956
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
136 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly start to our Friday, high pressure will give us
a sunny and comfortable end to the work week. Winds turn gusty
for Saturday with areas of rain tracking slowly from northwest
to southeast through the day. Rain turns moderate to potentially
heavy at times Saturday night with additional rain and
thunderstorms for Sunday as a cold front pushes through the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Clear and calm conditions tonight is supporting ideal radiational
cooling. A very dry air mass is in place with the 00 UTC ALY
sounding PWATs at only 0.47" which has yielded very low dew
points in the 40s. Such low dew points are giving temperatures
the opportunity to become quite chilly for late June standards.
We adjusted temperatures a bit to better match current
conditions but overall forecast is on track with morning lows
dropping into the 40s to low 50s throughout eastern NY and
western New England. A few upper 30s expected in the southern
Adirondacks. We checked June 28 record lows and ALB and POU look
out of reach but GFL will be close. Its record low is 40
degrees from 1970 and our forecast is for 43.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the area on Friday
morning and will be sliding eastward through the day. Aloft, our
area will be under the influence of fairly zonal flow. Skies
will be clear through most of the day on Friday, with just some
thin cirrus by late in the day. Temps will be comfortable, with
highs mainly in the 70s and dewpoints very low in the 50s.
Clouds will be increasing on Friday night as the next system
approaches, but it should be dry with lows in the mid to upper
50s.

On Saturday, a warm front will be located southwest of the area
over the northern mid Atlantic States and will be gradually
lifting northeast towards the area, thanks to warm advection
from a southwesterly low level jet. Although the day will start
off dry on Saturday, there will be an increased threat for
showers and embedded t-storms by late Saturday, especially for
western areas. Model soundings suggest instability will be
fairly limited on Saturday and most guidance shows under 1000
J/kg of SBCAPE on Saturday. However, strong dynamics moving
towards the are will allow for increasing shear, with 0-6 km
bulk shear approaching 40 kts. Although the best severe threat
looks well southwest of the area, some isolated severe gusty
winds can`t be ruled out for late Saturday into Saturday evening
across western areas. SPC has these areas in a marginal risk for
severe t-storms. Temps will be in the 70s on Saturday, with
dewpoints creeping back up into the 60s.

For late Saturday evening into Saturday night, there looks to be
more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region, as
our area tries to get into the warm sector ahead of the
approaching frontal system and a surface trough is in place.
PWATs look very high, with values over 2.00 inches. Although
instability still looks limited, high PWATs, high FZL levels and
good precip efficiency make allow for some heavy downpours and
high rainfall amounts within shower and t-storms. There will be
a threat for localized flooding, especially in urban or low
lying areas, from any showers and t-storms, especially for
locations that see repeated downpours. It will remain mild and
muggy into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The surface cold front will be passing through the area on
Sunday. There could be some additional showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the front on Sunday, although the timing doesn`t look
favorable for any stronger storms, as the front may cross early
in the day. It should get fairly warm on Sunday, with blended
guidance showing highs well into the 80s along with fairly
humid conditions, although dewpoints may start to fall late
behind the departing front.

Drier and more seasonable weather is expected for much of the
upcoming week. At this point, the forecast looks fairly dry with
little precip. A weak system could allow for some brief showers
towards the mid to latter portion of the week, but the threat
for stronger storms look lower than what we`ve seen in recent
days. Temps will start out seasonable in the upper 70s to low
80s to start the week, but will be creeping higher and above
normal by the late week, with dewpoints getting towards muggy
levels towards the 4th of July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sat...mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period with just occasional patchy high/mid level clouds. There is a
slight chance some patchy ground fog could briefly develop at KGFL
between 09Z-11Z/Fri, but overall chances seem quite low given the
dry air mass in place.

North to northwest winds should remain less than 5 KT through
daybreak, with north to northeast winds 5-10 KT developing shortly
after sunrise, shifting into the east to southeast at similar speeds
this afternoon. Winds will become light/variable around/shortly
after sunset.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...KL