027
AXNT20 KNHC 241002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered near 18.9N 83.0W at
24/0900 UTC or 100 nm WSW of Grand Cayman, moving NW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in an
area from 17N to 21N between 79W and 84W. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 22N between 77W
and 85W. Nine is expected to become a tropical depression today,
then strengthen into a tropical storm tonight. Additional
strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Nine is
likely to become a hurricane Wednesday. Nine may become a major
hurricane Thursday, before landfall Thursday night in Florida.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands,
with isolated amounts in excess of 12 inches. Over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
localized amounts over 6 inches. These rainfall amounts bring a
risk of considerable flooding. For the southeastern U.S. rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are forecast, with some totals over
10 inches possible. This will likely result in locally significant
flash and urban flooding, with river flooding also possible. The
combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. It is recommended that residents
in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest information
from their local meteorological agencies. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26N south of 19N, now
moving W of the Cabo Verde Islands at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection has increased and become a
bit more concentrated overnight from 12N to 17N between 22N and
27W. Fresh to locally strong E winds accompany this wave, with
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while the wave moves W to WNW across
the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance
of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance of
formation within the next seven days.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 17N,
moving W at around 10 kt. A broad area of scattered, disorganized,
moderate convection associated with this wave extends from 09N to
17N between 44W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W, then curves
southwestward to near 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to
09N46W. Convection in the vicinity of these features is primarily
associated with the two tropical waves described in the section
above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Moderate E winds are gradually
increasing in the far SE Gulf of Mexico, including the Florida
Straits and Yucatan Channel, in association with Nine.

Weak high pressure of 1013 mb offshore the Florida Panhandle is
dominating the rest of the basin, supporting light to gentle
mainly E winds and slight seas. A surface trough that moved W off
the Yucatan Peninsula overnight is leading to little sensible
weather over the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move to
19.6N 84.2W this afternoon, 20.7N 85.7W Wed morning, 22.0N 86.2W
Wed afternoon, and 24.3N 85.6W Thu morning. Nine is expected to
become a large and powerful hurricane. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will shift into the area as Nine moves northward
into the eastern Gulf late this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Away from Nine, moderate to locally fresh E tradewinds and slight
to moderate seas dominate much of the basin.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move to
19.6N 84.2W this afternoon, 20.7N 85.7W Wed morning, 22.0N 86.2W
Wed afternoon, and 24.3N 85.6W Thu morning. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will continue across the W and NW Caribbean
through Wed as Nine moves through and then exits the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the tropical waves section for information on a wave in the
far eastern Atlantic that has potential for tropical development
this week.

A weak surface trough extends from 31N60W to 25N72W. Convection
associated with this trough has diminished overnight. Moderate
to fresh E to NE winds are noted across much of the Atlantic east
of 40W and north of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds prevail. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with some 6
to 8 ft seas in N swell following the surface trough between
Bermuda and the Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will
move to 19.6N 84.2W this afternoon, 20.7N 85.7W Wed morning, 22.0N
86.2W Wed afternoon, and 24.3N 85.6W Thu morning. Nine will bring
strong winds and large seas to areas offshore Florida and N of
the Bahamas late this week. Tropical storm force winds are
expected across portions of central and northeast Florida coastal
waters Thu into early Fri.

$$
Konarik