218
AXNT20 KNHC 052311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 21.2N 89.2W at 05/2100 UTC
or 30 nm ESE of Progreso Mexico, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 15 ft, highest seas
being over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SE Gulf
S of 26N between 86W and 91W. Re-intensification is expected once
the center moves back over the Gulf of Mexico, and Beryl is
forecast to regain hurricane status on Sunday. Large swells
generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast
of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells
are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast
of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for detailed information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, based on
model diagnostics, current satellite imagery, and observations.
The wave has its with axis along 20W from 08N-20N. There is no
significant convection at this time with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to
21N with axis near 43W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted over the southern half of the wave environment.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending S of 20N
with axis near 77W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 19N between 70W
and 82W. Fresh E to SE winds and seas to 7 ft are in the vicinity
of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 07N58W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave,
no convection is present at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
T.S. Beryl, located over the Yucatan peninsula.

Except for the Yucatan Channel the SE Gulf of Mexico W of 85W,
and the eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle variable winds
and slight to moderate are across the remainder basin being
supported by a weak ridge covering the northern half of the
region. The ridge is anchored by 1015 mb center of high pressure,
analyzed near 28N93W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 22.0N 91.0W
Sat morning, 23.2N 93.0W Sat afternoon, 24.3N 94.6W Sun morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 25.3N 95.9W Sun afternoon, 26.5N
96.8W Mon morning, and 27.8N 97.3W Mon afternoon. Beryl will
weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland to near 30.5N
97.0W Tue afternoon. There remains some uncertainty in the track
forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
T.S. Beryl, located over the northern Yucatan peninsula. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in
the central Caribbean.

Aside from Beryl, a tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh
E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas E of its axis, over the
central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also
ahead of the wave, across Jamaica adjacent waters, including
portions of the Windward Passage. Aside from the winds and seas,
this wave is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms over the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Otherwise, fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas associated with Beryl continue to
affect the far NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas,
and numerous squalls will move across the central Caribbean
tonight associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds and rough seas will then prevail across much of the
central and NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough extends from 31N61W to 27N67W to 27N74W. This
trough is also combined with a mid-to-upper level low in the
area. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails with these
features S of 30N between 55W-70W. Moderate to fresh S to SE
winds prevail between 50W and 63W.

The remainder of the subtropical a portions of the tropical Atlantic
are under the influence of the Azores High associated ridge, which
is supporting gentle to moderate E winds across the central
basin. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, fresh NE winds and rough
seas are ongoing due to a tighter pressure gradient. Otherwise, a
large outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer continue to race behind
the tropical wave over the central Atlantic and engulfs it west of
its axis as well.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
linger over this area through the weekend before dissipating. High
pressure will prevail otherwise with mainly gentle to moderate
winds, locally fresh to strong near Hispaniola at times.

$$
ERA