555
AXNT20 KNHC 261104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Rainy Pattern for Southern Mexico and Central America:
Latest computer model outputs suggest the formation of another
Central American Gyre (CAG) today through early next week. The
system is expected to affect Panama and Costa Rica from Wed
through Fri, northern Central America from Fri through Sun, and
southern Mexico from Fri into Mon. Residents in these regions
need to stay informed with the latest information from their local
weather offices.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N
with axis near 28W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 23W and 36W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
19N with axis near 45W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 36W
and 50W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis S
of 17N near 71W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 13N to 19N between 67W and 77W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 16N with axis near 82W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is S of 17N W of 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of southern
Senegal, then curves southwestward through 10N23W to 08N40W. The ITCZ
extends westward from 08N40W to 08N44W, then resumes from 07N46W
to 07N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 08N
between 08W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
05N to 10N W of 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Currently, there is a weak pressure gradient in the basin due to
low pressures along Florida and Mexico. This is supporting mainly
light to gentle variable winds and slight seas across the gulf. A
surface trough of Veracruz is generating scattered showers and
isolated tstms over the Bay of Campeche, suporting locally
moderate winds in that region.

For the forecast, surface ridging will build and dominate the
Gulf waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and
slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half
of the basin. Looking ahead, wind and seas may increase over the
SW Gulf during the upcoming weekend as a strong tropical wave,
with some potential of tropical cyclone development reaches the
area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean
with axis near 71W, producing limited shower activity as it moves
quickly westward at around 20-22 kt. A moderate pressure gradient
between the Atlantic Ridge and lower pressure associated with the
wave and over northern Colombia is creating moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate seas across the eastern and SW Caribbean. Over
the central basin, the passage of the wave is supporting fresh to
strong winds S of Hispaniola along with rough seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, environmental conditions could become more
conducive for some gradual development of the tropical wave late
this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the SW Gulf of
Mexico during the weekend. Regardless of development, fresh to
strong winds and moderate to rough seas will accompany this wave
as it continues its westward track across the central and western
Caribbean through Fri night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
forecast elsewhere Fri through Sun night, except for light to
gentle winds over the SW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and tstms are ongoing over the offshore waters E
of the Bahamas as well as across the northern Bahamas. Earlier
scatterometer data showed gusty winds to gale force winds in the
region of strongest tstms. Other than this broad area of
convection, the remainder subtropical Atlantic remains under the
inlfuence of the Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate
NE to E winds across the eastern and central portions of the
subtropical waters, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the
western portion of the region. Seas are mainly moderate across the
entire subtropics. Over the tropical waters, trades are mainly
moderate between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
dominate the area during the forecast period producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas E of 75W and NE of
the Bahamas. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the ridge
and a surface trough N of 27N between 65W and 75W will support
fresh to locally strong S to SW winds from this evening through
Thu evening.

$$
Ramos