617
AXNT20 KNHC 262241
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America:
Satellite imagery reveals the forming broad cyclonic circulation
associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America.
Latest computer model guidance that there will be large
precipitation amounts in the coming days with the CAG. Satellite
imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over Belize, and
over some sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. The period of heavy
rainfall in Panama and Costa Rica is expected through Fri,
shifting northward through Honduras and Nicaragua Fri into the
weekend, and for Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico late this
weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in
the areas to be affected refer to products from their local or
national meteorological weather services for the latest
information on this upcoming heavy rainfall.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave (Invest AL95) has its axis
along 31N from 03N to 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Weak low
pressure has formed near where this wave intersects the monsoon
trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
along and W of the wave axis to 45W, from 06N to 10N, and the wave
is encompassed in a region of deep tropical moisture. Some
tropical development is possible during the next several days, and
a tropical depression could form over the tropical Atlantic by
the end of the week or this weekend while the system continues
moving W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from 05N
to 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 056N to 10N between 44W and 48W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W from
Jamaica to western Colombia. It is moving westward at about 20
kt. The wave is surrounded by a very moist and unstable
atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 120 nm west of the wave from 14N to 18N. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 14N to
18N. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds along with seas to 8
ft trail the wave to near 70W. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for some gradual tropical development in a
couple of days over the western Caribbean Sea or over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from along the coast of
southern Senegal southwestward to 10N22W to 08N36W ,where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N45W. It resumes from
08N49W, then continues to 07N57W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 11W and 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered in the SE Gulf is leading to gentle
mainly S winds over the basin. Convection previously over the SW
Gulf of Mexico has dissipated this afternoon. Seas in the Gulf of
Mexico are 3 ft or less, highest in the NW basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight
seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the
basin. Looking ahead, wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf
Fri night through Sun night as a strong tropical wave, with some
potential of tropical cyclone development, reaches the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a fast
moving wave in the western Caribbean.  Otherwise, a moderate
pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressures in the central and western Caribbean
and in northern Colombia is maintaining moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas across the much of the basin. The
convection in the basin is associated with the aforementioned
tropical wave.

For the forecast, environmental conditions surrounding a tropical
wave in the western Caribbean Sea could become more conducive for
some gradual development in a couple of days. As the wave moves W
of area by Fri, expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Sun
night, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the SW
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas. This
trough is related to a broad area of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection N of 26N between 69W and 79W. Farther
east, an upper level trough is inducing divergence aloft,
supporting numerous moderate to scattered strong convection N of
26N between 60W and 69W. The remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic remains under the influence of the Azores High, which is
supporting mainly moderate NE to E winds across the region. Seas
are mainly in the moderate range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores High will remain in
control of the weather pattern across the region during the
forecast period producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow with moderate seas NE of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, winds
and seas may increase over the SE waters late Sat through Mon as a
strong tropical wave, with some potential of tropical cyclone
formation, approaches from the east.

$$
Konarik