328
AXNT20 KNHC 260559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Rainy Pattern for Southern Mexico and Central America:
Latest computer model outputs suggest the formation of another
Central American Gyre (CAG) for the next several days. Residents
in these regions need to stay informed with the latest information
from their local weather offices.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 27W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 5 to
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N
between 23W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 19N southward,
and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 33W and 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from the near the
eastern tip of Hispaniola southward across western Venezuela. It
is moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen at the central Caribbean and over
northern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, from near the
Providencia and Santa Catalina Islands southward western Panama
into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring across the
Caribbean waters near Panama. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found near the Nicaragua coast and
aforementioned islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of southern
Senegal, then curves southwestward through 10N23W to 08N41W. An
ITCZ extends westward from 07N46W to near Georgetown, Guyana.
Scattered moderate convection is evident near the trough from 08N
to 11N between 20W and 23W, and up to 90 nm along either side of
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough across central Florida is triggering scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the west coast of Florida.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from the
Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate
SE to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are found at the north-
central and western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
Fri, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the
eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking
ahead, wind and seas may increase over the southwestern Gulf
during this weekend as a strong tropical wave, with slight
potential of tropical cyclone development reaches the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Cayman Islands and the Gulf of Honduras. Refer
to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin.
A moderate pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near
24N70W and lower pressure over northern Colombia is creating
moderate to fresh ENE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
across the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to
ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will
accompany the aforementioned tropical wave across the eastern and
central basin through Thu. By this weekend, environmental
conditions at the western basin could become more conducive for
this wave to gradually develop. Therefore, winds and seas could
further increase across the northwestern basin late this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low to mid-level trough is coupling with divergent winds aloft
to produce numerous moderate convection northeast of the Bahamas
from 24N to 30N between 64W and 73W. Refer to the Tropical Waves
and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a
1027 mb high at the north-central Atlantic across 31N53W to near
the southeast Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to
moderate ENE to SSE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between
25W and Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate
to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 18N
between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. Farther south near the
Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft are present from 10N to 18N/20N between the central
Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh
ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are evident. Gentle to
moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the broad surface ridge will
dominate the area through this weekend, producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas east of 75W and
northeast of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas will prevail due to the presence of a surface trough
east of Florida but near the northwest Bahamas.

$$

Chan