238
FXUS63 KBIS 282004
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
304 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this
  evening. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible,
  mainly across central and eastern North Dakota. Hail up to
  the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
  main threat. In addition, a funnel cloud is possible.

- It will be breezy to windy today, especially in southwestern
  North Dakota where gusts of 35 to 45 are expected, highest in
  Bowman and Slope Counties.

- Severe thunderstorm potential (a Level 2 of 5 Risk) in the
  form of large hail and damaging winds returns Sunday night.

- Severe thunderstorm potential could continue for Monday,
  especially in south central and southeastern North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper level low will push across North Dakota through tonight.
Late this afternoon through this evening will see widespread
showers with a isolated to scattered thunderstorms. SPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk across central and eastern ND. These
areas could see MUCAPE up to 1000 J/KG, while shear remains
quite robust around 50 knots, although does look to diminish as
the day goes on. Hodographs are not very curved but are fairly
straight which could help hail production. Given the adequate
amounts of instability and shear decided to add mention of
quarter size hail and 60 MPH wind gusts in areas in the Marginal
Risk. Of note is a high Non Supercell Tornado Parameter
currently in MT and Canada that will advect this way. Meso
analysis also shows fair amounts of low level cape and steep low
level lapse rates in the north this afternoon into the early
evening. Thus a funnel cloud to perhaps brief landspout tornado
are possible today. The north (Highway 2 corridor and north) to
the James River Valley may have a slightly better chance of
this occurring, although will be possible most anywhere with a
Marginal Risk. This wrapped up low has also brought some breezy
winds to ND and windy conditions in Montana. As this low
progresses through these stronger winds will also push through.
Confidence in the strongest winds still remains in the Wind
Advisory area, thus no expansion at this time. Tonight,
thunderstorms will diminish although a few showers will be
possible. Low clouds will be found through the night as well
from this low. Mixing looks to be enough to prevent fog,
although perhaps some mist or drizzle is possible from these
clouds. Surface high and upper level ridge will then push across
the state on North Dakota. This will gradually erode clouds,
with cooler temperatures in the 60s expected. Winds will also
diminish, although may be breezy across the east. High moves
eastward on Sunday with southwest flow aloft and southerly flow
at the surface moving in. Warming temperatures and breezy to
windy conditions will be found. Perhaps these winds get near
advisory level as the EFI is elevated in the southwest. Severe
weather then remains possible for Sunday evening through Sunday
night as an upper level wave moves through. A strong low level
jet will also help support the severe weather potential. Kept
the hazards generic for now, although this could be more of a
wind threat with the strong shear vector along the front axis.
There still could be enough elevate cape for a hail threat as
well. Will continue to monitor and SPC currently has a Marginal
to Slight risk for this threat. This wave remains across the
area on Monday. This could bring continued unsettled weather
with near normal temperatures. SPC has a Day 4 risk outlook for
south central and southeastern ND. This is where the highest
instability is currently forecast, although much of the CWA
sees at least modest instability and decent amounts of shear.
Something to monitor going forward.

The state then looks to remain in a broad to flattened trough
pattern through much of next week. Overall this brings an
unsettle pattern with temperatures near to slightly below
normal. Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will
also be found in this pattern. THE CSU-MLP also puts almost near
daily small chances for isolated severe weather each day. This
far out it is tough to pinpoint timing and location, yet those
with outdoor plans for next week will want to keep an eye on the
latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will give way to chances for showers and
thunderstorms and possible MVFR conditions through this
evening. Breezy to windy northwest winds are also expected
today, diminishing later this evening. Tonight, showers and
thunderstorms diminish although lower clouds look to linger
through the night and into Saturday morning. These lower clouds
could bring MVFR to IFR ceilings. Mist or drizzle is also
possible with these, although just the lower ceilings were
included in the TAFs at this time. Clouds gradually lift
Saturday morning with MVFR to perhaps low VFR returning by late
Saturday morning or in the early afternoon. Winds on Saturday
will be more northerly and less breezy.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NDZ040-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin