661
FXUS61 KBGM 280418
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1218 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet end to the work week is expected with seasonal temperatures.
The next system moves in this weekend with periods of rain and
thunderstorms, mainly Saturday and Saturday night. Showers linger
into Sunday with dry conditions returning early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

1230 PM Update...

Made minor changes to update temperatures and dew points with
current observations. Otherwise remaining forecast is on track
at this time.

630 PM Update...

With the evening updates, continued the mention for patchy fog
overnight. However, confidence remains low with some dry
advection this evening with dewpoints falling into the 40`s.

235 PM Update...

High pressure will remain in control through at least Friday. For
tonight, winds become light and skies eventually clear out. This
will allow for good radiational cooling, which could lead to patchy
fog or low stratus. Forecast soundings show a shallow inversion at
the surface but are then dry just above the surface and throughout
the rest of the profile. So confidence is low that fog will develop,
but maybe lingering moisture from rainfall yesterday will contribute
some. Otherwise, temperatures will fall into the 40s and low 50s.
This forecast did go slightly below guidance due to the clearing
skies, though high clouds will move in late tonight.

Friday will be pleasant with sunny skies and temps climbing into the
mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight, temps fall into the 50s and 60s. High
pressure will drift eastward, and weak shortwaves will pass through
the region ahead of the next system. Passing showers will be
possible after midnight. Coverage remains uncertain as guidance
differs on how quickly showers spread east across the region. Due to
this, this update favored a blend of HREF and NBM guidance as well
as some manual edits for PoPs during the overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

There are no significant changes with the 12Z model guidance for
this period. SPC and WPC both have the region in a marginal
risks for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. The more
likely potential hazard will be localized flash flooding. As far
as severe thunderstorms...there is a strong low level jet the
pushes in Saturday afternoon, but forecast soundings are showing
very little if any instability during the day Saturday. At this
time, the thinking is for possibly some embedded thunder among
heavy rain showers, but severe threat looks quite low.

315 AM Update...

Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early
Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into
the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud
layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy
rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash
flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be
unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit
instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday
night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Cold front will exit the region Sunday morning, but with upper
trough pushing overhead, some diurnal showers (possibly lake
enhanced) will be possible during the afternoon. Overnight
temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging
in the low to upper 50s.

Surface high pressure moves in overhead on Monday, bringing dry
and warm conditions through the first half of the week. The
pattern becomes zonal mid week with several perturbations
pushing through the flow that will bring our next rain chances
Wednesday and through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty WNW winds should lighten up over the next couple of hours
as the sun sets. Skies have cleared as high pressure moves in
from the west. The center of this high looks to settle over the
western portion of the CWA, bringing very light and variable to
calm winds for much of the region tonight. Radiational cooling
should be in full swing with this high overhead, so a few of our
terminals will have a good chance to see restrictions from fog.

ELM should see IFR to LIFR conditions after 9z as winds go calm
and temps fall fast. Rain yesterday and clouds today should
have kept the surface wet enough to generate fog tonight at the
terminal. The question is how quick will it begin. The current
temp of 72 needs to fall about 22-23 degrees, which in this
radiational cooling setup, should occur but how quick the winds
go calm will determine how fast the temp falls. Pushed back the
TEMPO to 7z with prevailing starting at 9z due to this needed
temperature fall.

BGM, ITH and RME could also see restrictions, but confidence
was not high enough to put IFR in this TAF set. Winds will
become light but given the elevations these terminals are at and
that guidance is really not showing much of a chance, TEMPO
MVFR was included in the TAFs. The picture should be much
clearer later this evening if IFR is possible.

SYR and AVP will be VFR for the entire forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY
terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/ES
NEAR TERM...BTL/ES/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...JTC