will rise to around +15C. Partly to mostly sunny conditions will result in highs rising into the 80s in the valleys and the mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations. An upper-level trough and surface cold front will begin to approach the region starting Thursday night with a prefrontal trough axis head of the cold front. A few showers and rumbles of thunder are possible for areas north and west of Albany late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front on Friday. A general consensus is that areas just to the south and east of Albany will be most favored for some strong to severe thunderstorms with the cold front already crossing areas farther north and west by the midday hours. SBCAPE values may be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range in the warm sector along with 40-50 kt of 0-6km shear. This could support some organized convection capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms is located across areas south and east of Albany on the Day 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Precipitable water values approaching 1.50 inches could also lead to locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will vary across the region due in part to the passage of the cold front with values ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 80s across the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern CT. Storms will depart the region Friday evening with just a few lingering light rain showers into the overnight. Humidity levels will begin to fall behind the front. Lows will drop back into the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A beautiful weekend is in store as Canadian high pressure builds across the region. This will result in mostly clear weather with near seasonable highs and low humidity. Thereafter, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the region and bring very warm to hot and humid weather. There remains some uncertainty with the strength and location of the ridge, but the potential for a period of highs in the 90s in the valleys and mid to upper 80s across the higher elevations is increasing. 500 hPa height anomalies could reach +2 STDEV. The increase in humidity will result in potentially dangerous feels- like temperatures over 100 degrees. There is the possibility for an upper level shortwave or two to track up and over the ridge and bring the potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms each day Monday through Wednesday but the timing and track of these remain uncertain. For now, will keep PoPs in the slight chance to low chance range. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure in control of the weather. Light winds and a mostly clear sky is allowing for radiational cooling and some saturation at the surface. Some MIFG expected at KALB and KPOU between about 08Z- 12Z. Some intervals of IFR visibilities at KGFL and MVFR visibilities at KPSF through about 12Z. Once the fog lifts, just some intervals of thin high clouds through much of the day and a few to scattered clouds between 3500-9000 feet late this morning through this evening. High clouds will thicken through the evening as well. Calm winds through mid morning, will become south to southwest at 10 Kt or less mid morning, continuing through the afternoon and evening. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Frugis