Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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933 FXUS63 KAPX 251733 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 133 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - No impactful weather expected throughout the entirety of the long term forecast period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1132 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Leftover showers/drizzle now exiting to the east. Clearing is moving on-shore off of Lakes Michigan and Lake Superior. The clearing trend should continue into early afternoon. However, lingering cooler air aloft/moisture will allow for some cu development through mid-afternoon. Winds generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts. Highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Showers and isold thunder ending today... High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of non-severe thunderstorms today across NE Lower Michigan. Closed surface low continues to slowly lift northward thru Lower Michigan early this morning...as a closed upper low pivots thru the Mid Mississippi Valley on the back side of the surface system. Scattered to numerous showers continue to impact much of our CWA as this system rides thru our area. Thunder has been hard to come by throughout the night due to limited instability and weak wind fields to aid in convective organization...but a few isold storms have recently developed across portions of far NE Lower Michigan where slightly better instability resides (i.e. MUCAPES nearing 50 J/kg). Surface low center will lift thru Lake Huron this morning...thru SE Ontario this afternoon and into far Western Quebec tonight. Closed upper level low will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours...as a sharp northern stream upper level trough axis slides thru Ontario and Lake Superior right behind the closed surface low. Scattered/numerous showers will gradually diminish this morning and eventually come to an end from west to east this afternoon as this complex system pushes east of Michigan. A few non- severe thunderstorms will remain possible across NE Lower Michigan into early afternoon...again will slightly better instability remains. High temps this afternoon will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will clear from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as high pressure and drier air build into the Western Great Lakes in the wake of the departing system. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid to upper 40s across most of our CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: -No impactful weather expected throughout the entirety of the long term forecast period: Not much has changed since yesterdays long term discussion. Midlevel ridging currently building over the rockies will progress eastward and settle over the midwest for the majority of the forecast period. This pattern supports surface high pressure, resulting in quiet conditions through the remainder of the week. Southern stream flow influencing the Great Lakes region will allow temperatures climb above average for late September as highs will climb to the mid 70s this Thursday through Monday with even a few of the typically warmer areas of the CWA hitting 80 degrees this weekend. Chances of precipitation return early next week as midlevel low pressure over the Tennessee Valley potentially advects northward. Details continue to remain a bit foggy as clusters still struggle to find an exact solution as tropical moisture combines with aformentioned low pressure. Chances of PoPs along with messaging will remain low at this time. Most likely solution will be most moisture remaining in the Appalachian region while only a few scattered showers reach the CWA around the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 High pressure and associated drier air will build into the region through the taf period. In the meantime, lingering isolated MVFR cigs/gusty winds through mid-afternoon (mainly at APN). VFR condtions expected tonight into Thursday with light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJS SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...AJS