393
FXUS61 KBGM 281051
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry conditions continue today with seasonal
temperatures. The next system moves in time for the weekend with
periods of showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and
Saturday night. Showers linger into Sunday as the system makes
an exit, drier air filters back in at the start of the work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

630 AM Update...

Cirrus clouds have burned off with the sunrise this morning.
Minor changes were made to update temperatures and dewpoints
using observations. No other changes needed at this time.

400 AM Update...

A cool start this morning, otherwise a pleasant day is in store
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s with a few
spots reaching the low 80s by afternoon. Sunny skies will
dominate most of the day as high pressure remains in control.
Clouds begin to filter back in Friday evening ahead of the next
system. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s with
pockets of mid 50s over the Western Catskills region. A first
round of showers will gradually move into the region after
midnight becoming more steady by late Saturday morning/Saturday
afternoon as the second round moves in.

Trends for tomorrow continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. A deep warm cloud layer also remains
consistent with a depth of 12-13 K ft. WPC has the entire
region in a marginal risk for flash flooding. SPC has the very
western portion of our CWA in a slight risk and the remaining
area in a marginal risk for severe. In terms of severe there is
a strong low level jet the pushes in Saturday afternoon, but
forecast soundings continue to show modest instability for
tomorrow afternoon, but plenty of shear. Instability begins to
work its way into the western portion of our CWA late tomorrow
afternoon/early evening with increasing CAPE and steep lapse
rates, so this timeframe will have to be monitored. In
conclusion the severe threat will depend on when and whether
instability will make its way east into our region. The most
likely potential hazard for our region will be localized flash
flooding especially for areas that have seen recent rainfall.
Deep southerly flow in place temperatures on Saturday warm into
the mid 70s to low 80s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM Update

Main concerns in this period are the potential for areas of
excessive, heavy rainfall and scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms over the weekend. The highest probabilities look to be
Saturday evening, but if the front slows down issues may lingering
into Sunday as well over eastern portions of the CWA. For Day 2 (8
AM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday) WPC has the entire area under a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall and isolated flash flooding, with a
Slight Risk across Oneida County where the upslope S-SW flow into
the Tug Hill may enhance rain totals. For the same Day 2 period, SPC
has expanded the Slight Risk along and west of I-81, with a Marginal
Risk further east across the rest of the CWA. Main severe threats
will be wind and isolated tornados.

PWATs are an impressive 2.0 to 2.3" Saturday evening, with a gradual
increase in MLCAPE possible as surface dew points surge into the
upper 60s to low 70s over the region. 00z GFS BUFKIT data suggests
very favorable conditions for warm, extremely efficient rainfall
processes. This includes PWATs of 2.5 to 3 standard deviations above
normal for late June, impressive warm cloud layer depths of 13.5k
feet and a southwesterly low level jet around 35-40 kts below 850mb.
There is skinny CAPE modeled of at least several hundred J/Kg which
will aid in convective development, potentially increasing rainfall
rates. Current guidance has an area of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall and embedded t`storms over most of the area Saturday
evening, which slowly exits east by around midnight. Behind this way
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but
PWATS do drop below 1.75 inches for the second half of the
overnight. Deep layer shear is 30-45 kts in the 0-6km layer and 0-1
km shear could be upwards of 30 kts, along with impressive 0-1km SRH
values. It`s still far out in time to dive into all the details,
but SPC does have a 2-5% tornado probability outlook for most
of the area...so this will need to be watched closely Saturday
evening/night, with very low LCLs expected. Areal average
rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected Saturday night into
Sunday, with the highest totals of 2.5"+ forecast over Oneida
County. Outside of the rain and t`storms it will be very muggy
with lows in the mid-60s to lower 70s Saturday night.

As hinted at above, the latest model guidance appears to be slowing
down the frontal passage somewhat. This would allow instability to
build later Sunday morning, midday and early afternoon especially
south and east of a line from near Utica--Ithaca and Elmira. The
latest SPC day 3 outlooks keeps much of the forecast area under a
marginal risk for severe, with the Slight Risk just clipping eastern
Sullivan and Pike Counties. Overall PoPs are lower on Sunday,
expecting more in the way of scattered showers and storms. Humid in
the morning, with drier air gradually filtering in from the NW by
afternoon. It will be warm with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s
for most locations. Winds turn west-northwest a 8-15 mph, so
becoming  a little breezy in the afternoon.

By Sunday night, the upper level trough settles in over the area.
This will keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast over
Central NY, with partly to mostly cloudy skies areawide. Turing
cooler with winds gradually diminishing; lows dip down into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 AM Update

Quiet weather expected Monday night through Wednesday under upper
level ridging, with a corresponding surface high over the region.
This will bring dry, mostly clear/sunny weather, along with a
warming trend. Monday night starts off a bit cool, with lows in the
upper 40s to mid-50s. It warms up nicely into the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Tuesday afternoon, with low humidity. Milder Tuesday
night, then above average Wednesday afternoon (83-90F) as thicknesses
reach 576dm and temperatures aloft reach +17-18C. Can`t rule
out some late day or evening thunderstorms for the western
portion of the area on Wednesday, but the better probabilities
of thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday night as a weak front
pushes through. Early outlook for Independence Day is warm and
humid with a chance for a few thunderstorms around. Similar
conditions persist into next Friday. Highs are forecast to be
well into the 80s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected today at all terminals with high
pressure in control. Winds will be light and variable this
morning with southerly flow under 10 knots settling in this
afternoon. Wind gusts pick up tonight as the next system
approaches the region early tomorrow morning. Ceilings at the
very end of the period start to descend with MVFR conditions
possible at ELM/BGM/AVP as rain showers start to move in.
Guidance hints at periods of LLWS at ELM & SYR late in the
period, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF at this
time.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY
terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...ES