149
FXUS63 KBIS 061449
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60%) are again
  expected today across western and central North Dakota.

- One more day of shower and thunderstorm chances (30 to 60%) on
  Sunday, with the better chances east.

- A gradual warming and drying trend is still expected for next
  week, with temperatures above normal by the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

No major changes were needed for this update. The heaviest
lightning activity remains generally in the Devil`s Lake Basin
and portions of the James River Valley. This activity will
slowly continue moving north northeast over the next couple
hours before exiting into the the Grand Forks forecast area. We
are still expecting numerous hit or miss showers and storms to
form once again this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Two areas of showers/thunderstorms continue early this morning.
Line of storms continues to flare up along a sfc trough/boundary
as forcing associated with a mid level wave interacts across the
James River Valley. Second area is associated with the base of
the wave, which likely is closed off into a 700-500mb low, with
showers and at times thunderstorms arcing around the circulation
over south central into parts of southwest North Dakota. Both
areas will migrate east with time this morning. Could see
convection persisting over south central ND through much of the
morning based on model projections of the low`s movement. A few
lighter returns elsewhere within the larger mid level trough
over the region. POPs and other hourly weather elements were
updated based on latest observations and trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 504 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Quick update to expand POPs over the James River Valley.
Convection starting to flare up here along the sfc boundary and
in response to the incoming wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Currently, mid level S/WV continues to develop easterly into
the Dakotas, centered over southwest North Dakota, with a sfc
trough extending from south central into northeastern North
Dakota. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms persist along
the sfc trough, with an arc of showers wrapping around the main
circulation area of the mid level wave over my southwest. Expect
the activity along the sfc boundary to slowly diminish early
this morning as the boundary washes out/moves farther east.
Precipitation near the center of the mid level wave should
persist and develop eastward this morning as this feature
continues east along to slightly south of the ND/SD border.
While MLCAPE is decreasing, enough elevated instability present
to maintain thunder wording.

For today, expect another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with an unsettled atmosphere and decent
instability once again present over the local region. Shear
remain minimal so the threat for severe weather remains very
low. Mean flow aloft is weak today with a mid level trough over
the Northern Plains, so some potential for a few heavy rainers
with expected slow moving convection. Non-supercell Tor
parameters (NST) is also similar to the past couple of days, so
wouldn`t be surprised to see more funnel cloud reports during
the daytime. Showers and isolated storms will continue into this
evening, before diminishing later tonight as we lose heating.

Sunday looks like another active day, though we start to see the
better shower/storm coverage pushing more to the east as our
persistent trough sets up more over the Western Great Lakes
region and eastern Dakotas, in response to a strong upper level
ridge developing onshore over the west coastal region.

The aforementioned strong upper level ridge moving into the
western CONUS will continue to slowly nudge eastward through
next week. Ensemble blends continue to keep us in a
north/northwest flow pattern both Monday and Tuesday, and sure
enough NBM has now come in with some low POPs over my far east
both days. Most of our area will remain dry, though any wave
within the flow aloft could fire off diurnally driven
convection. Temperatures are still favored to slowly warm
through next week, finally approaching seasonal normal values
(low/mid 80s) by the middle of the week. Once the ridge moves
into and across the Rockies mid to late next week, temperatures
are favored to be above normal and the weather will be mainly
dry. High temperatures Thursday - Saturday are favored to be
well into the 80s and into the low/mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over south
central ND and across the James River Valley this morning,
impacting KJMS and KBIS. The coverage of showers and storms is
once again expected to become more widespread across the state
this afternoon. Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions
and light winds are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH