019
FXUS64 KAMA 141931
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
231 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Our active synoptic pattern continues as a trough moves across
the central CONUS and the high pressure center at the H500 level
transitions eastward. More perturbations will exit lee side of
the Rocky Mountains and move in from the northwest generating
additional chances for thunderstorms heading into the weekend.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the 90`s; and
with excellent moisture retention, humidity should generally be
on the higher side through the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will
also continue, especially for our northern zones, through the
short term period. In the afternoon each day, sufficient
instability and shear will be present for storms to become severe.
Damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and some hail will continue
to be the primary hazards. Places that have already received much
rainfall over these past few days may begin or continue to see
flooding risks.

Today, showers and thunderstorms are diminishing from our morning
convection. A new shortwave trough will move through from the
northwest and clusters of storms will enter the CWA later this
evening. Cold pools and early outflow from our previous convection
have a chance to hinder our severe potential. However, showers
should still occur given our favorable Theta-E profiles
positioned in the western CWA. After sunset, thunderstorm
endeavors should should taper off but showers can persist
overnight and into the morning hours.

Saturday, a new southwest oriented trough will impact the
combined Panhandles but coverage may be more limited unless
today`s setup under performs. And with this more traditional
spring time regime progged from our mesoscale features,
thunderstorm timing will be a bit earlier in the afternoon and
evening.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mostly dry conditions are expected to start the long term forecast
period. Latest 14/12Z model and numerical data shows a pronounced
sinusoidal synoptic pattern across the entire CONUS. Focusing on
the southern High Plains, H500 SW flow will help with LL
subsidence and keep the Panhandles mostly dry. By mid week next
week, as the main H500 anti-cyclonic feature over the eastern
2/3 CONUS expands back to the west, perturbations in the mid
levels should help to generate showers and thunderstorms. These
perturbations should allow very good low to mid level moisture
transport from the Gulf to reach the Panhandles. Better rain
chances return from mid week next week to the end of the forecast
period. Some storms could be strong, and with repeated rounds of
low level moisture with PWAT values in the 99th percentile for
June standards, we will have to watch the potential for flooding
during this time period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

TAFs are conditionally VFR through the new 18Z period.
Thunderstorms are possible at all TAF sites later this evening and
through the night time hours. Some storms could be severe, and
heavy rainfall will drop ceilings and visibility to MVFR,
possibly IFR if a persistent core can move directly over a
terminal. Later in the morning, some rouge shower activity could
persist in the vicinity of the terminals, but few impacts are
expected at this time. Winds speeds at the surface will increase
later on tomorrow afternoon from the south.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  91  66  93 /  70  30  30   0
Beaver OK                  67  92  67  98 /  30  30  20  10
Boise City OK              60  92  63  98 /  90  20  10  10
Borger TX                  69  95  68  98 /  60  30  20   0
Boys Ranch TX              64  92  66  97 /  80  20  20   0
Canyon TX                  64  90  64  93 /  70  30  30   0
Clarendon TX               67  90  66  91 /  20  20  20   0
Dalhart TX                 60  90  62  97 /  90  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  63  92  65  97 /  70  30  10  10
Hereford TX                65  92  66  95 /  80  30  20   0
Lipscomb TX                68  93  69  97 /  20  30  20   0
Pampa TX                   67  89  66  93 /  40  30  20   0
Shamrock TX                68  93  69  94 /  10  20  20   0
Wellington TX              69  94  71  94 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55