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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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514 FXUS61 KALY 031945 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 345 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather continues through today before a weak cold front brings increased humidity and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Independence Day. Another warm front will see seasonably hot and humid conditions return Friday with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A warm front lifting across the region brought enhanced clouds earlier today, but skies have largely cleared this afternoon aside from some diurnal cumulus over areas of higher terrain and a few bands of mid to high level clouds dissipating as they exit eastward into New England. Surface high pressure located to the southeast has resulted in gusty south winds, particularly along the Hudson Valley and at higher elevations, where gusts may reach 20-30 mph. Southwesterly mid-level flow will push 850-hPa temperatures to nearly 15C today, allowing afternoon highs to rise a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, into the mid to upper 70s in high terrain and low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Surface dewpoints largely in the 50s across the region will make for another pleasant-feeling early summer day. A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will approach the region this evening and track to the southeast across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. As showers approach the western Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks this evening, there may be enough remaining diurnal instability to support isolated thunderstorms, but convection will decrease as the shower activity moves away from upper-level forcing and into an increasingly stable nocturnal airmass. Rain showers will otherwise extend south and east through the morning. Overnight lows will remain very mild in the 60s west of the Hudson due to the enhanced humidity and cloud cover, while slightly cooler conditions in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected in western New England. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will continue to sag to the south and east across the region through Independence Day. Isolated to scattered showers will continue through the morning, while resurgent diurnal instability of up to 500 J/kg will support a threat for isolated thunderstorms, particularly from Albany south, into the evening. Limited shear should prevent thunderstorms from becoming severe, however abundant moisture will allow any storm to produce a brief, heavy downpour. As such, a shower or isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for any evening festivities. North of I-90, conditions will be drier. Another day of typical summer-like temperatures is expected with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and 80 at lower elevations. Surface dewpoints rising into the 60s to near 70 degrees may make for a muggy evening, with heat indices reaching around 90 degrees along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. The front will begin to stall near or just south of the region tonight into Friday, bringing continued mild and muggy overnight conditions. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s in high terrain, but remain in the mid to upper 60s at lower elevations. A deepening surface low tracking northeastward over the Great Lakes will lift the frontal boundary back across the region Friday into Friday night, yielding additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm to hot, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid 80s to around 90 degrees at lower elevations. Elevated humidity will allow heat indices to rise into the low 90s within hotter valley locales. Mild and muggy conditions continue overnight with lows in the low 60s to low 70s across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave and associated frontal system centered over the Great Lakes will track into southern Quebec while its trailing cold front approaches the local region from the west. Within the warm sector, a warm to hot airmass with elevated humidity will persist over the region while also supporting modest instability. Temperatures will remain above normal, reaching afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations, with muggy dewpoints in the 60s to 70s across the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the afternoon, while there remains uncertainty in the potential for severe storms at this lead time. The cold frontal passage will fail to bring much in the way of cooling, although dewpoints will decrease into the 50s and 60s by Sunday. Overnight conditions remain mild and muggy each of Sunday night through Tuesday nights, with temperatures stuck in the upper 50s to near 70s degrees across the region. Sunday will see slightly cooler temperatures, as afternoon highs fall to the upper 60s to mid 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to near 90 degrees at lower elevations, but temperatures will rebound back into the mid 70s to low 90s across the region Monday through Wednesday afternoons. Surface high pressure developing beneath the upstream flank of the upper ridge will allow for drier weather Sunday and Monday, while another upper shortwave drops south over the Great Lakes late in the period. This next frontal system looks to track into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the next chances for widespread precipitation to the region. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Thru 18Z THU...A warm front will bring increasing and lowering clouds late this afternoon into tonight. Conditions should stay VFR prior to 12Z/THU. Mid and high clouds will increase tonight and lower. Expect bases to be 6-10 kft AGL between 08Z-12Z/THU with a few light showers approaching. We placed VCSH groups or PROB30s in for all the TAF sites especially for KALB 08Z-12Z/THU and PSF for 13Z-17Z/THU. Some reduction to high MVFR cigs are possible with cigs 2-3 kft AGL. Some light showers or spotty drizzle may linger in the morning. The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 KT this afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT especially at KALB/KPSF. The winds will continue from the south at 5-10 KT tonight through tomorrow morning. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Wasula