800
AXNT20 KNHC 281734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest AL95 Gale Warning: A low pressure system located about 1400
miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is gradually
becoming better defined. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 12N between 40W and 45W. Winds are currently
20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Showers and thunderstorms
are increasing in organization, and if these trends continue, a
tropical depression will likely form later today. This system is
expected to move westward at 15 to 20 kt and approach the
Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and Hurricane or
Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of that
region tonight or early Saturday. There is a HIGH chance of
tropical cyclone formation through the next 2 to 7 days. A gale
warning has been issued beginning Sat morning, with storm
conditions possible beginning Sun afternoon as the feature moves
into portions of the Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters zones.
Building seas will occur with increasing winds. Please read the
latest NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK at website www.hurricanes.gov
and the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/test/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in
Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest
high precipitation amounts through early next week. As the system
continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected
at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua through Sunday.
These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern Guatemala and
Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and
early next week. It is recommended that residents in the
aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from
their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical
Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 13N southward,
and moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. Some slow development of this
system is possible next week while it moves generally westward at
15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
This tropical wave has a LOW chance of development through two and
seven days.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 18N southward
through AL95 mentioned in the Special Feature section, and moving
west around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described above.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 10N to 13N between 52W and 55W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the wester tip
of Cuba southward through a broad low pressure (AL94), Honduras,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The whole system is moving westward at
around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 12N
to 22N between 80W and 85W. Recent satellite scatterometer data
indicates fresh to strong, with locally near-gale force, SE winds
across the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 80W. Seas have
built to 5-8 ft in this same area. This system has a low chance
of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next two and
seven days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then curves
southwestward across 08N24W through Invest AL95 near 09N40W to
09N42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N east of
21W. No segments of the ITCZ are evident at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf, outside of a weak
surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle SE to S
winds prevail, with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas
are noted in the Yucatn Channel, due to a western Caribbean
tropical wave.

For the forecast, winds and seas may increase over the central
and west-central Gulf tonight through Sun night as a broad area
of low pressure, with a low chance of tropical cyclone
development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve
Mon through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a gale
warning associated with Invest AL95 and on the potential for heavy
rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America.

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on a western
Caribbean Tropical Wave and the associated winds and seas in the
NW Caribbean.

Outside of the active convection, elevated seas, and high winds in
the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure in the NW
Caribbean is not expected to develop today while it moves west-
northwestward. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon
night, with the exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds over
the far western Caribbean through Sat night, and light to gentle
winds over the southwestern Caribbean. Winds and seas are expected
to increase in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun, the eastern Caribbean
Mon, then the central Caribbean Tue and Tue night as a strong
tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, moves through. Storm
conditions are possible near this feature in the Tropical N
Atlantic Sun evening, spreading westward through time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest
AL95 and its GALE WARNING.

A weak surface trough is across the central Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is from 27N to 31N between 62W and 70W. The
remainder of the Atlantic outside of the Tropical Waves and AL95
is dominated by high pressure centered north of the area. Gentle
to moderate trades are north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades
are south of 20N. From 20N to 25N east of 20W, fresh to strong NE
winds are noted near the African coast. Seas are 4-7 ft in open
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
produce gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas NE of the
Bahamas. Winds and seas may begin to increase over the far
southeastern waters late Sat through Mon in advance of a strong
tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, that is expected to
track in a general westward motion into the Caribbean Sea Mon
through Tue night.

$$
Mahoney