254
FXUS61 KBGM 291756
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
tonight. Showers and storms linger into Sunday as cold front
pushes through. Drier air returns Monday and lasts through
midweek under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
140 PM Update...

Rain continues to be more widespread and that has helped keep
temperatures a bit lower across NY. NEPA has been able to warm
up but the showers are moving in and will have to be watched to
see how that impacts the environment. BGM radar VWP continues to
show high low level helicity so any stronger storms that are
moving E to slightly SE have higher chances at becoming
tornadic. Despite the rain and clouds, strong southerly flow has
helped increase the theta e values through the morning so there
will be at least some CAPE developing.

930 AM update...

Temperatures and dew points were updated. Temperatures have been
running a few degrees below forecast with the thicker cloud
cover and rain. Dew points have been running a few degrees above
forecast for the same reasons. Surface observations do show a
warm front that is pushing into the NY/PA border and will have
to be watched to see if it will continue to move northward into
the afternoon. Clouds also have been thick both north and south
of the warm front but there is better chances at seeing a few
breaks of sun south that could lead to destabilization. The
vertical wind profile from KBGM radar does show a good low level
jet in place so any storms that do develop will need to be
watched as there is plenty of both directional and speed shear
for organized storms this afternoon.

245 AM Update...

Deep SW flow will increase moisture across the region today with
a strong low- level jet pushing into the area this evening and
tonight ahead of a cold front. For today, PWATs increase to near
2" by early this afternoon. Instability is weak today and
through the afternoon, so current thinking is mostly rain
showers through the day. However, later tonight as the low level
jet punches in, instability and shear increase. Main concern for
this evening and tonight is the strong low level shear and
impressive helicity. A high shear, and low instability
environment may still be enough to support a brief tornado and
strong wind gusts in a low topped convective environment.
Localized flash flooding will also be possible with high PWATs
and deep warm cloud layer, and any thunderstorms that are able
to materialize will be efficient rain makers.

Cold front enters our western counties Sunday morning and pushes
across the area. More showers and thunderstorms will be likely
depending of FROPA timing. Best chances for anything severe will
be our far east/south eastern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

Upper level trough lags behind cold front that went through the
region earlier on Sunday. This could keep a few showers going
into Sunday night with the potential for some of these showers
to be lake enhanced. Northwest flow and cooler temperatures
settle in behind the front with lows falling into the low to mid
50s across the region. Shower chances diminish by Monday
morning as drier air moves in with high pressure building over
the midwest. Temperatures will also be cooler with northwest
flow in place. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. High pressure
centers over our region on Tuesday with calm and dry conditions
continuing. Winds shift to the south allowing temperatures to
warm back up into the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows are
more mild as well with temperatures in the low to mid 60s, with
some pockets of upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 AM Update...

Upper level ridge remains in place for most of Wednesday with high
pressure sliding east keeping conditions precip free. According to
GFS & Canadian NH another system approaches the region Wednesday
night into Thursday with showers and possible thunderstorms moving
through. Euro has a different resolution with showers staying south
of our region which would be a more favorable outcome for
Independence day. Models begin to diverge for the rest of the
period, therefore relied on NBM Pops through Saturday.
Temperatures during this time frame will be warm with highs
ranging in the low to upper 80s with overnight lows in the low
to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With widespread showers through the area this afternoon, many
terminals are seeing MVFR with brief IFR conditions. Cloud cover
and heavier rain that is out there currently has reduced the
thunderstorm risk for much of the NY terminals. AVP has warmed
up and has a better chance at seeing some stronger storms that
produce IFR or worse vis from heavy rain. Tonight, it is looking
a bit drier behind the surface front that moves through this
afternoon so showers were ended faster at terminals. If we do
clear out then ELM has a chance to fog but it does not look like
the clouds will clear in time right now. Tomorrow is looking
better with all NY terminals seeing VFR conditions by 18Z. AVP
could still deal with some thunderstorms late morning into early
afternoon but kept thunder out of the TAFs given uncertainty in
progression of the front.

Outlook...


Sunday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.


Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG