Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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938 FXUS61 KBGM 042005 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 405 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid conditions last into Friday with continued risk for more thunderstorms. Saturday is now looking mainly dry, but still very warm. Sunday and Monday will be dry and mostly sunny, with continued hot temperatures. A front approaches bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 340 PM Update A weak boundary resides over the Twin Tiers at this time, aiding in some minor surface convergence. Surface dew points and low level moisture are higher across NE PA, mainly in the lower 70s...with mid-60s to upper 60s further north across the rest of Central NY. Therefore, instability is higher over NE PA with MLCAPE rising between 500-1000 J/Kg currently. Along this boundary some scattered showers and t`storms have developed; these are not moving much and should tend to remain in this general area while drifting southeast into the evening hours. It will be very warm and humid into the evening hours, with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80 around sunset. Difference in the CAMs for late evening and tonight made for a lower than usual confidence forecast. The HRRR would suggest much more numerous shower and t`storm activity overnight...meanwhile the 3km NAM is mainly dry overnight. With the differences and uncertainty decided to stick with slight chance PoPs for the overnight period. Will have to monitor upstream convective activity to see how well it progresses east-northeast late this evening/overnight. Friday will be another very warm and humid day, with dew points pushing into the upper 60s to mid-70s...with the highest surface moisture across NE PA. High temperatures reach the mid-80s to around 90...this will produce peak heat indices well into the 90s across our valley locations. It will be very close to heat advisory criteria in some of the favored urban valley location., but confidence wasn`t quite high enough as it will depend on rain chances/timing and cloud cover. By afternoon, instability increases between 1000-2000 J/Kg and deep layer shear increases between 30-40 kts. SPC has the western half of our forecast area under a Marginal risk for severe storms, with the main threat being isolated damaging winds. WPC is also indicating a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over the entire region, as PWATS remain elevated above 1.6 inches, and warm cloud layer depth is up to 13k ft agl. CAMs suggest a possible remnant MCS/MCV moving into the area which will initial more convection...exactly when and where this may track remains somewhat uncertain though at this time. A front moves in from the west Friday evening and into the overnight period. This will bring a period of rain and thunderstorms to the region once again. Additional locally heavy rainfall is possible with this convective activity. Localized rainfall totals of 1-2"+ are possible during this time. With the cloud, showers and a warm south wind...it will be very muggy with lows only in the upper 60s to mid-70s out there. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A surface low tracks north of our region on Saturday with a cold front dragging through NY & PA. Front is expected to move through early Saturday morning with model guidance hinting at lower precip chances for most of Saturday. A few isolated showers are still possible with lingering moisture behind the front. Otherwise temperatures are expected to be quite warm with southerly flow still in place. Highs will climb into the low to high 80s by afternoon with lows gradually falling into the low to mid 60s overnight. High pressure builds over the midwest expanding into our region on Sunday resulting in dry conditions. Mostly sunny skies will dominate with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear skies will continue into the overnight hours with calm winds allowing for a possible radiational cooling setup. Lows are forecasted to range in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure centers over our region Monday with a pleasant start to the week. Warm and quiet conditions will persist for one more day, with heat and humidity starting to increase on the backside of the high. By Tuesday and Wednesday our region rests on the edge of an upper level ridge with southwest flow and moisture advection. With heat and humidity in place, passing shortwaves should provide enough lift to set off showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance diverges towards the end of the period due to timing differences. Went with NBM pops showing a chance of showers as another disturbance moves through the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be warm with increasing humidity as the week progresses. Highs will range in the low to upper 80s with lows in the 60s at night. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 2 PM Update Mainly VFR expected this afternoon and evening over the region. There could still be an isolated shower or thunderstorm especially for AVP or BGM; included a PROB30 group in the tafs for these two sites between about 20z to 01z this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, showers or t`storms are not expected at this time. Tonight, high pressure builds in at the surface with largely calm winds. It looks like there will be a few showers and thunderstorms across CNY into NEPA into the overnight but they will be spotty (so not included in the tafs). With some clear skies between the showers and high surface humidity values, fog chances are rather high especially for ELM. Lower chances exist at BGM, ITH, RME and AVP that will be dependent on if any rain can fall near the airports. Generally included tempo groups for MVFR Fog/Mist, except IFR at ELM between the hours of 07-11z early Friday morning. Any fog/mist burns off by mid-morning with a likely return to VFR conditions. However, additional showers and t`storms will develop and move across the forecast area on Friday. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...AJG/MJM