Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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970 FXUS64 KAMA 270904 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Northwest flow will shift more westerly today. Hot temperatures will still continue, but there will be a little pullback as highs for most areas will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. That being said, high dewpoints will still lead to potential heat index values that will push the low 100s across the south and east. Palo Duro Canyon still has the potential to hit 105-108 today, and the potential for mid 70 dewpoints in Collingsworth county supports the potential for a 105 heat index. Given the more westerly flow the chances for storms will preside along and north of the I-40 corridor, with the best chances in the northern TX Panhandle as well as the OK Panhandle. While this continues to be a typical summertime convective pattern, high PWAT`s, warm temperatures aloft, good wind producers, we do have a decent 700mb shortwave as well as a little bit of an enhanced jet along that flow. Given the surface winds out of the south to southeast, and pretty good turning from the surface to 700mb we could see an isolated supercell or two, and the higher dewpoints would support lower LCL`s as well as higher CAPE values. So the northeast has a decent chance for a severe storm or two, if we can remain uncapped. Some high res models are struggling to convect given the decent cap. Additionally, if we can get that isolated supercell in the favorable environment, we can`t rule out an isolated tornado. Friday the high will expand a bit to the east, and while we will still mostly be in a westerly flow, there will be a slight southwest component, and warmer temperatures will return. Also a lee surface low is expected to move across the Panhandles and that would help push those higher dewpoints to the east, and reduce/remove the heat index threat. Still, highs could hit 105 in some areas and we could be looking at more heat products. Pops not as favorable on Friday with that drier push, but the northeast still might have a chance at some evening storms. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Upper level high will gradually expand east over the lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend and into early next week. Possible afternoon showers and storms along the northern and western Panhandles as this transition occurs through Tuesday. By Tuesday the position of the high will be far enough east to really pull up that monsoonal flow and bring a good chance of widespread showers and storms across all the Panhandles. Temperatures will still be pretty hot with highs in the 90s to lower 100s. Right now Tuesday looks to be the hottest day with widespread 100s in the forecast. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Possible VCTS/TS at KAMA in the next 1 to 3 hours as there are some back building showers, but for now will deal with that site via amendments. There is the possibility of some low clouds in the 10-15z time period, but again cig/vis restriction confidence not high enough, but MVFR fuel alternate possible with a lower confidence in IFR conditions. From 21z onward, the main focus would be KDHT and KGUY as there`s a chance we could have another round of storms impact the terminals. But that will be noted as we get closer to the 18/00z TAF package, unless confidence increases. Winds will be light and variable overnight, with breezy winds out of the south southwest picking up after 15z. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 97 77 102 73 / 10 20 10 10 Beaver OK 96 75 102 69 / 30 30 0 40 Boise City OK 94 68 97 65 / 40 30 10 20 Borger TX 101 80 107 76 / 10 20 10 20 Boys Ranch TX 99 75 104 71 / 20 20 0 10 Canyon TX 96 75 100 73 / 10 10 0 10 Clarendon TX 96 76 102 76 / 10 10 0 10 Dalhart TX 96 71 101 67 / 30 20 10 10 Guymon OK 95 72 101 67 / 30 30 10 30 Hereford TX 99 75 103 73 / 10 10 0 10 Lipscomb TX 96 77 105 73 / 20 20 0 30 Pampa TX 97 76 102 73 / 10 20 0 20 Shamrock TX 99 77 105 77 / 10 10 0 10 Wellington TX 102 78 105 79 / 10 10 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89