940
FXUS63 KBIS 240945
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
445 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers today, gradually tapering off from west to east.

- Winds gusting to 45 mph developing portions of southwest and
  south central North Dakota including parts of the James River
  Valley today.

- Patchy frost over various parts of the area tonight.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues with rain chances over
  much of the area through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Current surface analysis places low over south central North
Dakota/north central South Dakota, with high over the
Northern/Central Rockies. Upper level analysis places low over
the western South Dakota/southwest North Dakota. Broad area of
rain showers continue over much of the area, though have been
tapering off over the far west. A few embedded thunderstorms
have also popped up from time to time. Winds continue to be
gusty on the north/west side of the low.

For today, surface low will shift northeast and deepen while
upper features start to stack up. As these slide northeast,
widespread rain showers over the area will gradually taper off
from west to east as the day goes on. Over southwest North
Dakota where winds have already shifted northwest, winds will be
on the increase this morning, while over south central North
Dakota into the James River Valley, winds will shift through the
morning, becoming northwest and increasing mid-day. Forecast
soundings for these areas continue to show some ~40-45kt winds
mixing down, so have decided to issue a wind advisory through
the day over parts of southwest North Dakota, and mid-day
through early this evening over parts of south central/James
River Valley. Temperatures will be quite chilly for this time of
year as notably cooler air wraps into the area, with portions
of north central North Dakota only seeing highs in the 40s.

As we get into this evening, a secondary wave pushes into the
area as the low lifts northeast. This will bring low chances of
showers primarily to northern portions of the area overnight,
possibly some flakes of snow to the Turtle Mountains area. With
that said, for areas that do not see precipitation and skies
remain on the clearer side, frost becomes a concern with lows
dipping well into the 30s. Will have to give this a close look
today and see which areas may need some frost headlines.

Mainly quite conditions over most locations for the day on
Saturday with temperatures recovering into the 60s, 50s far
northeast. The next wave in our active pattern passes mainly to
our south Saturday night, with a few showers possibly developing
over our southern areas. Late Saturday night into Sunday, next
more notable wave approaches and pushes into our area. This will
bring likely showers (50-70 percent) to most of our area.

More modest shower chances remain over our area on Monday as we
remain in cyclonic flow with a brief break coming Monday night
through Tuesday as an upper ridge passes over. Unsettled pattern
bringing precipitation chances returns for the second half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Widespread IFR conditions in rain showers will continue
overnight, with gradual improvement from west to east through
the day on Friday as rain showers end and skies start to clear
out.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
NDZ036-037-046>048-050-051.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ041-042-044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS