362
FXUS61 KBGM 281859
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
259 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry conditions continue today with seasonal
temperatures. The next system arrives in time for the weekend
with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and
Saturday night. Showers linger into Sunday, then as the system
makes an exit, drier air filters back in at the start of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1245 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to sky cover this afternoon and early
evening as some clouds begin to stream in over western parts of
the area. Also made some minor PoP adjustments around 12Z and
then again around 18Z tomorrow as they appeared a bit high
looking at the latest guidance around the southern Finger Lakes
area. This will continue to be examined with the next update.
Winds were increased a bit tomorrow morning into the afternoon
as well.

930 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track at this time with just a few
minor tweaks made based off the latest obs/guidance.

630 AM Update...

Cirrus clouds have burned off with the sunrise this morning.
Minor changes were made to update temperatures and dewpoints
using observations. No other changes needed at this time.

400 AM Update...

A cool start this morning, otherwise a pleasant day is in store
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s with a few
spots reaching the low 80s by afternoon. Sunny skies will
dominate most of the day as high pressure remains in control.
Clouds begin to filter back in Friday evening ahead of the next
system. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s with
pockets of mid 50s over the Western Catskills region. A first
round of showers will gradually move into the region after
midnight becoming more steady by late Saturday morning/Saturday
afternoon as the second round moves in.

Trends for tomorrow continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. A deep warm cloud layer also remains
consistent with a depth of 12-13 K ft. WPC has the entire
region in a marginal risk for flash flooding. SPC has the very
western portion of our CWA in a slight risk and the remaining
area in a marginal risk for severe. In terms of severe there is
a strong low level jet the pushes in Saturday afternoon, but
forecast soundings continue to show modest instability for
tomorrow afternoon, but plenty of shear. Instability begins to
work its way into the western portion of our CWA late tomorrow
afternoon/early evening with increasing CAPE and steep lapse
rates, so this timeframe will have to be monitored. In
conclusion the severe threat will depend on when and whether
instability will make its way east into our region. The most
likely potential hazard for our region will be localized flash
flooding especially for areas that have seen recent rainfall.
Deep southerly flow in place temperatures on Saturday warm into
the mid 70s to low 80s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...

A cold front will just be moving into the Finger Lakes on Sunday
morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely to be
ongoing across the area. The front will push east of the area by
mid-afternoon, but there`s a narrow window for a few isolated
thunderstorms to become strong to severe late in the morning
into the early afternoon hours before the front exits. The main
shortwave trough looks to lag behind the front considerably, and
this will keep the risk for a few showers behind the front into
the overnight hours.

Monday will be dry, cooler, and breezy with NW winds. Max
temperatures look to top out in the lower to middle-70s.

High pressure settling in overhead Monday night will diminish
the winds and set us up for another somewhat cool night, with
low temps dropping into the upper-40s to lower-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM Update...

High pressure sliding east of the area on Tuesday will bring
a return of SW flow and warmer temperatures reaching into the
upper-70s and lower-80s, with continued dry conditions. The dry
weather looks to continue into Wednesday, with a cold front
bringing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to the
area later Wednesday night. With the off and on wet weather
lately, Monday morning to Wed evening presents the longest dry
stretch of the week. The front pushing through Wednesday night
stalls out to our south on Thursday, and a disturbance rippling
along it will bring the chance of rain back to the area Thursday
night into Friday, with precip chances slightly favoring NEPA
and the Southern Tier.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue at all terminal sites for the rest
of this afternoon and evening. Some showers are expected to move
in around 08-09Z with ELM, ITH and SYR having the best
opportunity of seeing this activity, but showers appear light
enough that terminals are expected to stay VFR. Winds are
expected to increase beginning tonight and become more
noticeable tomorrow with most terminals expected to gust to at
least 20-25 knots. A better chance of showers begins to move in
late in the TAF period and those showers can be locally heavy so
there is the potential for reduced visibilities and ceilings,
especially after 16Z. Upstream activity is generally associated
with MVFR- Fuel Alt. conditions, so followed that trend with
this update. The risk for thunder appears low through the end of
the TAF with instability not expected to increase until late
afternoon or into the evening hours tomorrow night.

LLWS has been included for SYR toward the end of the TAF, and
despite guidance not being to aggressive with it, soundings
support the development of LLWS at the rest of the terminals
after 18Z tomorrow as well, generally between 20Z-00Z from about
1200-1600 feet AGL, so this will be monitored. Soundings also
show most terminals with about 20 to close to 30 knots of shear
during the early morning hours tomorrow several hundred feet
AGL, so this too is something to monitor.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for restrictions with
showers late for CNY terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.
LLWS possible at all terminals late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/ES
NEAR TERM...DK/ES
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...DK/ES