781
FXUS63 KBIS 240530
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend is expected to start Tuesday, bringing
  widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday.

- With the exception of tonight, dry conditions are expected
  through the rest of the work week going into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers have all but dissipated over western and central North
Dakota by the time of this early morning update. Cloud cover is
generally light, with a thin deck of high clouds moving over
north central North Dakota, and a lingering deck of mid level
clouds slowly moving east out of the James River Valley.
Otherwise, winds are generally light and west to northwesterly.
No updates were needed, as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 926 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The line of showers that developed behind the leading front has
continued to slowly push eastward, now positioned from Sioux
County to western Stutsman County. With the loss of heating
after sunset, lightning activity has decreased to zero. These
cells should move out of the area over the next few hours,
unless they fall apart before they exit. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers continue to push their way east through the forecast
area this evening. A small line of showers in central North
Dakota have intensified a bit, with visible imagery indicating a
more tower-like structure to the storms. A few flashes of
lightning have been observed with these storms as well. Most
short range models have not resolved these storms whatsoever, so
the main change for this forecast update was adding in some PoPs
as well as thunder with this line of storms as it moves through
the area. These are not expected to be strong whatsoever.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Current surface analysis places low over west-central Manitoba
with trough dropping down through the Dakotas. Upper level
analysis places trough passing through the Northern Plains, with
ridging over the west coast. Area of light showers affiliated
with the surface and upper level trough continue to pass trough
our area, but have been gradually diminishing on the back side.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Showers
continue to slide to the east, and are expected to exit into
eastern North Dakota this evening. The showers have been quite
light, with most reports coming in at only a few hundreths.
Skies will then clear out overnight with the departure of the
showers.

Pacific ridge then makes its way eastward over the Rockies and
into the plains by mid-week. This will result in a warming trend
along with continued quiet weather. By Thursday, most locations
should see highs in the 80s, which will be about 15 degrees
above normal. A short wave pushes through the ridge late
Thursday which may result in a bit of cooling, but right now
forecast looks to remain dry. Next chances for precipitation may
arrive late in the weekend but models are showing some
differences with a solution at this time, so chances remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds will remain generally light
and out of the west northwest through the afternoon, before
becoming very light and variable this evening through the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Besson
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Adam